KAMAZ in the turbulence zone

The automaker in Naberezhnye Chelny is forced to adjust its strategic plans literally on the move. It seems that it is time for Sergey Kogogin to immediately fire his analysts and financiers.

KAMAZ today unveiled its reference points of the business plan for 2014. A key figure associated with the implementation: plans to sell 43 thousand cars in the country and the world markets.. It is interesting that until recently KAMAZ planned to reach next year's figures in 50 thousand cars, and in 2015 -. As much as 67 thousand! Even on the KAMAZ no secret that the prevailing situation in the markets, even this business plan is very optimistic - in fact we are talking about sales of machines at the past and current years. Experts interviewed by "Business Online», noted that the economic outlook in 2014 is very vague and increased competition from European and Chinese manufacturers of trucks KAMAZ will be hard to achieve these parameters.

"The situation will be worse than this year"

KAMAZ today announced a series of key parameters of the business plan for 2014, approved yesterday at a meeting of the Board of Directors, which was held in Moscow under the chairmanship of the Director General of State Corporation "Russian Technologies" Chemezov. According stingy reportedly leaked on light blue yearth horse, whom the Chinese calendar will be the next year will be the year not spurt for KAMAZ (whose totem from time immemorial is the horse), and the hardest year of grueling race with a clear finish. And we can only guess about the mood that prevailed yesterday at the gatherings of Directors of KAMAZ, but obviously the champagne after drinking without much glitter in her eyes. Rather, there must drink bitter, eating salty cucumber Russian ... By the way, the published figures look outwardly acceptable - expected to be implemented in the next year 43 thousand cars, while planned net profit in the amount of 3.35 billion rubles on revenue of about 112.. bln. rubles. All the complexity of the situation KAMAZ know, when you look at the figures in the context of the declared plans and previous years.

Ksatati speaking, the spokesperson of the auto giant Chelny Oleg Afanasyev admitted in a conversation with the correspondent of "BUSINESS Online», that the Board of Directors meeting it was suggested that this is an optimistic business plan and it will be difficult to perform. "But if you do not set ourselves ambitious goals, then nothing substantial or dobesya. With regard to the results of the work in 2013, the final figures yet, orders are still running, but is expected to be realized from 42 to 43 thousand cars. And in 2014, according to forecasts, the market situation will be worse than this year, but we have set ourselves the target of increasing its market share. We hope that to some extent in this task, we will help the new long-haul tractor "KAMAZ-5490", which will be implemented in the amount of 2 thousand pieces, "- said Afanasiev.

Note that KAMAZ plans for 2013 were adjusted to reflect the current market conditions. So, in 2012 the auto giant sold 45 thousand. Cars (it was made more than 51 thousand. Vehicle sets). Revenue (data RAS) was then 111 billion. Rubles, profit 4.9 billion.

In 2013 KAMAZ intended to at least keep the bar, the business plan originally suggested implementation also 45 thousand vehicles, revenue is expected to reach 121 billion rubles, net profit -.. 4.3 bln. Rubles. Back in August Kogoghin he said that the plan to 45 thousand. Machines remain in force. But ... in September at an exhibition in Moscow auto giant's CEObyavil that intends to release 1.7 thousand. machines (minus 3.8%) less than planned. Kogoghin then stated that this is due to the market situation, and said that the reduction of impact on financial performance. At the same time, to avoid overstocking, KAMAZ has introduced a four-day working week.

Recent reports of the company confirmed that the implementation of the plan there is a problem. As the analytical "Business Online» newspaper office, according to the published quarterly report RAS revenue of OJSC "KAMAZ" fell by 6%, from 82.09 billion rubles for the first 9 months of 2012 to 77.19 billion rubles for the first 9 months of 2013.. . The decline marked, and not the fact that for the fourth quarter auto giant will be able to catch up with the plan. Today Afanasiev informed "BUSINESS Online», that KAMAZ for 11 months of this year sold a little less than 39 thousand. Machines. That is to execute the business plan adjusted version of the fall, it is necessary to auto giant in December to sell for about 4 - 4.5 thousand cars.. As far as this is feasible in a falling market - a serious matter.

