Foreign exchange reserves do not cover the needs of private investment in the country because of the war in the east do not go, so the necessary amount can only take - and exclusively from international fininstitutov and Western governments. But are they ready to fork out, and that will require in return?
For Ukraine, one of the principal financial events in 2014 was the restoration of credit from leading financial institutions - the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, the dialogue which was discontinued under President Yanukovych.
The change of power and the advent of the new government headed by Arseniy Yatsenyuk in March 2014 changed not only the foreign policy of Ukraine, but also its external economic orientation. Perhaps the first decision of the Cabinet was the invitation of the World Bank and the IMF mission to Kiev - to discuss reform program and financing opportunities. Washington, inspired by reform-minded new ministers, was very generous. Already in April, was agreed a multi-billion package of financial assistance: IMF Ukraine has signed a two-year, etc.gram stand-by credit of 17 billion dollars, the World Bank -.. credit for development projects in the $ 3.5 billion pledged 1 billion euros The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development and European Investment Bank.
The money went immediately from May to December, Ukraine has received $ 4.6 billion from the IMF, 2.5 billion dollars - from the World Bank, about one billion euros from the EU to mark the sovereign Eurobonds under US government guarantees a $ 1 billion... and also approved the plan for obtaining EBRD and EIB loans.
However, the funds did not serve for our country stimulate growth. By pulling the bottom, first of all, Russia waged war in the Donetsk and Lugansk regions, each day which cost 100 million USD.
Today Ukraine needs money again. And not only in the reforms. Regardless of the amount, which will be able to attract in 2015, the bulk will go to pay accumulated debts and refinancing, as well as the purchase of energy.
As the Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk, for the last 4 years Ukraine has actually doubled the amount of debt and, therefore, almost all newly attracted Govermentvom borrowings have to send to the repayment and servicing of old debts.
Yatsenyuk has repeatedly pointed out that in 2014 received $ 9 billion. Returnable financial assistance, Ukraine has paid $ 14 billion. External payments.
In 2015th the amount necessary to return the debt, according to expert estimates, will be about $ 10 billion. Add to this the purchase of coal and gas. According to government estimates, the volume of imports of "blue fuel" will be about 20 billion cubic meters at an average price of $ 345. Per thousand cubic meters. The volume of imports and the price of imported coal are being specified.
"According to IMF Ukraine may receive in 2015 to about $ 10.7 billion, -. Analysts predict the international rating agency« Standard & Poor's ». - IMF funds can be extensively used for budgetary purposes and the payment of gas. But this money is not enough to make payments Ukrainian "Naftogaz" Russian monopolist "Gazprom". additional funding "is required in this regard, Ukraine.
In turn, the British newspaper Financial Times referring to the estimated MVF has estimated that Ukraine to prevent the financial collapse in 2015 will need about $ 15 billion. Additional financial assistance.
"The funds will go partly by the IMF as part of the credit programs of the Ukrainian economy, calculated up to 2016 with a total However, this does not cover the funding of $ 17 billion. Required, and therefore it is necessary to negotiate with officials of state and government. And it will not be easy, because the extra money on the market a bit, "- said the Financial Times, adding that in the domestic Ukrainian market there is no resource at all. Except, add, issue of the National Bank. However, we all know what will the uncontrolled printing of money.
IMF: waiting for $ 15 billion
In January 2015, in Kiev again arrive mission of the International Monetary Fund. A few weeks ago she visited the capital of Ukraine - meet with the new government's composition. Technical discussions with the economic bloc of the Cabinet and the leadership of the National Bank have already been completed, so in January on the agenda will be "political PeregOVOR with the authorities. "
In the Fund have repeatedly stressed: the parties must discuss concrete economic reforms - the so-called structural "beacons", which is necessary to achieve by April 2015. Among them - the implementation of the budget, adoption and implementation of effective legislative package to tackle corruption and the implementation of effective measures for the rehabilitation of suffering from chronic diseases of the energy from the restructuring of "Naftogaz" to the settlement of utility tariffs in order to precisely payments, not state appropriations covered the continuing shortage of "Naftogaz" of the budget, which in 2014 amounted to 110 billion USD.
