If Russia did not have the project "GLONASS", he would have immediately come up today as an alternative to the American GPS system. Our officials last month and only compete in ingenuity in terms of independence from the West.
In general, the initiative to establish a national rating agency - good if the ratings are objective data. But since there are no guarantees that the next agency does not fall under the influence of politicians, no, it can turn into a banal settling of accounts.
In late March 2014, after the introduction of the first international sanctions against Russian officials, S & P, Fitch and Moody's have announced a possible downgrade of Russia's sovereign rating, Fitch gave a negative outlook on the ratings of 15 Russian banks and companies 9.
Moody's has placed on the list for review for possible downgrade the ratings of senior unsecured debt ratings on deposits of Sberbank, VTB, Gazprombank, Rosselkhozbank, Agency for Housing Mortgage Lending (AHML) and Vnesheconombank.
Standard & Poor's downgraded the credit ratings of "Rosnano", VTB, Gazprombank, the bank "Russia" and its subsidiaries from "stable" to "negative." The decline also affected the forecast of "Rosneft", "Transneft", "Lukoil", Russian Railways and the Federal Passenger Company (FPK).
Fitch downgraded to "negative" ratings of "Gazprom", "Lukoil", "Gazprom Neft" Bank "SMP", "RusHydro", Russian Railways, "Atomenergoprom", FGC UES, the company "Sukhoi Civil Aircraft", FPK.
Analysts agencies explain the change forecasts a similar change in the forecast for Russia's credit rating. March 20, he was downgraded from "stable" to "negative."
Who is on the market
Register of the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation accredited rating agencies includes seven companies. This branch of the company Fitch Ratings CIS Ltd., representation of the corporation Standard & Poor's International Services, Inc .; Ltd. "Moody's Eastern Europe"; LLC "National Rating Agency"; JSC "Rating Agency" analysis, consulting and marketing ", Joint-Stock Company" Rus-Rating & quot ;; CJSC "rating agency" Expert RA "In Russia there is another rating agency -.. Moody's Interfax Rating Agency This joint venture Moody's (51%) and the" Interfax ", but it is not accredited by the Ministry of Finance.
National payment system in response to the blocking of accounts on the part of Visa and MasterCard, and now a national rating agency in response to the downgrade of the Russian Federation and domestic issuers by international rating agencies. It seems that the left revive the project of national operating system to revive the electronics industry, to come up with an analogue of the domestic Internet and create a national reinsurance company.
First Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov has said that the Russian Federation should appear independent of Western credit rating agency, which is comparable to the "big three" (Fitch, S & P and Moody's), "to the ratings could not be turned on and off by the government's decision."
Historically, Russia, like the rest of the world, enjoys ratings "big toyki. ", based in the US Even our central bank, taking a decision on granting loans, focused on the ratings of the" Big Three World Financial Center today is concentrated in America. "" - explains the head of the analysis of financial institutions, "RIA Rating" Andrew Manko. - US to lend to other countries in accordance with the ratings of US agencies. And it is their right big three "controls over 90% of the global market, but in recent years it appears more and more claims, and not only in Russia's authority agencies staggered during the financial crisis". ":. In the 2000s, Fitch's, Moody's and S & P appropriated first-class ratings US mortgage bonds, and they end up being "garbage". at the end of 2013 the financial control of the European Union announced the results of investigation of the degree of independence of the country ratings "big Three." Then sounded hints that the quality of the estimates can influence private the commercial interests of management companies.
For example, only in 2011 the S & P stripped the US government is the highest credit rating. This happened for the first timee in the history of the "big three", and after the Agency were sharply criticized by almost all developed countries, the ratings were also lowered. At the same time Fitch and Moody's continue to support the US rating at the level of the maximum AAA.
