"Dieselgate": where the new head of Volkswagen leads the carmaker

The "diesel scandal" delivered a serious blow to the reputation of Volkswagen and threatens the German concern with billions in fines. RBC looks into the attempts of the new head of VW Matthias Müller to improve the situation.
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First steps

German Chancellor Angela Merkel urged the company to take immediate steps to restore its credibility. That is the goal of the new CEO of the concern, Matthias Müller, who succeeded in the midst of a scandal of long-term head Martin Winterkorn group, called main in the first comments after the appointment: "My primary task - to restore confidence in the Volkswagen Group and make this the best I can with the maximum transparency" . On Monday, it became known that Muller will be accompanied Merkel on her trip to China, which will be held October 29-30. Reuters sources said the head of the group will inform the Chancellor about the course of an internal investigation.

"Diesel scandal" Volkswagen not only the cost of loss of reputation, but also more than € 25 billion capitalization. On the first trading day after the concern has filed claims to the quality of diesel engines, VW shares have fallen by 18.31%, per day its market value fell to € 14,1 billion on September 18 the US Environmental Protection Agency, with € 77 billion to € 62.9 Bln. In total from 21 October has lost 24.26% itss value, down to € 55.52 Bln.

Eliminate the consequences VW scandal will have on the background of falling sales. On Monday, Bloomberg published a statistics of world car sales for the first 9 months, according to which the German company lost the title of the world leader in terms of sales of cars, which has gained in the first half - the first line of the newly published Japanese Toyota. Japanese group in the first nine months of this year sold 7.49 million cars, while VW reached a figure of 7.43 million.

Work on the restoration of trust in Muller started with personnel decisions. Speaking to the team with the first speech after his appointment, Muller actually acknowledged that fraud was involved in the VW management. "Workers who do not occupy positions of leadership should not fear that they will be accused of violations committed at the level of top management", - he said on October 8, referring to the 20 thousand workers VW plant in Wolfsburg.. Muller himself was not involved in the scandal - none of Porsche cars were not equipped with a diesel engine-schemers.

What's wrong with the engines
Developed by Volkswagen in 2009, EA engines 188, 189 and 2008 series are programmed so that when tested in laboratory conditions give some results on exhausts, and in the real world - others do not meet environmental standards "Euro 5". Reveal is able experts in the US Environmental Protection Agency environment (EPA), state that, in actual operation nitrogen oxide emissions could exceed the established norm in the United States nearly 40 times.

According to The Wall Street Journal, after Winterkorn group should leave the three leading engineer: Audi chief engineer Ulrich Hackenberg, head of R & D department, Wolfgang Porsche Hats and Heinz-Jakob Noysser occupying the post of VW's R & D Director. In addition, the position will lose and the head of the US division VW Michael Horn. All in all, a fraud software has been implicated at least 30 group leaders, writes Der Spiegel.

Reduce VW ordinary staff is not going to, but part of the premium will reduce earnings. According to the Handelsblatt, 115 thousand. People working in the VW on permanent contracts, apparently, have to agree to a reduction in the annual bcone. Thus the concern will be able to save at least € 678.5 Mill.

As environmental scandal hit Volkswagen

With 11 million vehicles produced by the VW, installed software (software), which lowers the data on the real level of pollutant emissions

At 10-40 times higher than the level of the established norms of emission of harmful substances vehicles with "anti-environmental" ON

In 27% of the company's capitalization has fallen since the beginning of the scandal (18 September). At 17:30 MSK on October 26 it was € 56.24 billion

8.5 million cars VW has decided to withdraw in the EU

€ 34 billion - in much the company can do with the scandal understating the level of toxicity of emissions, according to the German industrial analyst Stefan Brattselya

$ 18 billion - a fine may be imposed on VW Agency US Environmental Protection Agency

€ 6.5 billion on the company reserved the costs associated with bringing the device eliminates the need for environmental standards to the statutory parameters

€ 5 billion - on so many VW decided to reduce investment. Another € 3 billion comanija expects to save on purchases from suppliers

115 thousand. The VW employees may have to accept a reduction of the annual bonus. This will allow the company to save at least € 678.5 million

Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, Handelsblatt, the company

Save on all

According to international consulting group Evercore, the overall cost of the automaker on the basis of the scandal will make € 28.7 billion over two years (until the end of 2017). According to the analyst of the bank equinet Bank AG Holger Schmidt, now it is impossible to calculate how much it will cost the company potential lawsuits. "If you look at similar trials, we can see that the penalties prescribed for similar offenses are not very big," - RBC Schmidt said. According to a judicial analyst Bloomberg Intelligence Brandon Barnes in the US VW payments on claims of regulators and claims, including the investors, may exceed $ 20 billion. According to estimates of the German industry analyst Stefan Brattselya scandal will cost VW's $ 34 billion. Investment Analyst Firm Sanford C. Bernstein & Co estimates the cost at € 10 billion in 2015 and € 5 billion in 2016.

Only in the US company faces a fine by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in the amount of $ 18 billion. However, the Office may allow the company to pay it in installments. To this can be added the amount of fines in other regions of VW's presence: the investigation carried out in European countries, Japan, India and South Korea. In addition, a separate joint investigation against the prosecutor's office launched VW 27 US states and the US Justice Department initiated in respect of a criminal investigation. On top of all the company offers suits by consumers (at least 325, according to Bloomberg) and investors - financial group Bentham, representing the interests of the latter, preparing to sue the German automaker € 40 billion.

