Moscow renovation is canceled after the election of Sergei Sobyanin

The loud program of the Moscow renovation ended on a porcelain 400 billion rubles from the unspent balances on the accounts of the Moscow government. Money for the remaining 15 years of renovation there is no place to take.
The Moscow mayor openly declared that he was going to again for another term. At the same time, he forgot to mention that the renovation program, broken last year, will obviously be postponed. Why upset the dear Muscovites?

Last week in Gorky Park at the celebration of the birthday of the project "Active citizen" Sergei Sobyanin announced his intention to participate in the election of the mayor. He explained the decision to run for a new term by "feeling a huge responsibility for the unconfined stations, metro lines, roads and junctions", and also "for our schools to be the best in the world, health was the best in the country and one of the best in the world".

Eight years of the best (as drowned by the Moscow official press) mayor of the metropolis, certainly not enough. It takes another ten years to put things in order in Moscow. The elections themselves will be appointed between June 1 and 10, and no one has any doubt about their outcome. But it is noteworthy that in his statements Mr. Sobyanin carefully avoided the topic of large-scale renovation, about which the whole Russian capital rustled a year ago. Then the spears were actively broken, marched rallies for and against it, social networks roared. Now the courtyard is completely silent. Why is that?

But because the Moscow officials in the person of Sergei Sobyanin and Marat Khusnullin will smoothly lower the theme of renovation, while in a couple of years the townsfolk and society as a whole will forget about it. What was the renovation? The kingdom of freebies for certain categories of the population of Moscow at the expense of the state budget. Which also planned to saw Khusnullin and his Tatar "brigade".

Recall that until 2032 for 15 years, the Moscow Foundation for Renovation of residential buildings - a municipal developer - must demolish 5100 obsolete houses, mostly "Khrushchev", and build up to 33 million square meters of housing. Of these, 18 million square meters will be used to relocate about 1.6 million people, and the remaining 15 million square meters will enter the market to pay back costs. Based on the cost of the program of 3 trillion rubles (about 50 billion dollars), the cost of one such "selling" meter was estimated at 140 thousand rubles. This is a lot, but this estimate is far from reality. After all, the cost of "selling meters" will also have to bring down the old "Khrushchev"!

Therefore, even at the stage of this financial model, it was clear that, otherwise, as an addict with addiction, "the largest program of renovation in the world" is called, as it was estimated by the vice-mayor, Marat Khusnullin, it is impossible. Well, or simply admit that such a program in principle under the prevailing conditions is not realizable. What are the external factors? Let's try to list.

Firstly, it is not clear where to get these 3 trillion rubles (in fact, it will take more, but let's take it that way). Even if this amount is decomposed for 15 years, then every year it is necessary to take somewhere from at least 200 billion rubles. In view of the fact that the calculations are preliminary, it can be easily increased by one and a half or even two times. It is useless to attract money from co-investors, and the term of the law on shared construction is already coming to an end. It is possible to attract bank loans secured by Moscow meters, but it is unlikely. Even Sberbank or VTB will not go on such investments for a period of 10-15 years! Theoretically, Moscow could issue bonds or borrow money as a subject, but with this there was a hitch.

In practice, in 2017, about 400 billion rubles from the reserves of the municipal government were allocated for renovation from the Moscow budget. These funds coincide almost to a penny with balances on the accounts of the Moscow government (at the end of 2016 they amounted to 375 billion rubles). This is good, but where else can you get money? The secret is simple: there is no place to take it: the Sobyaninians deftly put into circulation the money canopy accumulated on municipal accounts, and then the grass does not grow.

Okay, let's say we are wrong and in the future Husnullin and Sobyanin will attract credit funds from banks, the government of the Russian Federation and so on (in which it is believed very little). There is a logical, secondly: and at the expense of whom will be paid holiday freeload for expensive Muscovites?

In fact, it turns out this picture: 1.6 million residents of Moscow who are in the renovation program will have the opportunity to change their housing conditions absolutely free of charge. But free cheese does not happen even in a mousetrap (who lives in Russia, he knows that they put a product of palm oil there). Who will pay 15 million "sales" square meters and 18 million square meters for resettled from the Khrushchev Muscovites?
According to the idea sobyanintsev - it will make some "numerous buyers" in the primary market. But that's where to get them? Moscow is already overstocked with new buildings, which are sold quite poorly. The reason is the drop in the purchasing power of the population (which is partially "treated" by an increasingly affordable mortgage), and in a huge offer in the market. Recall that in 2010-2014 in Moscow and the Moscow region began a real construction boom, the results of which have become tangible in recent years.

In Moscow, commissioned under Yuri Luzhkov to 4.5-5 million square meters of housing, in recent years (2016-2017) in the Russian capital were commissioned about 7 million square meters of housing. And more than half of the new buildings were never sold! Previously, developers and officials have never encountered such a phenomenon: Moscow meters have always been bought very quickly. As a result, in 2017, the total supply in the primary market of Moscow real estate amounted to 7.5 million. Compared to 2014, it grew almost 1.5 times! In order not to keep vacant apartments on the balance, developers are ready to sell them in bulk at a discount of 30-40% of the declared price.

But Moscow does not live in a spherical vacuum. Nearby is a huge real estate market near Moscow, where in 2015-2017 years in the system was introduced up to 26 million square meters of housing! As a result, a small layer of real estate buyers in the Moscow region simply does not smear on the giant offer sandwich. Therefore, the official declared prices for the Moscow meter in 160-170 thousand rubles do not correspond to reality - developers are happy to sell them and for 120-130 thousand rubles.

The question arises: who then planned to sell sobyannintsy 15 million square meters of housing in Moscow at a price of 140 thousand rubles, if the Russian capital and the neighboring Moscow region are overstocked with new buildings that have not been sold for several years even at lower prices?

The crisis in the Moscow residential real estate market has long outgrown, in terms of developers, into a real collapse. Nearly all companies are losing profitability, a number of large developers - PIK Group, Urban Group, MR Group, LSR Group - are experiencing serious (often still invisible) financial problems and are in high debt.The Sobyaninskaya renovation will become for them a gravestone and they perfectly understand this Do they need this and the federal and Moscow officials who are covering them?

Third, the annual "release" to the primary housing market in Moscow, another 1-1.5 million square meters of "for sale" will completely ruin the development in the Russian capital. Developers and without it are afraid of excessive overheating, so the rate of commissioning of housing in the building began to decrease smoothly. So, in 2017, put into operation in Moscow was about 3.34 million square meters, which is 14% less than in 2016. In January-February 2018, only 70 thousand square meters were put into operation, which is three times lower than the figures for the same period of 2017.

Simply put, there is no one to finance the Sobyaninsky renovation and a freebie festival for expensive Muscovites. There is no such number of buyers of Moscow housing, who would pay $ 2.4 thousand per square meter in the "largest program of renovation in the world" (they would have to pay even more). There is nowhere to take them. And the Moscow government understands this perfectly.

Therefore, 400 billion rubles allocated last year from unutilized reserves of the city treasury will inevitably be drunk, they will attach something, they will put something into operation, finish something up, and after the election of Sergei Sobyanin for a new term no one will remember the raspiarennoy "renovation ".

Of course, this is a small fraud, but apart from the Moscow budget, no one will suffer, and expensive Moscow residents need to accustom themselves to the simple idea that no one will pay for changing their housing conditions. Freebies is over.