The main reason for what is happening - the overall negative situation on the market forommercheskih car that is derived from the cold winds that blow in Russia are poorly defined macroeconomics. Thus, according to the data of "ASM-Holding", the Russian truck sales in January-September 2013 amounted to 213.9 thousand. Units, down 19.3% compared to the first nine months of last year. Reducing the demand for large-capacity commercial vehicles due to the reduction of investment programs. Rosstat reports that investment in fixed assets in January-October 2013 decreased by 1.2% compared to the same period last year. Taking into account the preservation of the current dynamics of the Russian economy would wipe about 150 billion. Rubles in comparison with the investments for the year 2012 (12.28 trillion. Rubles).

Against this depressing background to KAMAZ obviously raises the question thorough review of all its policies. And not only plans for the year. By the way, before it was envisaged that in 2014 KAMAZ realizes 50 thousand. Machines (Afanasiev confirmed to us that). According to him, the figures for each year are adjusted based on the actual situation on the market.

And indeed, if the end of 2010year KAMAZ voiced strategic development program, which included the sale in 2015 to 67 thousand. machines, now online KAMAZ already listed in the figure of 60 thousand. machines. Similarly, by 2020, three years ago, KAMAZ calculated to leave at this time for the implementation of 100 thousand cars, and now the figure is adjusted to 80 thousand.. Do not be surprised that these figures are not final:. For example, if in 2014 auto giant will sell 43 thousand cars, as it was announced in the received yesterday a business plan, how it will be possible next year to make a breakthrough just before the 60 thousand machines. 2015, ie once a quarter? After all, miracles in the market and in the global economy is clearly not expected.

By the way, due to the above Kogogin Chemezov and time to reflect on the adequacy of the analytical and financial services at KAMAZ. It is understandable that Russia in terms of macroeconomics is in a zone of turbulence. However, like the rest of the world. For adequate economists in Russia (and the world) is clear as the day for a long time - at least since 2008, when the global crisis has brought down the entire western model of unrestrained growth on the basis of the pumping of the consumer demand. Unless we canbut it was to draw optimistic forecasts to 2020, providing a fantastic annual growth of industrial production and sales of the product, which is the trucks of KAMAZ? Life has shown that forecasts and KAMAZ plans have failed - in fact, plans for the year had to be revised several times a year! I would like to stress that if such a mess with the strategy comes at KAMAZ, where the head of the works most appropriate "general" of the industry in Tatarstan Sergey Kogoghin face (you can remember its optimization program, invitation Tomas Navratil, refusal to finance a football club, etc. . - circumstantial evidence as KAMAZ is preparing for the crisis, a lot), then in that case what to expect from other companies in the country? It is clear, as they are ready for a new phase of the crisis ...

"While the prospects of very vague"

Experts interviewed by the newspaper "Business Online», also believe that the business plan of KAMAZ for 2014 looks very optimistic and execute it in today's economic reality will not be easy.

Azat TimerhANTONOV - leading analysts of "AUTOSTAT" agency:

- Promulgated the figure of the business plan of KAMAZ at the level of 43 thousand cars, in principle, the real, but we must bear in mind what scenario will develop the overall market and the automotive industry in particular. I believe that the development of the pessimistic scenario KAMAZ in 2014 be able to sell only about 40 thousand cars, the optimistic variant - about 45 thousand. Which scenario will depend on the economic development. Until we have a very vague prospects. We are in the "AUTOSTAT" believe that the development of the automotive industry in 2014 will still closer to the pessimistic scenario. Because the government has no concrete plan yet how to bring the economy to a new level. They are contrary corrected GDP growth forecast downward. The forecast in 2014 with pessimistic scenario, in my opinion, generally less than 1 percent of mortgaged.

Nikolai Mordovtsev - deputy chief of the "Flight" magazine editor (Moscow):

- I think that KAMAZ took a rather optimistic plan, let's see how things will develop in reality. In thisode many producers noted a drop in sales. Final figures the results of 2013 will be announced in late February 2014, but it is now clear that the drop in sales in various grades ranging from 10 to even 20 percent. We are talking about the European producers, on the MAZ. I think the downward trend in sales, unfortunately, will continue in 2014.

