Since the beginning of the electoral campaign for early presidential elections only two weeks passed in Ukraine. The Central Election Commission estimated the cost to almost the vote, approved the calendar plan of main arrangements for preparation of early elections and began to follow them. Meanwhile, in the Verkhovna Rada on March 11 has been registered a draft resolution on the postponement of presidential elections in Ukraine on 25 May on 7 December 2014.
The explanatory note to the document by its author, MP from the Party of Regions Eugene Muraev reported that the feasibility of the transfer date of early presidential elections, due to the preparation of the draft law on amendments to the Constitution. Like, all the parliamentary political forces united around the idea of establishing in Ukraine a parliamentary-presidential form of government, but a final decision on the matter may not be until September, 2014.
"Further, immediately after the amendment of the Constitution, according to the law, elections must be scheduled within 90 days. It turns out - December - racesAZAL Eugene Muraev UNIAN. - In addition, I believe that in May, instead of the presidential elections, it is necessary to hold a nationwide referendum and provide answers to questions that today are in the air and give rise to radicalism in both the east and west of the country. When these issues are resolved, perhaps we can find a way and cope with the situation. "
In addition, in the explanatory memorandum to the draft decision to postpone the election date prezidnetskih it comes to that, if you choose the president in May, its powers significantly reduced after September. And this is - is unfair and could lead to "exacerbate the situation in the country and the rejection of a large part of the country's election results."
Unfortunately, the document does not mention that the Ukrainians have also chosen president by giving him not those powers in 2010, which he appropriated later. And what is the need to return to a parliamentary-presidential form of government in Ukraine is due, in particular, of this fact.
Tymoshenko wants to return to politics
It is noteworthy in this situationand another: in the "Fatherland" of a similar document was said before its registration in the Verkhovna Rada. Therefore, consciously or not, but the Party of Regions, initiating consideration of the postponement of the presidential election in December, playing into the hands of ex-premier Yulia Tymoshenko. Last, just released from prison, he made it clear associates that really wants to return to politics and has already announced his intention to run for the post of head of state.
However, stay behind bars had a negative impact not only on the former prime minister's health, but also on the ranking of Lady Yu Recent data of sociological surveys (by the way, carried out by order of the "Fatherland") suggests that Yulia Tymoshenko is no longer a high people's sympathy, even in areas where, traditionally, collected electoral "cream".
Moreover, given that the number of votes the gap with any of his former colleagues on the opposition camp is about 10% (at least) to overcome this "divide" in less than three months, and to increase the rating Tymoshenko fails. Consequently, in the second round, ifJulia generally it gets, loses any of the key opponents.
In this context, the transfer date of the presidential elections is beneficial former prime minister for several reasons. Firstly, until December Tymoshenko may increase its rating by the frustration of the electorate, the leaders of the Maidan. Second, up to this time a society full time to "enjoy" the "new faces" in the power and make the appropriate conclusions. Thirdly, during which Julia can realize his dream in the Verkhovna Rada - a broad coalition with Party of Regions. Given that many deputies are not configured for early parliamentary elections and intend to see out in the composition of Parliament until 2017, the idea Tymoshenko fall into fertile ground.
The reality of these scenarios prove themselves supporters of Tymoshenko. The representatives of the faction "Fatherland", in principle, ready to support the draft resolution on the transfer date for presidential elections in December and claim that, along with part of the Party of Regions and the Communists, even, the vote on it enough. The only thing that, to date, not allowing them to gOVOR about it openly - a high degree of dissatisfaction in society and unambiguous view of the Maidan, "not for Julia stood."
On a final decision is influenced by the data of sociological surveys, according to which the overwhelming majority of Ukrainians support the decision of the Verkhovna Rada to hold early elections of the President of Ukraine - 72.9%, against 20.7% act. In addition, the index finished to the will of citizens has increased from 69% (September 2013) to 79%. Indicating a high degree of interest in the conduct of the presidential elections in the near future, according to sociologists.
However, the return to the power of the script Tymoshenko in the presidential election is supported by no means all of its supporters. In any case, evidenced by the fact that so far no decision NSDC (most of whose members (seven out of thirteen) included in its composition under the quota of the "Fatherland") on the introduction in Ukraine of emergency or martial law because of the aggravation of the situation in Crimea. As is known, such a decision will not allow to hold elections on 25 May.
Moreover, according to Security Council Secretary AndreiParubiya, presidential elections, scheduled for May 25 are "an important moment of the legitimacy of power in Ukraine, which Putin and his propagandists are trying to cast doubt." "Today, it is imperative that May 25 presidential elections took place in Ukraine. Also, we are aware that through their group influence Russia's political leadership is doing everything possible so that these elections were disrupted, "- he said.
In this regard, as it did not want to Acting President and Parliament Speaker Oleksandr Turchynov support Yulia Tymoshenko in her natural desire to receive a carte blanche for 2010 and lead the country (and most poupravlyat Ukraine almost single-handedly extra couple of months), we have to reckon with the opinion of the majority. That is why on March 13, two days after the appearance of the site of the Verkhovna Rada of the infamous draft regulation, Turchinov said that there were no grounds for the transfer of the head of state election date of December there. According to him, Ukraine needs a president with full powers, and elections will be held May 25 exemplary. "And the sooner, the better", - he added the watereduk.
Thus, in his opinion, Ukraine will show the world that can hold a vote without any restrictions, political pressure and falsifications.
Yanukovych did not lose hope to return
Join the aforementioned draft decree miraculously coincided with another tour of fugitive ex-President of Ukraine Viktor Yanukovych in Rostov-on-Don, who, speaking at a briefing, without providing for questions from reporters, said that "the presidential elections, scheduled for May 25 absolutely illegitimate and illegal. " According to Yanukovych, the Verkhovna Rada the appointment of the election does not correspond to the article 103 of the Constitution, so any authorities, which will be formed as a result of these elections will be illegitimate.
