Kerimov's potassic blitzkrieg

The media and experts have been wondering for the second day whether Suleiman Kerimov had sold shares of "Uralkali" or just intends to do it. 
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The representatives of the billionaire said that he did not get rid of us, however, according to some sources, he can do it under the pressure of not only Belarus, as Russian authorities.
A loud international scandal, the center of which was "Uralkali" may be at hand to some Russian businessmen. Recall CEO Vladislav Baumgertner Potash Company was arrested by security forces in Belarus - he is suspected of abuse of power. The main shareholder of "BRIC" Suleiman Kerimov has been reported, with the filing of Minsk, is already in the list of persons wanted by Interpol - against him a criminal case, according to which Russian businessman faces 10 years in prison and possible confiscation of property. According to "Vedomosti", if the order is issued, Kerimov can hold and detain 193 member states of the Interpol. Lawyer Anatoly Kucherena billionaire said: if this happens - his client will refrain from trips abroad.
According to rumors, this situation can benefit stakeholders. For information about what co-owner & laquo; Uralkali "Suleiman Kerimov allegedly sold his shares to a certain banker from St. Petersburg, gave in his blog on Facebook lawyer Dobrovinsky. "It is a serious source told me that Mr. Suleiman Kerimov Friday sold a large stake, if not all of their shares in the company" Uralkali "no one banker," K "from St. Petersburg. The transaction took place to the satisfaction of both sides, "- says the lawyer.
If reports on Friday that Minsk court upheld the company's general director Vladislav Baumgertner custody Potash Company paper became cheaper by 1.2%, today, against the background of rumors about a possible sale of its stake of Kerimov, the shares of "BRIC" rose in the first minutes of trading on the Moscow stock exchange.
"Uralkali is now rapidly growing, up 5.5%, - the" age "of the analyst THEIR" Finam "Anatoly Vakulenko. - However, it can not be attributed solely to the information on the sale of its package Kerimov. The market as a whole today started the session strong growth, and "Uralkali" paper, since relatively low for the "blue chips" of liquidityusually react to market movements more active. "
Analysts agreed that a mystery buyer "K" can mean the ex-banker and head of the State Construction Committee Vladimir Kogan or Kovalchuk brothers. Forbes carefully reports that talks to buy Kerimov's stake in "Uralkali" still under way - at the company claim the co-owner of AFK "Sistema" Vladimir Yevtushenko, the founder of "Russneft" Mikhail Gutseriev same Kogan. This publication reported a senior source in the government and the top manager of one of the creditor banks billionaire. According to a source close to the most "Uralkali", Kogan even hints that "acting on behalf of Vladimir Putin."
The amount of the potential deal is estimated by experts at $ 4 billion, and say that Karimov could indeed sell its stake in "Uralkali" if he had been offered favorable terms. However, representatives of the billionaire refute the information on the sale of "BRIC" the mysterious banker. "The information is not true", - he told the managing directorsp "Nafta Moscow" Anton Averin.
By the way, a few days before his arrest Baumgertner officially reported that Kerimov by Suleyman Kerimov Foundation fund increased its stake in "Uralkali" by 4.55% - to 21.75%. Other major shareholders are Filaret Galchev (7.0%) and Anatoly Skurov (4.8%). 12.5% ​​of the shares are owned by Wadge Holdings Limited.
Some observers, however, believe that Karimov may well get rid of the asset to get out of the conflict with the "Belarusian Potash Company" (BPC) with minimal losses. Moreover, the criminal case in the Republic of Belarus in a certain way presses both of the businessman, and the "Uralkali". It is not only the Belarusian side has suffered great damage after the termination of the Russian company supplies through BPC, has claims to Karimov - are in great turmoil and Western manufacturers of fertilizers, as well as industry investors. The decision of "BRIC" the refusal of the total exports from the "Belaruskali" and the announcement of the beginning of the dumping quotes brought down other leading potash producers - capitalization of companies in the industry fell by more than 20 billion dollars.
"Uralkali" has one of the lowest production costs, - explained the "age" senior analyst at UK "Aton-Management" Dmitry Golubovskii. - The collapse of the oligopoly hardest hit by its competitors. If we compare the shares falling depth at a time when the news came out, analogues of "BRIC", basically, lost more. But Western companies will not be able to answer anything. If, before Russia's accession to the WTO, they could be protected by quotas, there is nothing to answer right now. If "Uralkali" seriously stepped on the path of the price war, the industry is waiting for consolidation. The weak can only hope that the Russian-Belarusian cartel can be restored. "
But a leading expert of the Criminal Code "Finam Management" Dmitry Baranov doubt that now will be able to restore the old alliance between CCB and "Uralkali" "Then the company will go our separate ways," - said earlier expert "age".
The largest player in the global potash market, in addition to BPC ( "Uralkali" and "Belaruskali"), was Canpotex (Potash Corp, Agrium, Mosaic). "We knew that between" Uralkali "and" Belarusaliem "tensions. But we did not know that this could escalate to such an extent, "- he said to Bloomberg Financial Officer Larry Stranghoner Mosaic. The loss is the representative of Agrium Richard Downie, who said: "hard to say that there is a game, and that reality." "The collapse of the BPC - is the end of the world potash fertilizers, as we know," - says Joel Jackson of BMO Capital Markets.
