Ruble on the verge

The exchange rate of 85 rubles per $1 will cause the collapse of entire sectors in the economy.
Origin source
The officials only recently, and said that the devaluation of the Russian economy - almost a god-send. Say, reduced the cost of Russian goods in dollar terms, and thus increasing their competitiveness in world markets.

In fact, seeing now fold devaluation had a strong support oilmen and metallurgists who hardly felt by the collapse in world commodity markets. In terms of foreign exchange earnings and the devaluation of the ruble for oil is now the price of Urals, which is located on the world market near the mark of $ 30 a barrel, comparable in ruble revenue with a price of $ 75-80.

At the same time, foreign exchange earnings by exporters when they convert into rubles allow the state to fill the budget and fulfill its social responsibilities extremely high. That the head of Sberbank German Gref has publicly announced that 80 rubles. $ 1 - it is a real landmark at prices of $ 25 per barrel. According to him, the new pessimistic scenario for 2016, Sberbank expects that oil will cost just $ 25. "This is a hard scenario. Sunwill depend on how long it will last, "- said German Gref. Previous scenario where oil costs $ 30, he said is irrelevant.

"In the upper echelons of Russian there are two conflicting approaches. First - this is the position of the Ministry of Finance, who is inclined to solve budget problems through devaluation of the ruble. It is thanks to this position was born formula ruble prices for oil. Since the summer of 2013 to the summer of 2015, the Ministry of Finance stubbornly promoted the idea of ​​filling the budget at the expense of the devaluation of the ruble, along with the falling price of oil, - the analyst company "Discovery Agent" Andrey Kochetkov. - Then came the moment of enlightenment, which resulted in a very prosaic fact, namely, a sharp drop in consumption and the heating of inflation. " Accordingly, the second approach is supported by the Central Bank, whose task is to reduce inflation and providing the economy with cheap credit to support economic growth. But in the excessive devaluation of the ruble objectives of the Central Bank were difficult to reach.

"The Central Bank of Russia is in a very difficult situation.of Economists estimate that at current prices for hydrocarbons, we can spend the entire reserve fund by the end of which began in 2016 - the director of "Laboratory of investment technologies" Artem Ginevskii. - There are several ways to replenish the budget: to carry out further devaluation of the ruble, increase public debt, to conduct a large-scale privatization of state property. The national debt - a political decision, and it is hardly possible in today's conditions, when Russia is under severe international sanctions and aims to pursue an independent policy in all directions. " Privatization Experience has also shown that "it was exactly on the paper, but they forgot about the ravines." At the same time, officials in recent years are increasingly pushing for the privatization of the state-owned Sberbank and VTB, which seems extremely doubtful undertaking in a fall of the Russian stock market. So the only real mechanism for fast and, most importantly, reversible meeting the challenge of a policy of further weakening the national currency under the guise of a massive InformDiscount campaign.

However, now TV expert evaluation is not so categorical: in the last days they prefer to say that the fall of the ruble to the dollar to 100 units is hardly possible. But keeping the oil and metallurgy, the government actually has stymied other industries. "From the devaluation of the ruble and rising prices affected not only the population, but also big business, having foreign currency loans and to buy imported equipment abroad. In a difficult situation it turned out to be health care, where practically no domestic high-tech equipment. Now, modern medical equipment has risen by half - with quality drugs, "- says the only part of the problems encountered by non-oil sector, Artem Ginevskii.

The devaluation of goods and services

Of the industries hardest hit by the devaluation of the ruble, you can highlight the tourism and retail. "The problems of the tourism industry associated with the devaluation of the ruble and decline in real incomes, so people have less travel. In industryegativno reflected the closure of the popular destinations among Russian tourists ", - says principal analyst of the bank" Globex "Alex Masherov. "Most of the devaluation of the ruble affected industries, generating revenue in rubles with material items in foreign currency costs and dependent on fluctuations in consumer demand - confirms the general director of the management company Peramo Olga Meshcheryakov. - These industries include, in particular, airlines, car manufacturers, mobile retailers, telecommunications companies. " For example, according to the agency "AUTOSTAT", for the first nine months of 2015 revenues from sales of the automakers new passenger cars compared with similar data from 2014 as a whole fell by 21%, while revenues from the sale of cars - 22%. Despite the fact that the production of many foreign companies located in Russia, most of the components are purchased abroad, so the weakening of the ruble exchange costs of such companies grow. "In mechanical engineering and electronics industries dependent on imported components and 70 & ndash; 90%, but there may be a question not only about the loss, but also about the stagnation of production, as a number of companies in this sector is subject to the approval process ", - adds Olga Meshcheryakov. At the same time announced a large-scale state program on import substitution actually does not work, except for increasing the volume of production of the same pork. High-tech equipment as the domestic companies were able to produce, and can not, and more than a dozen years may be required for a breakthrough in this direction.

