Ruslan Baisarov will build the road Kyzyl-Kuragino with the help of the state

If the private project of the dollar billionaire Baysarov does not pay off, the state will pay the creditors.
One of the largest transport projects in Russia - the Kyzyl-Kuragino railway with a length of 410 km to the coal deposit Elegest - was approved by the government. The concession agreement with investors was agreed upon at the meeting with the deputy chairman of Arkady Dvorkovich, two participants of the discussions said and the representative of Dvorkovich confirmed. The road will cost 192.4 billion rubles.

It will build the road "TEPK Kyzyl-Kuragino", 47.5% in it - in the Tuva Energy Industrial Company (TEPK) Ruslan Baisarov and the "Leader". Each company will invest RUR 28.9 billion, and Leader, which manages the assets of pension funds, arranges the placement of project bonds for 134.6 billion rubles.

5% of "TEPK Kyzyl-Kuragino" will belong to the operator - RZD, it will help to design the road, but not to finance. The participants listed the conditions, where the project was discussed.

A representative of TPPK confirmed the information: it is expected that the "Leader" will place bonds among NPFs and institutional investors and ensure their repurchase. This means that the "Leader" undertakes to take on the balance all the bonds that it will not be able to sell, a rare case, says the consultant for infrastructure projects. 134.6 billion rubles. - this is almost a third of the funds managed by the "Leader", according to data for the first half of the year.

The representative of the Leader declined to comment. But a person close to the "Leader" knows that the company considers for itself the role of a creditor. RZD is the carrier and will oversee the technology, the representative of the company explained.

Baysarov is trying to start developing the Elegest deposit from 2011, when he together with Igor Altushkin purchased the Yenisei industrial company and a license for the deposit at the structures of Mezhprombank Sergei Pugachev. But Mezhprombank went bankrupt, its assets were seized, and then attempts to get state aid - the promised 86 billion rubles. from the national welfare fund the project was not given.

 But without state support, the project will not remain, the participants of the discussion tell. The state guarantees the concessionaire a minimum profitability - if the latter does not receive profit by the end of the year, the budget compensates for the losses. Near the future road there are coal deposits of Severstal, Evraz Group and En +. But to earn the project while will be only on transportation of coal from Элегестского a deposit. Other transportations are not included in the financial model, the representative of the TPPK explains.

But the key financial risk for the state is different. If the agreement is terminated, the state will repay the entire debt to creditors (including before the "Leader"), say two participants in the meetings and a person close to RZD. The state will have to buy out and extinguish bonds, if not immediately, then for a year or two, explains the consultant of infrastructure projects. The bonds have a maturity of 15 years, and the expected yield is "inflation plus 4%," the representative of the TPPK knows.

Above, than at many other projects, the consultant ascertains.

ТЭПК in case of cancellation of the agreement will lose the invested 29 billion rubles., Say three participants of discussions. And the right to use the road will pass to the state, the representative of the TPPK notes. But the investment of the "Leader" (the same 29 billion) is protected in case of termination of the concession due to the concessor's fault, says a person close to the negotiations, without explaining how.

The agreement will be terminated if the TPPK does not build a mining and processing plant with a capacity of 15 million tons for 130.8 billion rubles at the same time as the railway, the discussion participants say. He will make it possible to recoup investments, the representative of the TPPK points out.

 The state can terminate the agreement and in case it has more than two times to pay the minimum received profit, the three participants in the negotiations confirm. "What is more profitable is to wait for the growth of prices for raw materials, providing a guaranteed income to the concessionaire up to 30 years, or stop, immediately paying off the loan," says one of them. There were no similar conditions for termination in other concessions, four consultants believe.

A person close to the "Leader" does not consider a high risk of termination of the agreement. Before it is signed, a contest must be held or the prime minister's order is needed, says the person familiar with the plans of the Leader.

 Concessions with a guarantee of a minimum yield of no more than a dozen, said the executive director of the National Center for PPP Maxim Tkachenko. In this concession, the tariff is set at $ 100 per 1 ton, a person close to RZD knows, and the price of 1 ton of coking coal will be $ 120-130, the representative of TPPK on KPMG.

The TPPK can produce about 6 million tons per year, says Maxim Khudalov, an analyst with ACRA, with revenues ranging from $ 600 million per year, EBITDA of $ 150 million (RUB 9 billion at current rates), a payback period of 10-15 years, - for 20 years. But prices for coking coal are extremely volatile, and modernization of steelmaking capacities in China can reduce coal consumption, Khudalov suggests. And the requirements to the quality of coal are toughened, adds Andrey Tretelnikov, investment director of TKC Partners.

 The representative of Severstal is glad that the project has moved from a dead center, the company will study it. The representative of Evraz Group could not be contacted, En + representative declined to comment.

The construction of the road and the plant is not limited to investments. In a letter to Dvorkovich (chairman of the board of directors of Russian Railways), Russian Railways president Oleg Belozerov wrote that a coal terminal in the port of Vanino is planned - and the total costs for the entire project will amount to 346.6 billion rubles. Russian Railways is expanding the Mezhdurechensk-Taishet section of the Krasnoyarsk Railroad (cost: 45.6 billion rubles) to transport cargo from Kyzyl-Kuragino to the ports of the Far East, the representative of Russian Railways says.

Long road to Elegest

In 2011, Baisarov, together with Altushkin, a partner in the Russian Copper Company, acquired the Yenisei industrial company, and together with it - a license for the field at the structures of Mezhprombank. In the same year, the government approved the concept of building a railway, but 95% of the shares were mortgaged on the loans of the bankrupt Mezhprombank. Baisarov claimed that this threatens construction, but in 2013 he acquired a license for coal mining for 20 years at a starting price of 548 million rubles. and project documentation for a symbolic 6.5 million rubles. He also bought from Gennady Timchenko a blocking stake in Most, which built bridges in Vladivostok for the APEC summit on the Russian Island and for the Olympics in Sochi, later brought the stake to the control. In 2013, First Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov instructed to work out the issue of granting TECC state guarantees for 75% of the project cost, the federal official told Vedomosti. The project claimed 86 billion rubles. from the fund of national welfare, but the money never received.