Instead, Kiev asks to change the graphics of funds under the current program stand-by, it would be possible to obtain in February combined tranche not at $ 2.7 billion., As originally planned, but at $ 5 billion.
"We do not demand anything, but we're working on it", - commented on the possibility of a 5-billion tranche of the Minister of Finance Natalia Yaresko.
There is a plan, a maximum - to increase the program creditovaniya IMF from the current $ 17 billion. for another $ 15 billion. Or to prepare a new program for this increase. "If everything goes according to the direction, as we see it, we IMF can realize an increase in funding of Ukraine, the sum of 15 billion already called, and we hope that it will be possible before the end of February, will be implemented this project", - said the first Deputy head of the NBU Alexander Pisaruk.
The IMF prospects for any change would not comment. In late December, the Managing Director of the Fund, Christine Lagarde, in a conversation with the President of Petro Poroshenko welcomed the formation of the parliamentary coalition and the new government, according to the results of the last parliamentary elections in October. According to her, this will contribute to the proper implementation of the policy and the stabilization of the financial and economic situation in Ukraine. The same thought in the course of negotiations with the authorities and expressed the deputy Lagarde - David Lipton, who visited Kiev in mid-December, 2014.
The decision on the revision of the financing will take the IMF Board of Directors. Near its meetingDedicated to Ukraine, to be held in late January - early February 2015. The outcome of the meeting will be, perhaps, the main intrigue of the beginning of the year. And not only for Ukraine: the delay receipt of funds will increase to a maximum risk of default of a sovereign country. "This delay, along with the reduction of state reserves increases the risk of the government's failure to pay its obligations, - note the S & P analysts. - The risk of default is very significant for several months, if circumstances do not change, and the country comes the financial assistance. "
The World Bank and the EIB: the money for development
The effectiveness of cooperation with the IMF will determine the tone of the Ukrainian government negotiations with other creditors - the World Bank, the EBRD and the European Investment Bank, the funds of which today are almost the only source of funding for the country's development programs.
While this resource is not as great as we would like. Of the total amount of the World Bank remains unused is only US $ 1-1.5 billion bailout. "We can do more and we will dedo more, supporting Ukraine in this extremely difficult time, - said the head of the World Bank's representative office in Belarus, Moldova and Ukraine Qimiao Fan. - But it is also important for us to see that the authorities are carrying out reforms to effectively fight corruption, improve the investment climate. "
At the same he insists and head of the EBRD office in Ukraine Sevki Acuner. "This year alone, we have invested in Ukraine about 1 billion euros in a number of loan programs. And we hope to continue at the same rate under the condition of reforming the country. Moreover, we are ready to shift the focus - for example, towards the development of small and medium-sized businesses, if we see movement towards our wishes ", - the head of the EBRD office said.
It is worth noting that the funding from the EBRD in Ukraine at the level of 1 billion euros per year carried out over the past few years. Therefore, it is an increase in funding of our country is not the EBRD.
In turn, the vice-president of the European investment bank Laszlo Baranaev informed that the Board of Directors of the European investitsionnogon the bank decided to finance during the 2014-2016's a number of projects in Ukraine in the amount of EUR 3 billion. About 1 billion euros, our country can get as follows: EUR 350 million - a loan for modernization of the main gas pipeline Urengoy-Pomary-Uzhgorod, 85 million euros - the credit for the development of the agricultural sector projects, € 600 million - loans to small and medium-sized businesses and restoration of Donbass.
By signing the credit agreements prime Yatsenyuk stressed separate loans are aimed at "development of the economy, not to pay off old debts, which gained the previous government." But they must not only earn, work, but also to return. "It is time not only to talk about reforms, it is time to carry them out" - Yatseniuk said, referring to members of the government and parliament.