As for KAMAZ, it focuses on new main tractors, but in 2014 the volume of production of these machines, I think, is still quite limited. Selling them will not be easy, KAMAZ will break to pieces on their vehicles opinion truckers, and model 5490 should help. As for the other models, it is probably quite successful sale will "KAMAZ" building trends, think well go cars with engines "Cummins". In addition, demand for machines for municipal services, road services. This uniquely successful machine.

For the price KAMAZ great benefits from the Europeans, and the machines have become interesting because of the European component, but not so simple. The Chinese automobile, Perhaps comparable in price, but in their cars a lot of different problems. At the same time, they very quickly change the design rapidly eliminate shortcomings. Therefore, China - a very serious competitor to KAMAZ.


Eugene Goldfain - ex-chief accountant of OJSC "KAMAZ", Honored Economist of Russia:

- 43 thousand cars - it's a very busy background. All global auto industry imposed Euro 3,4,5 and KAMAZ got in the race, in which he will be best to catch up. He imposed and the rejection of its competitive advantages. The advantage of KAMAZ at the time was a large range - number of modifications reached several thousand. Neither the manufacturer did not do. But in the last 15 years KAMAZ is moving in a trend "be like everyone else." All swore about hunching nomenclature, which is directly off the assembly line went to buyers and covered all the transport needs of the country. The elimination of its "natural economy" reduced the overall profitability, but KAMAZ came to the goal - he was like everyone else, I became Tascas technology from the more successful producers, but sooner or later it will lead to the ending of the Soviet Union, which just imposed an arms race. To date, KAMAZ has lost its advantages in cost.

I am very pleased the news of the placement of securities on the development under the state guarantees. I very much hope that these securities will be repaid and KAMAZ will pay for them, or to work out state guarantees. Otherwise, we would be unable to provide cash flow and R & D costs, which are our competitors, especially the Chinese. They with their huge market can reduce costs without looking back. Same with the R & D of the Europeans. Daimler did not want to have business with KAMAZ - up until Kogoghin not proved its lobbying capabilities - that protective measures, and other issues with the country's leadership. I see one of the goals of reduction of Daimler Chinese threat to her arms KAMAZ. China, with its scale, sooner or later will make such costs, that the Europeans will have to look for exits.

New tractor - a very good car, but in othersugom price class, and in our country is no developed culture of maintenance of such equipment, there is no infrastructure. Abandoning their old stages, KAMAZ very risks. In addition, it is dangerous for the country. KAMAZ project initially was that hunching production for it is detrimental, because it was designed to ensure transport security. Remember the transport blockade in Chile - they blocked the supply of spare parts for buses and trucks career, and Salvador Allende's left. The same thing happened in Yugoslavia and the Middle East. And I think that the financial crisis could lead to the fact that each would defend himself. Key patents and solutions are the Europeans and Americans, therefore, they remain leverage over competitors.

We have to see how our dealers will be able to promote a new car. Within 6 - 8 months it will become clear. Tractor - this is another class, it has tried to do several times. In 1999, there was a whole program in 2003 - the same, but go to a decent standard for the price, the quality was not possible. Tractor is wins in the price, but the policy failurefrom small suppliers in favor of large-type joint venture with foreigners risky. These providers can not be replaced, and they have a tendency to a permanent increase in their cost. So I am afraid that will be the base for the growth of the cost of the tractor. A relationship with a joint venture such that KAMAZ is often forced to make concessions, if only to keep the joint venture. For example, the Kamaz will release 40 thousand cars instead of 43, the suppliers, said: pricing was wrong, raise. They may be forced to reduce costs, but whether there will be at KAMAZ ability to manage this process?

Even with the quiet life of 3.35 billion rubles, profit - figure unrealistic. The question is, how well will be worked out policy of working capital. With sufficient working capital amount can be obtained and a large profit, but fear of the provisions could already be used. And yet do not understand the tax component - to the requirements of the Russian Federation by international structures tightened, a tax haven in Russia goes, and Krupnyakov can start to take longer than planned. Here, too, it all depends on how KAMAZ will agree.
I just really hope ling technology. If this process is to continue to feed, it is possible and increase profits. But this inner reserve is also less because of the transfer of industrial added value in the management of the joint venture, which is why KAMAZ shrinks to the level of assembly production.