Became known the possible parameters of one of the largest public-private agreements - the creation of a labeling system, which in the future will cover a significant part of the commodity flows in Russia. The draft document was sent to the Ministry of Industry and Trade, said the representative of the Center for Advanced Technology Development (CGPT), the operator of the system, which is 50% owned by USM Holdings Alisher Usmanov and 25% state corporation Rostek and Managing Partner Almaz Capital Partners Alexander Galitsky.
The cost of creating the system is estimated at 205.7 billion rubles. for 15 years, told a person close to the CTPT, and two federal officials: 68 billion - capital costs and 137.7 billion - operating. State investments are not provided: the investor's expenses will be paid by producers and consumers. For its services, the CRTP is going to take 50 kopecks. excluding VAT for each unit of the labeled goods (except for vital medicines, cheaper than 20 rubles - their CRGT marks for free). In addition, in the future the company is going to earn on the sale of analysts. On average, the first seven years of the project annually, the MDGS expects to receive a profit of 1.5 billion rubles. and go on payback for this time with a return of 16%, follows from the draft agreement. From the state the operator will receive exclusive rights to the information system of marking, which was created by the Federal Tax Service.
The private partner takes all the costs and risks of creating the system, confirms the representative of the Ministry of Industry and Trade, and the state ensures the timely acceptance of all documents. The ministry, he said, sent the main terms of the agreement to the government. The representative of Deputy Prime Minister Maxim Akimov, who oversees the marking, declined to comment.
The main costs are the purchase of equipment for registering the issue of the goods being marked. It is produced by Trekmark - a joint venture of the CRTP, RFPI and the Swiss SICPA. Manufacturers of goods that are waiting for marking, as well as medical institutions and pharmacies will receive these registrars for free. Another line of expenditure is the creation of the marking system itself. The costs are distributed depending on the schedule of connection to the system of new commodity groups.
The project of marking started in 2016 with fur products. Now they are labeled with drugs by the Federal Tax Service, alcohol - the system of the EGAIS, tobacco and shoes - CTRPT. But until 2024, under the control of the CRPT, all groups of goods will pass, the first 12 categories - from perfume and tires to cameras and bed linen - from 2019. The operator of the CRTP system became without competition by decision of Premier Dmitry Medvedev.
Sberbank also wanted to participate in the project. In early June, its president, German Gref, proposed in a letter to Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Kozak to use different operators for different product groups, including Sberbank, and also allowed the creation of a joint venture with Rostekh. Negotiations are still ongoing, Sberbank has not received a refusal, says a person close to the bank. The representative of the Savings Bank declined to comment.
The project of marking for capital costs is comparable to the largest PPP transport projects, notes Sergey Luzan, director of PwC. For example, with sections of the toll road Moscow - St. Petersburg, tram projects in St. Petersburg. For the CRTP, the project can be very profitable, says partner of the "Kachkin and partners" bureau, Denis Kachkin, a return on equity of 16% is not common now, usually 11-13%. Many PPP projects assume a profitability below 16%, and the payback period for the majority is 15 years or more, says Luzan, in addition, the investor can receive additional income by attracting "daughters" for the production of equipment and supplies.
Profitability of 16% for such projects without tax benefits is not super high, partner EY Dmitry Kovalev does not agree, the payback period is long enough, the risks of the private party are significant, including the emergence of competitors. Taking into account the complexity and scale of the project, the return of 16% is the minimum allowed for business with existing financial risks, said the representative of the CGTP.
With the help of marking, the state expects to combat illegal products and the gray sector. According to the estimations of the CWTA, tax collections after the introduction of the system will grow by 360 billion rubles. But there are indirect effects: increased demand for goods, increased labor productivity. The success of the project will depend directly on whether the turnover of labeled products will become universal, from the value of the brand, as well as from covering the budget by unforeseen costs, warns Luzan.
Financial parameters of the agreement may still change. So far only 13 groups of goods are included in the model, the decision to label which has already been taken by the government (and also taking into account the labeling of dairy products). In addition, some risks are not taken into account, including because of unreliable statistics on the production of goods, so it is not clear how much the registrars will purchase, says a person close to the project. Another risk is whether laws will be signed on time to make the goods on the list labeled, he continues, all this can reduce annual revenue by 10-20%.
The definition of the MDGT is not liked by the only operator in the government, two federal officials know, even Akimov is dissatisfied with the appointment of the CRTP project operator without a tender. The creation of another operator can take a long time, Kovalev believes. It is also not clear how to compete in such a system: if the cost of a service is lowered, the business will choose a cheaper option, and in parallel several information systems will not be effective, he argues. Competition in the project can be developed, for example by giving the creation of a catalog of goods to different operators, says the official. The design of the label is inherently reminiscent of "Plato", says Ilya Skripnikov, a PPP lawyer, but it will be necessary to pay not only carriers but the entire country. This project, too, without competition, was taken by the RTTIS company (owned by Arkady Rotenberg's son Igor and the RT-invest fund, owned by Rostekh and Andrei Shipelov) at the insistence of Rostekh CEO Sergei Chemezov.