The situation resembles a bubble that will burst sooner or later. Construction companies today literally vacuuming customers. Square meters are getting cheaper, and advertising budgets are growing. Buyers of apartments in still unbuilt houses are promised a convenient infrastructure and beautiful architecture; if from the new microdistrict in the region will be visible MKAD, then in advertising articles write that the object is located 20 minutes from the center of Moscow. Some analysts compare this with the situation that preceded the mass mopping up of the banking sector - due to problems with liquidity, banks lured customers with high interest on deposits. Developers attract investors, offering them apartments near the Moscow Ring Road at a price of 2 million rubles. At the same time, more and more news is being received about the financial problems of developers and the repeated breakdowns of the delivery deadlines.
Pay and wait
For examples, you do not need to go far. Right after the New Year, the "Barkly" corporation once again transferred the deadline for the delivery of apartments of the first stage of the "Medovaya Dolina" LCD. Now the construction is planned to be completed in the second quarter of 2018, initially the company intended to put the object into operation in the first quarter of 2017. Shareholders of the "Honey Valley" are united in social networks and are trying to understand when they will receive the keys to paid and almost built apartments. Many of them say that they are morally ready for a new postponement of terms.
At the end of last year, there were rumors about the financial difficulties of developers who participate in solving the problem of interest holders SU-155. They committed themselves to providing apartments to residents, completion of 12 social facilities, as well as repayment of tax and credit debts of the bankrupt. All this cost "sanator" 9 billion rubles, some interest holders of the city-events Lykovo began to doubt the timely delivery of objects. Fears of people can be understood, because the history of Binbank, which "broke" when other credit institutions were improving, was not forgotten. A bank in comparison with a construction company - a much more transparent organization, the real situation of the developer can be hidden until the very last moment.
Running in the wheel
In 2017, despite a notable shortage of demand, developers continued to bring new projects to the market. There are two reasons for this. First, today the developer invests 20-30% of the cost of the facility at its launching stage, often - even before obtaining a building permit. In such conditions, the project is unprofitable to put under the cloth, it is better to enter the market and start selling the shareholders to start construction. Secondly, in connection with the tightening of legislation and the future replacement of shared construction with project financing (money for builders will rise in price), developers decided to launch a maximum of projects under the "old" rules. In 2018, analysts forecast the launch of a record volume of new buildings - 140 residential and apartment complexes with a total area of 30 million square meters. m, because of this proposal can exceed demand by 2.8 times. In such conditions, the emergence of new "building pyramids", when at the expense of co-investors of one object they finance the construction of another, as did the bankrupt SU-155.
All this would not be so terrible if the sales of apartments grew as confidently as the volumes of construction. But this does not happen. Before the New Year it became known that "LSR Group" - one of the giants of the domestic construction industry - can sell its house-building plant in Moscow, since it is loaded by about 40%. The loss of LSR for the first half of 2017 amounted to 1 billion rubles.
Hope for the budget
To correct their financial situation, developers today are literally fighting to get into the renovation program. Construction Concern "
Krost, which is considered one of the possible beneficiaries of this program, recently said that it is ready to increase its existing capacity by half to build 300 thousand square meters. m. of housing per year. Increase the volume of housing can and other major players. All of them must pay loans to banks, for some, the problem with insufficient demand for apartments can be fatal. By the way, it is known that all troubled banks - "Opening", ICD and BIN actively invested in Moscow real estate. Problems with creditors began precisely when the decline in prices in the market ceased to be compensated by the growth in sales. Experts believe that the prices for apartments in Moscow new buildings will reach the bottom in 2020. It is possible that not all large developers will live to this point.