Money with no roof

Apartments in Moscow have lost all investors.
The popularity of investments in Moscow housing in four years fell by 2.5 times - so, according to CIAN estimates, the share of investment transactions in the primary market decreased. In turn, the profitability of the purchase at the initial stage of construction with the subsequent sale of the apartment in the finished complex decreased by half.

The share of investment deals with housing in the average price range in the primary market in Moscow and the Moscow region in the past four years decreased by almost 2.5 times, calculated at the analytical center of CICA. In 2012, investment transactions accounted for 17.2% of transactions with housing, in the first quarter of this year - 7.1%.

Investment transaction in CICA is considered to be the purchase of two to ten apartments or apartments by one person in one residential complex. According to data provided by CICA on the basis of the processing of extracts from Rosreestr, the share of investment transactions in the total number of transactions with housing fell gradually - on average by 3 percentage points per year. "In the previous decade, deals with investment targets accounted for up to 30%." In the growing market, when entering the project on a foundation pit and fixing profits before renting a house, the price of housing increased 1.8-1.9 times, "explains the head of the analytical center TsIAN Alexei Popov. The average rate on ruble deposits at that time was about 10%, he recalls. For three years (the average period of construction of the house) when investing in housing, the amount obtained from its sale almost doubled, the contribution made it possible to earn about 30% of the initial investment for the same time.

Director of city and suburban real estate Knight Frank Alexei Treschev believes that the share of investment transactions in the segment of elite real estate has seriously decreased.

"Such transactions now account for 3-5% of the purchase, and buy at a low stage of readiness to sell when the house is finished, the difference in price can reach up to 20%," says the expert, noting that the purchase of expensive apartments has practically disappeared for further delivery For rent. In the growing market (until 2008), up to 30% of deals were investment, and the difference in price between the purchase in the excavation and in the finished complex reached 40%, adds Mr. Treshchev.

The managing partner of the "Metrium Group" Maria Litinetskaya says that in the segment of mass housing the price difference could also reach 40-45%. "Now it is 20-25%, which led to a decrease in the return on investment in residential real estate to 6-10% against 15-20% until 2012," recalls Ms. Litinetskaya. According to her, the decrease in the investment attractiveness of housing in Moscow is due not only to a slowdown in price growth: for example, in 2006 the jump was 79%. "The apartment in a new building has ceased to be a unique product because of the growth in supply," emphasizes Maria Litinetskaya. According to TsIAN, in the capital and the Moscow region are currently selling about 140 thousand lots in new buildings and 55 thousand unique offers in the secondary market.

Developers are forced to reduce prices to stimulate sales, and are limited in their ability to increase as the house is ready, as competition with housing in the secondary market has grown. "For developers, the pace of sales has become more significant than revenue per unit area," - believes Alexei Popov. Among other reasons cooling demand from potential investors is an increase in the cost of owning housing due to the shift to calculating taxes at a rate from the cadastral value. So, in the elite segment in 2017-2019, the owners of the 100 most expensive apartments in Moscow will pay to the budget in aggregate 140 million rubles., Savills estimated.

In CICA note that the acute phase of the crisis has passed, but, despite the relatively positive macroeconomic background, rising housing prices, which could restore the investment attractiveness of the market, it is too early to wait. "In part, this is due to the depth of their fall, less than in the crisis of 2008-2009. Nine years ago, in the acute phase of the crisis, prices fell by 30-35%, now - up to 10%," the materials of CICA says.