Donor Conference: Recovery plan for the country
Great expectations the government holds the planned January a large donor conference on revival of Ukraine and restore areas of Donetsk and Lugansk regions. The decision to hold the forum wasAnswered in July - at a meeting of diplomats allied countries Ukraine. Told UNIAN Permanent Representative of Ukraine to the European Union, Ambassador Konstantin Eliseev, the preparations for the event are in full swing. In fact, the key milestones planned for signing documents agreed. In the economic plane, they largely repeat provisions of the Association Agreement between Ukraine and the EU.
The main outcome of the conference should be the presentation of Ukraine's revival plan and a specific agreement on a new financial aid package from donor countries, first of all, the "Big Seven". The amount is not specified, but it is known that Kiev only in the European Union in 2015 asks for the order of 2 billion euros.
"Ukraine was looted and torn. We are in a state of the Russian military aggression. It is very difficult to get out of this crisis on their own. Put another way: without the help of our international partners, it is impossible to do, - said Yatsenyuk. - To get help in order to survive and avoid default, we need international donor conference and recovery plan pageAna. Help just so no one will. For assistance necessary to carry out tough reforms, which all told in the presidential and parliamentary elections. "
"I call on the political forces in Kyiv to carry out reforms, not to talk about them. If someone is looking for an answer to the question - what reform will let statement Leszek Balcerowicz (former Minister of Economy of Poland - UNIAN) and see that the reforms - it is difficult and tough decisions that need to come tomorrow. And for tomorrow, we must fight, "- said the prime minister.
At the same time Yatsenyuk drew attention that the reform plan is defined the coalition agreement of the parliamentary majority and the government work plan, which was approved by a majority coalition in December, 2014. The reforms relate to, first of all, budgetary and fiscal discipline, deregulation and the development of local self-government. Moreover, if you do not spend it now, in the future, the chance may not present itself, the prime minister said.
The importance of immediate decisions on reform of Ukraine and help her release and said the head of the European Council Donald Tusk.
"Do not do itwait until next year, because it can be too late next year. We are talking about financial assistance, and we are ready for it. It will not be such a sum, which Ukraine needs, as these needs are very large, but it is - a serious amount of money, "- said Tusk in the run up to Christmas.
Domestic investors: National Bank will not save
The government forecasts in 2015, the economy's decline of 4.3% with an inflation rate of 13%. Although the Cabinet stressed that the year will be challenging, the economic development evaluation in 2015 better than these. As a result of the expected decline in 2014 will be about 7% with an inflation rate of more than 19%.
Internal development incentives, according to the Cabinet, will be proposed reform. First of all, in the areas of tax and budget on the basis of which the draft budget for 2015 is calculated.
Changes designed package of 44 bills, as emphasized by prime Yatsenyuk - not perfect, but their approval in parliament - the only correct path of development. "We are prepared for radical changes and hopefully the new parliament and the new coalition is also ready for this - Elevationechal Yatsenyuk. - 2015 should be a year of stabilization and clear and stringent regulations with public funds and social benefits. "
"The fact that we are in a difficult situation - it is no secret. What needs to be done, the government is doing. This package of reforms would enable the country to raise additional funds for the financial stabilization of the country ", - he stressed the head of government.
Otherwise, say experts, the country faces an uncontrolled emission of the hryvnia, as the only source of funding. And this despite the fact that the National Bank and so prepared for the role of key domestic investor's country: the draft state budget for 2015 provides for the involvement of the internal market with about 56 billion USD by the issue of government bonds - 36.5 billion UAH will be spent on additional capitalization of banks, and 20 billion - as a resource guarantee Fund deposits of citizens.
This Ukraine sources of receipt of means - both internal and external - are exhausted. Meanwhile, our country has just entered the peak phase of the debt burden on the budget, when you need to return the maximum accumulated debt cardit - all the external and internal loans and Eurobonds.
The Ministry of Finance calms: the international financial institutions are ready to help, and the question of debt restructuring or default is not on the agenda. But this is - for now. According to the forecast of the Ministry of Finance, during the peak debt load 2015 is not over. It will continue until 2018 and will always be accompanied by a search for external, mostly borrowed, resources.
How long Ukraine will be able to borrow money abroad, and most importantly - under what conditions, and what then to repay debts? It remains an open question. But his decision must be clear in the coming months.