"Pobeda Airlines" plans to buy 30 Boeing of the newest generation

A wholly-owned subsidiary of Aeroflot plans to buy 30 such aircraft in the US for a total of $ 1.7 billion. The Russian "analogue" of MS-21 is not interested in the airline.
"Victory" (100% subsidiary of Aeroflot) plans to buy 30 Boeing 737 MAX 8 aircraft. The airline has announced a competition for consulting services to coordinate this deal. In its terms should include, among other things, the possibility of converting an order into more capacious models of the newest aircraft: Boeing 737 MAX 8-200 or Boeing 737 MAX 10.

Now in the park "Pobedy" 20 Boeing aircraft of the previous generation - Boeing 737-800. Under the contract, four more will be delivered by the end of the year, in the first half of 2019 - six more such airliners.

The catalog price of the Boeing 737 MAX 8 is $ 117.1 million, the most capacious version is the Boeing 737 MAX 8-200 (210 seats in a one-class arrangement) - $ 120.2 million, and the Boeing 737 MAX 10 (up to 230 passengers) - $ 129.9 million MAX is the new re-assorted version of the Boeing 737, the most common aircraft in the world, manufactured since 1967. Boeing 737 MAX, according to the developers, provides 14% less fuel consumption compared to the previous generation, reduced noise and a higher level of comfort.

 With a large order, the price of the aircraft is approximately 50% of the catalog, so that the "Victory" deal with Boeing can be estimated at $ 1.76-1.95 billion. However, as stated in the airline's documentation, the terms of the deal should provide for its conversion into a reverse transaction leasing (sale-and-leaseback): the airline immediately sells it to the leasing company upon receipt of the vessel, and the latter leases it to the leasing company. "Victory" has already concluded such a deal in the previous contract for aircraft, the lessor in it was "Sberbank Leasing".

"Victory" of 15 Boeing 737 MAX 8 aircraft has already been ordered, their delivery will begin in the second half of 2019, says a person close to the Aeroflot group, the order can be increased to 30 aircraft. About the order of 15 MAH wrote and the newspaper "Kommersant".

Expand the park and competitors of "Victory". For example, a group of companies S7, according to its representative, in 2018-2020. plans to get 10 Boeing 737 MAX, the first of them - this fall, as well as 24 aircraft of the Airbus A320neo family, a modernized version of the most mass-produced Airbus family. New aircraft are needed both for updating and for expanding the park, he explains. "We do not focus on market share and plan to grow at a balanced pace," the representative assured.

In January-June 2018, Russian airlines carried 44.9 million passengers. "Victory" - 3.18 million people, this is the sixth indicator among Russian airlines.

 Its first Boeing "Victory" was received in late 2014. Now about 40% of its fleet - planes aged and younger. The park is young, but most likely, part of Boeing under a new contract will be used to replace existing cars, Boris Infantor, general director of consulting company Infomost, suggests. The business model of the loukoster involves the use of new aircraft - not more than three years old, since this period is significantly less than the cost of repairs and maintenance, he explains.

But even if the total Victory fleet is increased to 30 aircraft, it will be a significant addition for the Russian market: it is growing, but not as fast as Victory, Rybak continues. Last year the market recovered from the crisis of 2014-2015, this year it will grow by a maximum of 10%, and in subsequent years the dynamics will slow down, Rybak predicts.

Some of the traffic "Victory" will take away from other airlines, but the main load for new planes will be provided by people who previously did not use airplanes, preferring to travel by rail, the analyst of Aton estimates Mikhail Ganelin. Prospects in this regard are good: the mobility of the population in Russia is still small, he notes. For people to switch to air transport, you need to offer low prices, and for this, you just need to purchase a large number of aircraft (which allows you to receive substantial discounts from manufacturers) with a large capacity, the expert concludes.