Blow worth $44 billion: how much can cost the conflict between Russia and Turkey

The loss of the Russian bomber on the Syrian-Turkish border threatens the extensive trade and economic relations between Russia and Turkey. RBC investigates, what is at stake.
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Destruction on Tuesday by the Turkish Air Force of the Russian bombers, which Putin has called "stab in the back of the accomplices of terrorism" can not only put an end to plans for the expansion of bilateral trade between Russia and Turkey, but it threatens to rupture and economic ties.

It is already clear that the risk the tourism industry - Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Rosturizm already recommended Russians to refrain from trips to Turkey. Will there be other consequences - it is not clear: until all discussions on the bill, which measures may lead to an incident - a presidential theme, say two sources of financial and economic bloc in the government bureaucracy. The government, according to their data, waiting for signals from the Kremlin, and to discuss possible trade and economic measures against Turkey have not started.

Trading at $ 44 billion

At stake - the mutual trade worth more than $ 30 billion a year and more than $ 2 billion in cumulative mutual investment. Turkey - the fifth largest trade partner of Russia with a share of 4.6% of the Russian trade with the outside world (according to the FCS in January-September of the current year). On this exponentsth Turkey is second only to China, Germany, the Netherlands and Italy, but it is superior to Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine (each separately).

Trade turnover between Russia and Turkey was $ 31 billion in 2014, for the first nine months of 2015 - $ 18.1 billion, of which $ 15 billion - this is Russian exports to Turkey (Turkish imports of goods amounted to just over $ 3 billion). And in view of trade in services of the Russian-Turkish figures are even higher: for example, in 2014 the turnover of goods and services amounted to almost $ 44 billion.

Two months ago, when the Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan arrived in Moscow, he said Russian President Vladimir Putin that Russia and Turkey trade in 2023 is expected to reach $ 100 billion These ambitions did not look fantastic:. On a background of discord between Russia and the West has not joined sanctions Turkey has positioned itself as a particularly promising economic partner. "Tensions between the West and Russia over the Ukrainian crisis may open a new era and set new parameters in the Turkish-Russian relations" - with the hope of celebrated Turkish edition of Journal of Turkish Weekly in August.

But alreadyin September, Russia started to bomb the Syrian rebels. This provoked protests from Turkey, for which Syria has always been a sphere of immediate interests.

Dreams of a free trade

"Russia and Turkey were good trade relations, and the reasons for the deterioration was not", - regrets director of applied research at NES Natalia Volchkova. In March, Deputy Minister of Economy of Turkey Adnan Yildirim said that the agenda is the issue of free trade zone between Russia and Turkey. A month ago, the Minister of Economic Development Alexei Ulyukayev stated that Russia and Turkey sign agreement on free trade area in services and investment.

Since 2009, the project "Simplified customs corridor" operates between Russia and Turkey. Its essence lies in the fact that Turkish companies provide the necessary information to customs officials in Turkey on transported goods, and the Turkish Customs sends it directly to the Russian colleagues. As a result, Turkish companies are given priority at checkpoints at the Russian customs and minimize customs inspection, "with the exceptionit cases related to the struggle against customs violations and smuggling ", states on the website of the FCS.

Russia mainly exports to Turkey natural resources, but also in terms of sales Turkey production in the manufacturing sector - a good market, said Volchkov. Imports from Turkey now is a fairly diversified basket of consumer goods, says the expert. Many representatives of the Russian construction industry tied to Turkish goods, and rebuilding relationships, the search for new suppliers will be for them a tangible loss.

According to customs statistics, almost half of Russian exports to Turkey accounted for goods under a secret code. In the first nine months of 2015 for the classified items have passed the goods on $ 6.06 billion, according to calculations of the Moscow International Trade Centre (ITC), based on the FCS data. Perhaps this military production and pipeline gas supplied by "Gazprom" (natural gas in the customs statistics are not held on open code). Then there are mineral products (including petroleum and petroleum products,beggars, iron ore and concentrates), and base metals and products made of them (aluminum, rolling, steel scrap, copper). Their exports for the same period amounted to $ 3.6 billion and $ 3.1 billion respectively.

Turkey, in turn, delivers to Russia products of plant origin ($ 779.3 million for the first nine months of 2015), textiles (about $ 514 million) and miscellaneous equipment ($ 496 million).

Turkey saw a natural candidate for membership in the long term in the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEC), said Volchkov. "The country belongs to the fastest growing in the last 30 years - says the expert. - It's the economy at the crossroads of Eastern Europe and, in this sense similar to us. And it is a reliable partner, both historically and geographically important. " In her opinion, the risk reduction of mutual investments is now great - always conflicts threaten to unexpected losses for the business losses due to the actions of states. According to Rosstat, in 2013 (latest available data), the volume of accumulated direct investment from Turkey in the Russian economy amounted to $ 496 million, and the volume of accumulated Russian direct investments in Turkey's economyin the same year - $ 1.75 billion.