Russia will remain the largest exporter of energy resources

BP predicts that by 2035 oil production in the country will grow by 10%, gas production by 28%.
Russia remains the largest exporter of primary energy commodities in the world, according to a forecast by British Petroleum (BP) on the development of world energy by 2035. The Russian exports provide more than 4% of global demand. At the same time, oil exports will increase to 8.6 million barrels per day, or 430 million tons. In 2016, Russian companies sold abroad 254 million tonnes of oil (CDU TEK data, cited by Interfax). Russia will gradually increase production to 12.2 million barrels per day by 2035, which is 10% more than in 2016 (10.965 million bbl. a day). In that field, Russia will be supassed by Saudi Arabia (OPEC, part of which is that country, produces 48 million barrels per day) and the US (19 million barrels per day), BP says.

Against the background of growing demand in the world markets, by 2035 the gas production in Russia will increase by 28% to 71 billion cubic feet per day, of which 34 billion cubic feet per day will be exported. In respect to gas production, Russia will have the 2nd place in the world, but in contrast to the United States almost all of the production will be carried out in the traditional fields. Oil in Russia will retain a dominant position in the transport sector (92% in 2035). The share of gas in transport will grow from virtually zero today to 1% in 2035. Gas will remain the main fuel for electricity generation, despite the decline in its share from 55% in 2015 to 54% in 2035. The share of nuclear energy will increase from 15 to 18%, hydropower - from 13 to 15%, and coal - will decrease from 15 to 10%. The share of renewable resources will grow from zero to 3% in 2035 The growth of energy consumption in Russia (+ 2% from 2015 to 2035) will be the lowest among the BRIC countries. For example, in India (+ 129%), China (+ 47%) and Brazil (+ 41%), it will grow much faster.

According to BP's forecasts, the global demand for energy from 2015 to 2035 will grow by about 30%, increasing on average by 1.3% per year. At the same time the demand for oil will grow by an average of 0.7% per year (half of the increase will be in China), but the growth rate will gradually slow down. The slowdown in oil demand growth contrasts with the excess of the world's resources of oil, BP says. And that could lead to the fact that the  oil producers with low production costs, in particular the Middle East OPEC members, Russia and the United States, can use the competitive edge to increase market share, displacing oil producers with higher cost.

BP is the first major foreign analytical service, which believed in the long-term growth of oil production in Russia, said deputy director of the Institute of Energy and Finance Alexey Belogoryev: "The company gave a high grade." In his opinion, to achieve the production level of 12.2 million barrels per day requires a change in the tax regime and start of production on the Arctic shelf from 2027. The exports will also grow due to the reduction in processing. Russia can maintain the current share of world trade in oil at the level of 12-13%, he adds.