In Russia, the attitude to the "big three" can not be called good, too. In January 2014, VTB CFO Herbert Moos Fitch accused of blackmail. According to him, the agency downgraded the credit score specifically VTB, to compel the bank to conclude a contract with him. In March 2014, Fitch and S & P downgraded the outlook on the sovereign rating of the Russian Federation from "stable" to "negative", and Moody's placed the rating on review for possible downgrade. ". The credibility of the ratings in general undermined over the last few years, it became evident that their politicization, there are examples of clearly exaggerated or understated estimates", - says the vice-president of MTS-Bank Mikhail Yatsenko. Due to the US economic sanctions, Moody's and S & P withdrew the ratings of the bank "Russia" and other Russian companies controlled by businessmen from the "proscription"List. Overall, the ratings were lowered more than 15 Russian banks and companies. Last thing happened with" MDM Bank ". In Moody's last week downgraded its rating from Ba3 to B1," negative "outlook is maintained. Rating of senior unsecured bank debt national currency also downgraded to B1 from of Ba3, downgraded the financial strength rating to E + from D-. "We like to work, and work. Reduced rating to us had no effect, - says the chairman of the board of directors, "MDM Bank" Oleg Vyugin. - Rankings are required to enter the capital markets. Initially, and plotting. And wrong, that they were treated as the reliability rating of the bank. "
"As soon as the United States and Europe have imposed sanctions against the Russian Federation, at the same moment the rating agencies for some reason put on the revision of the sovereign rating of the Russian Federation and lowered the ratings of domestic systemically important banks and corporations, - says Director General of" Rus-Rating "Alexander Zaitsev -. We believe that this is done wrongly, and the reasons for it and there is no increased risks. One gets the feeling that the decrease in ratings producoming off due to subjective factors, we see the situation from the inside, and do not believe that there are prerequisites to reduce the ratings "." - said the head of the National Rating Agency Viktor Chetverikov. - If you look at the economic factors, rather than policy, Russia is still quite stable. "
The Chinese way
Statement by Igor Shuvalov, on the establishment of a national rating agency sounded in time. Now the country operates four rating companies, but none of them have global importance. Even in Russia, the Central Bank does not allow them to work with the pension funds, the money the National Welfare Fund and other sources of funds. However, after the first sanctions by the United States the first deputy chairman of the Bank of Russia Ksenia Yudaeva said that the Central Bank intends to reduce the use of the work with banks rated by international rating agencies, especially in respect of loans under non-market assets. According to her, the Central Bank, together with a group of banks is working on expanding the list of credits granted under the simplified technology. Another example - the Moscow stock exchangesbut planned before the end of 2014 to eliminate the Russian agency from among those whose ratings can be guided in the preparation of the quotation sheet, leaving only the ratings of the "Big Three." Now it's decision to back off.
"Sometimes a dream, and there is an urgent need when you put in the urgency, it is becoming a reality, this project is in any case necessary to avoid speculation that someone depends on the eastern countries, and someone -.. From the western . The system should not be monopolized - said Igor Shuvalov -. what is happening with the rating agencies, it is virtually a world monopoly, and any monopoly - it is bad will the rating agencies to make responsible decisions regardless of the situation in Ukraine on what we.? we can not affect. "
How will the new credit rating agency? "This may be a local agency that is in the public interest of rated entities of the Russian Federation, - says Alexander Zaitsev -. But it is already working RA can do it."
Igor Shuvalov has referred in his statement to the Chinese experience, where formiruetsya new system with the involvement of rating agencies from other countries. "If we talk about the creation of the agency on a global scale, at least on paper, it has already been created, - said Alexander Zaitsev -. It is only then have to start promoting." In 2013, the Chinese rating agency Dagong Global Credit, American Egan-Jones Ratings and Russian "Rus-Rating" rating established a joint project of Universal Credit Rating Group (UCRG). Founders internationally known little. "Rus-Rating" is based analyst Richard Hainsworth CFA is the oldest Russian Armenian, but its market share does not exceed 4%. Hainsworth became CEO UCRG, and chairman of the supervisory board elected by the former French Prime Minister Dominique de Villepin. "Agency The idea is that the composition of its shareholders will include not individuals any country ownership, as is done in the" Big Three ", and local agencies from around the world, primarily because of the BRICS countries, Asia, Latin America and Africa ", - says Alexander Zaitsev. It is unclear when the new structure work. In early summer, the participantsUCRG meet to discuss a plan of action. Although the head of the board of directors UCRG Guan Jianzhong said in 2013 that the creation of a new "global rating services systems" will take seven years. "In the south-eastern circuit rating agency must be set up, - the president of the Center for Strategic Communications Dmitry Abzalov - at least in order to be able to attract investment from the region."
"It's a long process and in five years you can only get the first results, -. Says Andrey Manko -. The main question is -. This rating confirmation of a company takes the time to check the quality historically ratings agencies."