"Thus, according to Rosstat, in the first 11 months of 2015 the volume of manufacture of machinery and equipment fell by 11.2% (compared to the same period last year)," - says principal analyst Natalia Binbanka Vaschelyuk. Also it should be noted that the transfer of the ruble weakening in prices of goods and services caused an intensification of inflationary processes in the conditions of a slight increase in nominal incomes reduced their purchasing power and domestic demand respectively, both imported and domestic goods and services. The most revealing this trend in the retail sector. OOrot retail in January-November 2015 decreased by 9.3% compared to that recorded the previous year, and amounted to 24.71 trillion rubles. Inflation in 2015 reached 12.94%. The main contribution to this rise in prices has made it a weakening of the ruble. Of course, lower incomes and high inflation put pressure on the profits of retailers. The "Magnit" data on earnings for 2015 have become worse over the past 10 years, despite the fact that this network has entered the market in the crisis of 1998 and each time used the financial turmoil to increase its share. In recognition of the owners of small grocery stores, the average check for the last year with a slight fall by 20-30%. Many entrepreneurs are forced to reduce retail space, cancel the clock mode, if only to reduce costs.

It turns out that for the sake of big mining companies and for the sake of filling the budget officials are ready to sacrifice not only the incomes of the population, small and medium-sized businesses, and large companies operating in non-primary sectors. "It is indicative downturn in the printing and publishing industries, which was observed in 2015. On the one handus, in the manufacturing process in this area is actively used imported materials and equipment, the cost of growth which followed the weakening of the ruble led to an increase in company costs, - says Natalya Vaschelyuk. - On the other hand, there was a decrease in demand for various types of printed matter. Due to falling real incomes decreased consumer demand for books and magazines, and a reduction in economic activity led to a reduction in promotional materials demand from firms. As a result of 11 months of 2015 the decline in the publishing and printing industries, according to Rosstat, was 10.8%. "

Oil companies also cry

It may seem strange at first, but mining companies are affected by the depreciation of the national currency. "Against the background of falling costs of raw materials it increasingly difficult to develop new projects that require foreign technologies. It's a shame, but even in the oil and gas industry, which is the basis for the country's budget, we do not have so many technologies and equipment. Branch, loaded with taxes, shows good results in terms of production, but not in the financial component,that is now extremely necessary ", - said Artem Ginevskii. "Part of it is. Yet, when it comes to exporting companies, we must not forget that a large part of their revenue - in the currency against which they might cover, including their investment needs. However, a weak ruble stimulates inflation, and it has a negative effect on everyone, including exporters. Weak ruble leads to contraction in domestic demand, which also suffer from the exporting companies, a substantial portion of the proceeds to satisfy the domestic market and "- agrees chief economist FG" BCS "Vladimir Tikhomirov. Therefore, excessive devaluation does not benefit anyone, including the exporters, not to mention those industries that are tied to imports and domestic consumption. Therefore, the Central Bank will be forced to simply support the national currency. The only question is, at what level is this feature that the regulator regards as critical. On the bottom border, we decided quite early as May, when the Office of Elvira Nabiullina start large-scale buying of currency in the domestic market, IKoba to replenish foreign exchange reserves. But once it became clear that the main purpose is to prevent the ruble below 50 rubles. for $ 1 because it could jeopardize the program of import substitution. But at what level is the upper limit, on reaching which the central bank will support the longer the US currency, the ruble, is not yet entirely clear. "The currency is now in a rather free-floating, however, think that the upper limit is at hand", - said the deputy chairman of the "Asian-Pacific Bank" Vyacheslav Andryushkin. "Central Bank intervention in its purest form - as once before - I think, will not be under any level. Although the same 80-85 rubles. $ 1 is already very critical, it is unlikely that the central bank has a target limiting the benchmark for the ruble to the dollar - rather, a benchmark can be set to the ratio of the ruble and oil. Oil falls much faster than the ruble, - said the chief analyst at GK TeleTrade Peter Pushkarev. - If the speed of the fall of the ruble will begin to catch up in terms of the speed of the collapse of oil, not the central bank turns to the work, and will opanizovany fan sales of foreign currency by exporters, as a year ago; plus currency repo mechanism, loans from the Central Bank in the currency reduces the need for currency purchases on the stock exchange; plus the Central Bank, I think, expects free rubles for the purchase of currency is less and less, all have been purchased, and therefore the pressure decreases - currency becomes just nothing to buy, free ruble supply is limited, and here and exporters will quietly go to their sales currency. " Many of those interviewed "To" experts believe that psychologically important mark may be reaching the level of 80-85 rubles. for $ 1. When saving rate close to that level for quite a long time (2-3 months), the Russian market will leave en masse foreign automakers will be closed clothing stores and home appliances, a faster pace will increase unemployment. The implementation of such a scenario is clearly not in the interests of the authorities, so it can be used "final argument" in the form of foreign exchange intervention. But experts warn that in case of preservation in oil prices below $ 30 per barrel throughout 2016of reserves may end by December.