The Russian government does not seem prepared for the integration of the Crimea. Official opinions and estimates do not exist, the experts suggest that the Crimea will require a minimum budget of $ 3 billion a year of additional costs. And the first tranche will be required in the operational mode - to avoid the outflow of population, whose standard of living in the first phase will inevitably fall.
The official position of the means in which Russia could do the event to join the Crimea, there was no yesterday. "This issue is only at the political level, nobody will comment on it", - explained the "Y" in one of the Russian agencies. The Finance Ministry refused to answer even questions about the results of which had begun on March 3 communication with representatives of the Crimea on the financial support. Then, at a meeting with Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov assured that the end of the day to prepare "proposals for specific assistance." But since they are not known. On budgetary integration is not willing to talk, and in the State Duma. As explained by "Kommersant" one of the deputies, responsible for the formation of budgetsspot-economic policy, everyone is silent, because "the public sensitive to any assumptions relating to, any specifics can cause a painful response".
How is the referendum of Crimea
6 March Crimean management took the decision to join Russia. For entry into the Russian Federation voted the Supreme Council of autonomy - the same question put to a referendum on March 16. Selecting the Crimea does not mean its immediate entry into Russia, but gives Moscow a powerful lever of influence on the Ukrainian authorities.
Experts also recognize that the integration of a new region in the Russian Federation - a non-trivial before anyone, and never solves the problem. In general, the Crimean accession must in terms of economy of the Russian Federation mean several events. It is the creation of a minimum of transport and energy connectivity with the main area of the country, the region's integration into the financial and budgetary system, the proliferation of social and other obligations to the Russian regions for the residents of the Crimea. Who itself Crimea (excluding Sevastopol having spetsstatus) bypassing Ukraine, based on the tax balance withburs and subsidies, about $ 1.5-2 billion per year. Go about 2.5 million population of the Crimea on the budgetary grants for budgetary security standards, for example, the Stavropol Territory (comparable to the Crimea on the main indicators in the regions of the Russian Federation is not - it can be imagined as Krasnodar region, but without the agro-industrial complex and the population engaged there) will increase the amount of up to $ 2.5-3 billion per year.
The calculation does not apply to standards for road security, which in the Crimea is much less than in Russia. With respect to the Russian Crimea will de facto island, and transport infrastructure spending will be a major need for investment. Sea Crimea supply (including energy) dramatically increase local prices in comparison with the rest of Ukraine, and certainly at least in the early months, will lead to a rapid decline in living standards. Obviously, this would require at least tens of millions of dollars "spetssubsidy" Crimean population in order to prevent the outflow of the population of Ukraine.
Who owns the Crimea
From the point of view of the economy of Crimea, which GRP little more than $ 4 billion, a great loss to Kiev and nullacquisition for Moscow. The region has almost no large-scale enterprises, mostly they are state-owned or owned by local businessmen.
While traces of that in 2014 the money was tacitly reserved in the budget of the Russian Federation, no. "Apparently, it is necessary to take urgent amendment to the law on the budget and at the same time to establish some kind of transition period, as the Crimea to connect to the current approved budget already impossible," - says the head of the Center for Fiscal Policy Galina Courland. How and on what basis will be calculated budgetary assistance to the region, too, is unclear ". Distribution of financial aid to Russia carried out by Rosstat data for the last three years In Crimea, these data are not available." Sources injections are not completely clear. Given that the aid is now beginning the Crimea at the expense of transfers and financial subsidies from the regions, the expert believes that such a mechanism can be used in the future. "We have seen that now the government denies regions whose disastrous financial situation, help, arguing that there is no money in the budget. It is obvious that de Crimeagi may take in the rich regions. "
Problems with the integration of Crimea into the Russian banking system can be solved in a few weeks. Distribution of financial and budgetary policy of the Russian Federation Crimea and Sevastopol will require several months. The relatively simple and can be integrated regulatory environments in the Crimea and the Russian Federation: Ukrainian regulation, as the regulation of the Russian Federation, is based mostly on norms of the USSR, and they changed since 1991 more in Russia than in Ukraine. A separate issue is essential for the sensitive issue of the conversion of the Crimea Ukrainian pension rights in Russia and monetization mainly nemonetizirovannyh Ukrainian benefits in the Crimea by Russian standards. On the basis of the Crimean population sizes, it can also go the tens of millions of dollars a year, and the whole order of the amounts that would be required per year in the first decade to transform Crimea part of Russia, will be probably about $ 30 billion through 2025 - $ 3 billion a year.
Crimea in comparison with the Russian regions
The area of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea is PLOadi Mordovia and is 26.1 thousand sq. m. km (68-th place among the subjects of the RF). In terms of population (1.97 million people) republic could be on the 25th place among the Omsk region and the Primorsky Territory and density (75.37 inhabitants / sq. Km.) - 7 th place after Chechnya but before the Krasnodar Territory.
As the birth rate in 2013 (12.2 per 1 thousand. Population) Crimea would become the 55th in the Russian Federation after the Samara region and to Moscow. As mortality rate (13.7 per 1 thousand.) - 40th on a par with the Irkutsk Oblast and Mari El. The share of the population older than 60 years in the Crimea is 35.6%, while in Russia as a whole - only 19%.
On average wage autonomy would be ranked last in the Russian Federation with the figure of 12 483 rubles. at the current rate. Who is less likely to earn in Dagestan - 17.1 thousand rubles.. Also last Crimea would have been the size of the pension (5541 rubles. In 2013). Who is the worst pensions in Dagestan - 7.8 thousand rubles..
Crimea GRP in 2011 was estimated at 153 billion rubles., Which corresponds to the 61-th place in the ranking of Russian regions (between Buryatia and the Novgorod region). As GDP per capita Authority would take 79 th place (78 thousand rubles.). - After Kalmykia, but in front of Chechnya. In the formeryudzhete Crimea in 2013 from the state budget of Ukraine proceeds were pledged in the amount of 9.9 billion rubles. Gratuitous financial flows from the center of the southern regions of the Russian Federation at times more:.. Dagestan - 70.5 billion rubles, Chechnya - 59.9 billion rubles Stavropol - 46.2 billion rubles. In 2012, Crimea was visited by 6.13 million tourists, each of which brought the budget in average 293.6 rubles. The indicator for the Krasnodar Territory was 363.3 rubles. with 11 million tourists.
The level of crime (1804 recorded crimes per 100 thousand. Population in 2012) Crimea is located between the Murmansk region and Udmurtia. This corresponds to the 56-th place among the Russian regions.