The political situation around Ukraine and, consequently, lower ratings have led to the actual closure of the external financial markets. Interest rates were prohibitive, and many banks do not agree to the new terms, such as Sberbank. When in May 2013 the bank posted a 10-year subordinated Eurobonds in the $ 1 billion of 5.25% per annum, in June - a seven-year $ 1 billion at 5.18% per annums, in October - at $ 2 billion under the 5.125% per annum, at the end of February 2014 he was able to place Eurobonds in the $ 1 billion under 5.5%. But most of it will not do. In late March, Chief Financial Officer of Sberbank Alexander Morozov said that foreign borrowing is not planned, the bankers are waiting for the further development of the political situation in the near future. "For the price of the Savings Bank plays a crucial role, we do not hurry, it is sufficient liquidity at us", - said Alexander Morozov said. He added that now is not the best time for the issue of Eurobonds - is "too vague a situation."
Postponed indefinitely placing bonds VTB, and even the Ministry of Finance canceled several auctions on placement of government bonds because of too high interest rates. "Over the past 2.5 months saw an unprecedented jump in interest rates on debt instruments and bonds of the federal loan, - says a senior analyst of investment company" Rick-Trust "Vladislav Zhukovsky -. Yield on ruble-denominated government bonds with maturities in individual days of March, three to five years reached 10% per annum, and the yield on shortterm bonds exceeded the value of long-term income. This situation has not been since 2009 "." If last year the yield on public debt averaged 5.5-6% per annum, the ruble-denominated 10-year bonds worth 8.2-8.4% per annum at the beginning of the year, and now they are trading at 9-9,1% "- confirms the director of the Department for debt capital markets" Uralsib ", Viktor Orekhov.
The markets froze. But in the negative scenario - the collapse of the Russian banking system - few believe. "This dramatic decline in investment grade, creditworthiness of both Russia and affiliated with the state banking institutions, - describes the situation Vladislav Zhukovsky -. This will lead to the fact that institutional investors sharply start to get rid of the Russian debt market is waiting for a large-scale sale.".
In this case, the question arises about the debt refinancing. "The external debt of banks and corporations today has exceeded a record $ 650 billion, is more than up to the 2008 crisis - wrote in his blog, the director of the Institute of Energy Policy Vladimir Milov -. It is not covered by international reservesB. A significant part of debt - a short-term, you need all the time to refinance. Only our banks this year as the head of Sberbank German Gref said in mid-March at a closed meeting with Medvedev, will have to pay $ 50-70 billion in debt. "Accordingly, the rise in price of money for banks' customers. And so the circle, on the rise.
It should be added that the banks are not everything is in order and routine work. Only in March of deposits of the population because of the fear of sanctions in relation to banks decreased by 2%, and this is no less than about 340 billion rubles. Reports for the first quarter of the Savings Bank suggest that deposits of the population "lost weight" by about 70 billion rubles.
Support for favorites
Accidents will happen, according to respondents, "Ko", experts and bankers. Yes, external debt rather big, but not more than 15 banks have Eurobond issues. And among them is dominated by state-owned banks, in which it is possible to refinance.
"The source of liquidity is the Bank of Russia if it will continue to provide the money, banks will be able to work quite well." - Said Viktor Orekhov. Head invevestment unit M2M Private Bank Alexey Babichev said that the Central Bank kept working mechanisms to deal with liquidity shortages. "The mechanism of refinancing of banks was launched in 2008, and so far he is in the running state", - said the banker.
Support, albeit implicit, is already working. It is no accident the victim of US sanctions the bank "Russia", whose owner is called a friend of Vladimir Putin, Yuri Kovalchuk, replace the Alfa-Bank as a unified settlement organization of the wholesale energy market. Only in commissions the bank earned about 4 billion rubles. in year. Another story - this auction of the bank, the Ministry of Finance and other government agencies to deploy free cash, accounts, etc. Previously, banks were involved in them from the Top 20, but now the conditions drawn up for Top 8 or Top 6. In certain auctions, bankers talk, can supposedly involved only state-owned banks.
By the way, they are already playing a proactive, trying to negotiate with the government and the Central Bank to ease banking regulation and the indefinite extension of the obtained five years ago means Gospadderzhki. As for the establishment of a national rating agency, it will play into the hands of all participants in the financial market, and the state companies and corporations in the first place. The fact that the "big three" can not evaluate Russian companies is higher than the sovereign rating of the Russian Federation. National agencies have no such restriction.