The primary housing market in Moscow is close to overstocking, realtors warn. According to their forecasts, the rate of new construction in 2018 may be at the level of 2017: this will lead to an excess of supply over demand by 2.8 times. Developers will be in a hurry to bring new projects to the market in order to have time to collect the equity holders' funds before the summer comes into effect new rules that toughen the involvement of co-investors in the construction. As a result, by the end of the year, more than 3 million square meters could be unsold. m.
In 2018, developers will build housing in Moscow in volumes comparable to last year's indicators, which could lead to overstocking of the market, and several local realtors shared their forecasts with Kommersant.
Developers will be in a hurry with the withdrawal of new projects to catch up to the full entry into force of the federal law number 218, toughening requirements for developers when attracting the funds of equity holders, explained the head of work with key partners of Est-a-Tet Roman Rodiontsev. In part, the document came into force in October 2017 (when the compensation fund was launched, where companies should send 1.2% of the cost of each share agreement). The law will fully come into force in July 2018: from this point on, developers will be required to allocate no more than 10% of the project cost to administrative costs and receive a separate permit for each object.
According to Est-a-Tet, in 2017 53 new projects and 86 buildings in already constructed residential complexes (totaling 991 thousand square meters) entered the market. According to preliminary estimates of "Metrium Group", this year the increase may amount to about 600 thousand square meters. m.
The managing partner of the company Maria Litinetskaya says that the total annual volume of housing (all apartments that were on sale at the beginning of the year plus built during the year) within the boundaries of old Moscow in 2018 will be 4.98 million square meters. m (excluding apartments), while in 2017 this figure was at the level of 4.4 million square meters. Now there are about 140 new buildings in different stages of design. Of these, 40-60% will be put up for sale this year, notes Litinetskaya. According to her, more excitement on the market causes an almost complete lack of growth in demand: this year the expected volume of absorption will be 1.78 million square meters. m, last year was 1.7 million square meters. m. "Taking into account the increase in the new supply, it will exceed the demand by 2.8 times," warns Maria Litinetskaya, noting that at the end of 2018 3.2 million square meters could remain unsold. m against 2.7 million square meters. m at the end of 2017. According to Natalya Shatalina, General Director of Miel-Novostroyki, housing sellers expect a further reduction in mortgage rates. "Now a record number of new buildings are exhibited, you can choose from 230 projects," she adds.
Most of the projects, about which the realtors say, while in the paper stage, which makes the risks of overstocking potential, said the head of the analytical center TsIAN Alexei Popov. According to him, it is much more important - whether it will be possible for developers to maintain the pace of sales. Preliminary analysis of data Rosreestra for 2017 showed an increase in the number of transactions in new buildings due to lower mortgage rates and discounts of 10-15%, which developers provided developers. "But constantly giving discounts at the level of 15% will not work," - warns the expert. The pace of sales may decline in projects that are in a highly competitive environment. "If developers want to increase the number of facilities and keep the volume and pace of sales in each residential complex, then there will be dumping," says Rustam Arslanov, Sales Director of Granel Group of Companies, emphasizing that none of the developers will fall below the cost of production.
The head of the Board of Directors of NDV Alexander Khrustalev does not see any serious problems in overstocking the market: in his words, in this situation, developers are already two years. "But in the summer, if the current version of the amendments to the law on shared construction coming into effect is not corrected, many companies will be in a stupor," he concludes.