Andrey Birzhin chased the falling Moscow real estate

Glorax Group, which belongs to scandalous businessman Andrey Birzhin, intends to sell its near Moscow road-building assets, and to invest the money in the purchase of sites for the construction of housing in Moscow. The only problem is that the housing market in the capital is on the verge of collapse.
The reason for this step was explained by Mr. Birzhin himself last year: the desire to move away from the intersection to state budgets. The step is interesting, the only problem is that the housing market in the Russian capital is overcrowded and is on the verge of collapse.

As reported by the publication "Vedomosti", Glorax Group businessman Andrei Birzhin put up for sale the firm "Mosavtodor and partners" (IIP), specializing in the construction of transport infrastructure. Recall, IIP is one of the oldest such construction companies and was established in 1991. Among its projects - Open a tunnel with two overpasses on the route Moscow - Yaroslavl, overpass on the highway Moscow - Tuma - Kasimov, 220-meter bridge over the channel to them. Moscow in the Yakhroma, Likhachevskoe highway in Khimki, and so on.

The transaction value can reach up to 1.5 billion rubles (up to $ 30 million). Interviewed by Vedomosti, experts consider this amount justifiable, if only based on the land holdings of the IIP - its main production asset, Vnukovo Road Company owns up to 4 hectares of land in Vnukovo in the very center of New Moscow. The reasons for leaving the market of road infrastructure construction in an interview with servicing in July 2016 were told by the head of the Glorax Group:

- Four years ago, when the road assets were purchased, I wanted 30% of the total revenue to be budget funds. About two years ago, it was decided to completely withdraw from the intersections with state budgets. I do not think that that experience was a mistake. An error is when you need to cross out the red marker. Make your eyes sad. I'll have a drink with the port accountant. At us not so. We tried, achieved good results. And yet they decided not to continue. There is too much specificity in working with state budgets, "a successful businessman explained with a touch of sadness. Note that in 2013 Mr. Birzhin left the development company "Tekta" allegedly with a scandal: he squandered in an unknown direction millions of dollars belonging to its other shareholders.

Now Mr. Birzhin has stepped up his efforts in the field of residential real estate in St. Petersburg, where he "finishes" the three hanging residential projects of the company PSM-Classic and builds up 4.5 hectares of territory on Vasileostrovsky reclamation. As reported in December 2016 the newspaper "Fontanka", the project is very controversial and risky, and even in Smolny there were doubts about its feasibility. Despite this, the company Birzhin managed to press a rise in the height of the building on the soiled grounds from 40 to 69 meters. As you can see, there are no problems with the administrative resource of Andrei Birzhin in the northern capital.

Then why does not he like road construction in New Moscow and Moscow region? After all, the Moscow government has already approved new changes to the General Plan for new territories worth up to 1 trillion rubles (about 19 billion dollars!). For example, according to them, in operation it is necessary to enter only streets more than 600 kilometers. Instead, Glorax Group plans to engage in residential and commercial real estate in Moscow and the Moscow region. According to The Mocow Times, "the analysts predict that the pace of development of the construction business - Glorax Development - will provide the company a place in the top five largest Russian builders of housing."

Tempting prospects

Residential real estate in Moscow has always been overrated. However, in the last 2-3 years the situation has changed. Most of the so-called. "Investor" has finally realized that the investments in this market already as 8-10 years are negative yield, and final buyers of housing has become difficult to buy it - no money corny. Despite the fact that the average cost per square meter of housing capital has fallen from 5-6 to 2.5-2.7 thousand dollars (according As a result, developers in Moscow can not timely sell off the commissioned housing and are forced to sometimes "bend" to discounts.

As Kommersant reported recently, "despite the general revival of the primary real estate market in Moscow, developers have not been able to sell 8% of the available supply for more than two years now." All new residential complexes in Moscow are being put into operation, According to Est-a-tet, in February 2017, the supply volume in the primary market of Moscow reached 3 million square meters, an increase of 19.7% compared to the same period last year. February on the primary ynke old Moscow sold 2.54 million square meters of housing -. is 37% more than a year earlier and 0.6% more January indicator.

Therefore, new housing projects in Moscow naturally lead in the future to overstocking this market. According to experts from, the situation looks like this:

"If the volumes of new construction cease to grow for some reason, in the foreseeable future, the cost of a Moscow square meter may lose another 10%, after which the stabilization of demand, supply and prices will come. If new construction continue to grow, prices will fall still A few years, and the depth of decline in ruble terms can be 30-40%. " At the same time, the "bottom" is projected for 2019-2020.

Even worse situation in the suburbs, where sales of primary housing in the DDU in 2014-2016 fell by almost a third (113 against 83 thousand contracts). The area, previously boasting one of the highest rates of commissioning housing - up to 8 million square meters per year, in the country, was at the broken trough. Demand began to flow into Moscow, and in the region, developers are forced to sell apartments at almost the cost price.

- This situation against the background of a reduction in demand is disastrous for the developer, since the incoming cash flow does not meet the needs of the construction. This can lead to serious disruption of the deadline for the delivery of objects up to the bankruptcy of the developer. Now it is not unusual for apartments in high-end residential complexes to cost only 3-7% more than those purchased at the stage of a pit-this reduces the attractiveness of investments in new stages of the project, "said the commercial director of the company Miel-New Buildings "Anna Shishkina. According to her estimate, the average sales drop on the project is 20-30% relative to the planned cash flow.

And since in Moscow in the coming year will be put up for another 3.5 million square meters of housing, the race of the capital and the region to the finish of massive bankruptcies of developers will only continue.

All this means that Russian developers, accustomed to non-stressful and profitable activity - to take loans, somehow build and then sell out "Lohams" concrete rabbitries - will have to face a new reality. When the margin is scanty, when there are few loans, when the buyers have less apartments every 2, if not 3, and the competition with the "colleagues" is simply off scale. Will Andrei Birzhin, who has no experience of working under such conditions, manage with such circumstances, but have only a slightly tarnished reputation and administrative resource? It certainly is always needed, but how to use it to force losing people to buy the Glorax Group lined concrete pencil boxes?