Russian enterprises in November reduced output by just 3.6% in annual terms, Rosstat said. Such a rapid pace of industry has not fallen a long time - since October 2009. The latest decline in output was in February - it fell by 2.7% due to a leap year in 2016. Before that, production declined in January 2016 - by 0.8% in annual expression.
The indicators fell in all major production sectors: production fell by 1%, processing by 4.7%, gas and electricity production by 6.4%, and water supply by 5.7%. Suddenly coal production fell, gas production continued to decline, production of passenger cars ceased to rebuild, Vladimir Salnikov, deputy director of the Center for Strategic Research, said.
Analysts did not expect such a fall: economists surveyed by Reuters, by contrast, forecasted an increase in industrial production by 0.2% in November and 0.1% in the fourth quarter. True, last November industrial production increased significantly - to 3.4% from 1.6% a month earlier. The fact is that that November was very cold, but this one, on the other hand, was warmer than usual, Salnikov notes. Against the backdrop of a good base last year, industry data for the entire IV quarter will be worse, he warned earlier. If it were not for an "extra" day in October, the industry would have fallen already in the past month, says Salnikov. For the same reason, industry will not grow in December, although there will not be such a fall.
In 2017, the output of industry will grow by 1.4%, economists surveyed by Reuters predicted. In fact, for 11 months it increased by only 1.2%, and even at the expense of the second quarter, when the industry sharply accelerated due to the abnormally cold spring and the "extra" working day in May. As a result, growth in May was 5.6%, in the II quarter - 3.8%. But in June, it began to decline, and in October it turned out to be zero.
The industry is growing within the forecast, although the output has slowed down, says Georgy Ostapkovych, director of the Center for Conduct Research at the Higher School of Economics. Production falls due to the implementation of the OPEC + agreement, and processing is due to the approaching presidential elections, he believes: large producers are "hiding", waiting for changes in taxes and the decision of President Vladimir Putin - what kind of reform program will he choose. The general uncertainty affected the dynamics of the industry, agreed Salnikov.