Unfortunately, saying this phrase, Mr Yanukovych made two errors. Firstly, it demonstrated "distortion" of norms of the Constitution, which was led. Since, in accordance with Article 103 of the Constitution, the president "elected by the citizens of Ukraine on the basis of universal, equal and directsuffrage by secret ballot for five years. " "In the case of early termination of powers of the President of Ukraine elections are held in the period of ninety days from the date of termination of the authority. The procedure of election of the President of Ukraine is established by law ", - says the article 103 of the Basic Law.
Given that the decision of the Verkhovna Rada on February 22, 2014, that the deputies constitutional majority of votes declared Yanukovych withdrew from the performance of the president's powers, only Russia does not recognize the issue of illegitimate appointment of early presidential elections, is not necessary.
Second, Viktor Fedorovich only voiced the opinion of the Russian political establishment. So, Vladimir Putin said on March 4 that the full communication between Russia and Ukraine will be restored only when "normal situation in Ukraine and held" full elections. "
In turn, the speaker of Russia Valentina Matvienko, the Council of the Federal Assembly of the Federation, after Putin said: "We do not believe that in Ukraine there are conditions for holding fair, pafledged transparent and open elections. And if the government is not aware of and did not return his actions in a constitutional direction, then the legitimacy of the elections, of course, is still open. "
Russia plays a game
What exactly are the representatives of the Russian leadership is meant by the phrase "full-fledged election", however, none of them did not elaborate. But allow Ukrainians vote for a new president on May 25 Moscow is not going to. This explains the operation of the Russian military "to save the Russian-speaking population" in the Crimea. "The duration of the operation is designed for the Russian announcement of the election of May 25, before the situation is in some cases heated and it will try to keep" - says the director of military programs Razumkov Center Nicholas Sungurovsky.
According to him, the purpose of the maximum for Russia in this conflict - to prevent the exit of Ukraine from the influence of the orbit. And it is achieved, including by avoiding to power in Kiev, anti-Russian political forces and bring to Ukraine its "puppet" regime.
Bolshinstof experts are not inclined to consider the possibility of a full-fledged return to the country of Viktor Yanukovych, while he himself, according to the latest statements still harbors some hope of recovery in the post. These aspirations fugitive Ukrainian ex-president and head dispels the Kremlin, Vladimir Putin, Yanukovich temporary shelter in Russia "for humanitarian reasons". In particular, in early March he made against Yanukovich this statement: "I think that the political future he does not. I told him about it. "
March 13 his word in the Ukraine, said Vladimir Putin and godfather - Viktor Medvedchuk: "The President, who made a civil confrontation, loss of life - has lost the moral right to be the head of state ... There is only one scenario Yanukovych returned to Ukraine. He must be brought to justice. "
But it is unlikely that prospect may deceive the fugitive ex-president.
The Party of Regions is no unity
Option of visiting the new protege of Moscow in the ranks of the Party of Regions and does not look very likely. Especially, the latterdoes not hold its own congress, and which will have to determine its presidential candidate. Today we know that the Regions will meet March 22, 2014, after carrying out the illegitimate referendum in Crimea.
However, delaying the nomination of the candidate not only affects the situation in the autonomy. In the ranks of the Party of Regions is no consensus and real support of a representative. We consider a variety of candidates from the most rating the deputy head of the party and faction Sergei Tigipko to present the arrested ex-governor of Kharkiv Mikhail Dobkin.
So, in February, the majority of the members of the Party of Regions were ready to "fit" for Sergei Tigipko. But, as of today, Sergey Leonidovich theme of his potential presidency is trying to get round and is engaged mainly batch saving. In particular, it launched an online campaign in which Tigipko with his colleagues collect opinions about what should be renewed Party of Regions.
"We understand that the party hard today - we go MPs and party members. Yes, weUseful partly responsible for the fact that President Yanukovich has made, and this responsibility is stupid to leave. Nevertheless, we have to organize themselves, to survive in this situation, to nominate its presidential candidate and fight for the presidency, "- he said recently.
Despite the fact that, of all the Regions, at Tigipko - the highest rating from both presidential candidates, - 8% - it does not guarantee even of getting to the second round. Furthermore, as the Tigipko not trust in the party, and the electoral environment. In the first case, his long-standing relationship with businessman Dmitry Firtash, was arrested in Vienna on March 13 to demand the FBI "in connection with a long-term investigation of the FBI on suspicion of involvement in the creation of an organized criminal group" does not have to support from "starodonetskih" regionals. Second - Donbass is in "limbo" state and, according to the mayor of Donetsk Alexander Lukyanchenko, ready to vote for Tigipko like, and for the people's deputy Nestor Shufrych.
However, if Shufrych (2.5% of popular support) and could qualify for nominationin February, today "starodonetskie" Rather, make a bet on the former head of Kharkiv Regional State Administration Mikhail Dobkin. However, the ranking of the candidates, according to the latest findings of sociologists, is 3.6%. And it does not give to the second round is no chance at all.
Some representatives of the Party of Regions is also ready to support the candidacy of the leader of the faction Oleksandr Yefremov or protege of Rinat Akhmetov Alexander Vilkul. However, they also rated extremely small: at first - 3.1%, the second - 0.5%. Because, seriously compete for the presidency is unlikely to succeed.
As the deputies listened to public opinion and win if common sense will see in the coming days, when the draft resolution on the postponement of the presidential elections of December 7, will be submitted to the session hall of the Verkhovna Rada to vote.