The Russian market is not in danger

"Diesel scandal» Volkswagen will not affect Russia. He told the head of Volkswagen Group Rus Marcus Ozegovich. "The market [diesel] in Russia is very small - we still are the norm" Euro-4 "and discussed" Euro-5 ". US law is quite different. So I do not think that the goodsFLS any problem in Russia ", - he explained (quoted by TASS). Earlier, the head of the Industry and Trade Denis Manturov said that Rosstandart revealed no problems with exhaust from cars Volkswagen. "This applies not only to Volkswagen, but also other manufacturers and diesel engines, and diesel cars," - previously assured Manturov.

Another item of expenditure - return of already sold cars. According to Evercore, the return and re-equipment of revoked VW cars will need to spend € 10 billion. In this environment group announced a halt of sales of diesel cars in the EU with the engines of "Euro-5" (189) EA. Already sold in the EU of 8.5 million and 500 thousand. Cars in the USA with such engines group promised to withdraw last week, agreeing with the decision of the German Federal Office of Road Transport.

According to Müller Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung on 7 October, the company plans to build a temporary specialized center for the conversion of vehicles in each of the countries where the vehicles were presented to him. According to the German industrial analyst Gennady Tsikoridie, conduct technical re-equipment of motor is possible, but it "is neither easy nor cheap" (in quotation WSJ). Bloomberg notes that the installation of the filter urea in diesel engine at normal repairs in the United States costs $ 3.5 thousand.

To cope with the huge unanticipated costs, VW will have to drastically reduce costs. The head of the London office of Evercore Arndt Ellinghorst recalls that VW is the highest level of production costs among the major automakers of the world and work with these costs should be the first task of the new management, thus should be to reduce production costs.

VW management has already approved a number of urgent measures to overcome the crisis. Herbert Diez, head of the brand Volkswagen, announced the reduction of investments by € 1 billion per year (total investment is planned to be reduced by € 5 billion) and the acceleration of cost reduction programs. On purchases from suppliers VW expects to save € 3 billion.

"It is not a fatal blow"

Even with VW Winterkorn said that to cover the costs of faulty software,VW has allocated € 6.5 billion third quarter. According to Holger Schmidt, € 6.5 billion are set aside for VW solutions with replacement of equipment problems, not only to cover the cost of solving technical problems, but also the potential losses from reducing the cost of the commodity produced machinery company. VW also deferred money on marketing to prepare for a more active campaign.

"I do not exclude the possibility that VW will have to sell underperforming assets, such as Bugatti, Lamborghini, etc., but I think that as long as this is not necessary," - says the analyst. VW has already taken a number of measures, enhance the action program for improving the efficiency of up to 2017 in the amount of € 5 billion. In addition, the company is reviewing its capital expenditure program. "We believe that in the next three or four years, VW will be able to reduce this figure to € 10 billion, in our view, the VW is not necessary to sell their assets to meet its financial obligations.", - Concluded the expert.

With € 25 billion of funds in the accounts, for VW it will not be "fatal blow", says Arndt Ellinghorst of Evercore. Automotive DivDefinition VW possessed net liquidity to € 21.5 billion at the end of June, another € 3,4 billion have been bailed out through the sale of stakes in Suzuki Motor Corp.

During that fines automakers


In March 2015 the Japanese manufacturer Honda has been fined by the National Administration of the US Highway Traffic Safety (NHTSA) for $ 70 million. It was found that since 2003 Honda has not informed the NHTSA about 1729 accidents in which people were killed and injured. The companies are required to report all serious accidents, he attempted to explain the violation of the rules of the software error.


In October 2014 NHTSA Ferrari fined $ 3.5 million for the failure of safety reports. For three years, Ferrari did not inform the controller about complaints on the quality of machinery and vehicles alleged defects. The company did not inform the regulator about the three deaths involving their cars. Until 2011, Ferrari was not supposed to give statements, as it is considered a small manufacturer. But then the company has acquired the Italian company Fiat, in connection with which such an obligationshe appeared.


In March 2014 Toyota Motor has signed with the Ministry of Justice of the United States an agreement on the payment of a fine in the amount of $ 1.2 billion. The agreement was the result of the proceedings relating to the hushing up of consumer complaints in the uncontrolled acceleration of the car. Prior to that, Toyota for four years trying to prove that recorded in 2009-2010, cases of uncontrolled acceleration are not associated with defects in cars and offset pad, supposedly clamped the gas pedal. In parallel with the proceedings Toyota was forced to recall about 14 million cars and pay fines in the amount of $ 66 million for a belated review.


In 2011, FAS Russia fined LLC "General Motors Daewoo Auto & Technology CIS" (representation General Motors) for illegal use of the symbols of the Olympic movement. GM began selling Chevrolet cars with the color of the body "Olympic White» (Olympic White). FAS explained that the word olympic is a protected part of a trademark owned by the International Olympic Committee (IOC). GM has not entered into an Agreement for the Usetion of Olympic symbols.


In 2008 and 2009, US authorities fined Mercedes-Benz, respectively, at $ 28.9 million and $ 6.8 million. The German manufacturer selling car in the United States that do not comply with local regulations. The fuel consumption of vehicles imported into the United States, must not exceed 8.6 liters per 100 kilometers. Mercedes-Benz is not the only company fined for violation of this rule. In 2008 and 2009, the US authorities fined by this criterion is worth a total of $ 37 million and $ 13 million respectively.