Foreign manufacturers of potassium is not taking any response, calling for calm market. However, Western and Russian analysts believe that the move "Uralkali" definitely will lead to redistribution of the market and hit all the companies in the sector. "Profit potash producers are now dropped considerably, and investors will react to the rapid exit of potash projects," - Joel Jackson said. "It's amazing! Like Saudi Arabia got OPEC ", - says the" Uralkali "Laura Lau of the Brompton Group.
Four years ago potash fertilizers cost almost $ 900 per ton now prices have dropped to $ 400 and can slide even lower, experts say. As withobschil "Age," the source, worked as an analyst in the industry, the problem is that the good people on the potash market is very small. "This is a small market - the whole world just a few companies. Investment bankers are now really very bad to explain why Karimov made this decision and how it threatens the industry - they do not know themselves ", - says the source" of the Century ".
Meanwhile, the stock market experts say: the market meltdown and the subsequent speculation potash stocks probably been one of the main objectives of Suleiman Kerimov and his top managers. The billionaire and his henchmen were preparing a blitzkrieg on the potash market and began its collapse, according to some observers. According to "Kommersant" if Kerimov fund bought shares of "BRIC" after the collapse of quotations (provoked by the company) - it really could save $ 130 million! Perhaps it is no coincidence, as reported, the structure of owning shares in a Russian potash companies have taken in the early summer of billions of dollars from banks.
Many brokers say that this is not surprising handling marketKerimov is the purpose raider seizure and return on fraudulent transactions, rather than investment and development. "Based on the management style of other assets Kerimov, one can assume that in the event of further losses to cut costs, he will start with the personnel of the enterprises, for example, in Solikamsk and Berezniki," reports "Belteleradiocompany".
Since "Uralkali" fraud affected the entire potash market, and many of his players - it is possible that Western businessmen, they say, will require the "head" of Kerimov. And, in contrast to the Belarusian president to be more assertive and persuasive in these requirements.
According to the deputy director of the Center for Political Information Alexei Panin, international investors are in no way affect the Kerimov, by and large, can not. "Because the decision to withdraw from the situation cartel conditions are well thought out, - said the expert," the Age ". - I think it was analyzed from all points of view considered and surrounded by Kerimov and in the wider circle. The bulk of the investors potash - it is still the minority shareholders. ThisAuger leaves its mark on all the possible consequences. From this perspective, I have some risks can not see. Yes, people are unhappy, but it is a conscious decision. "Uralkali" can really fill up the entire market with cheap potassium - so now we play well, as they say. "
According Panina, the decision of the Belarusian authorities to declare Karimov in the international search is understandable. Firstly, the reduced cost of preparing like to privatize "Belaruskali", and secondly, severely reduced revenues in the economy of Belarus. "The decision to cease trading by BPC - is a big blow to the political positions of Lukashenko's social health of the Republic, because the" Belarusian economic miracle "is costly, and sources have little Lukashenko, - says the analyst. - For the Belarusian president Karimov wanted ads - is the extreme measures that talk about how he is furious about the situation. "
However, Panin said if Karimov will be able to hold - it will be very strange, because a billionaire can not understand how loezno configured Lukashenko. But serious political risks for Suleiman Abusaidovich expert does not see. "He has all the normal relations - Panin said. - Two years ago, for example, Kerimov was considered the second person in the environment after Medvedev Usmanov. If we talk about the redistribution of spheres of influence and approach Petersburg in the potash industry - still has things in Russia are not made. Because Kerimov - a big man, in fact. And so that's just pick it up and push out from the market without paying a fair price, it is impossible. Too many people turn away from Russia. "
It is likely now, Mr. Kerimov and fills its potash price asset. Acquiring the shares of "BRIC" for the paltry price, after they fell to the bottom - the billionaire and his team could easily arrange stuffing information about a possible sale of the company to sell it, but at market value.
As is known, the use of insider information to trade on the stock market, securities fraud are serious criminal offenses for which the perpetrators get multi-year timelineand huge fines. Many observers do not rule out that Western regulators will seriously deal in this situation as "Uralkali" actions of traders affected several countries.
However, it is noteworthy that Vladimir Putin still has not said anything specific in the case of "BRIC" and absentee arrest of Suleiman Kerimov. He said he did not talk with Alexander Lukashenko on this issue, and a lull due to the fact that the problem should be solved, and not to drive it to a dead end. "What is very easy to do, since a noise on this issue. And the problem, of course, needs to be addressed, "the Russian leader said vaguely. Presidential press secretary Dmitry Peskov added that "relations with Belarus union has always priority over the relationship between some corporations or businesses."
But for Kerimov actively intervened First Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov and Deputy Prime Minister Arkady Dvorkovich, called the actions of Minsk "unacceptable." In the margins do not exclude - the two deputy prime minister might have an interest in the machinations of "BRIC" and now fear foreryat own position in the industry and business circles. Especially if Karimov did sell shares to someone, "Vladimir Putin, acting on behalf of."