Agreement on a joint venture for the development, production and sales of wide-body long-haul aircraft (SHFDMS) signed June 25 in Beijing, the leaders of the United Aircraft Corporation (UAC; more than 95% - the state) and Chinese state-owned COMAC. In Russia the next plane is called: SHFDMS in China - S929, in November showed COMAC layout at an air show in Zhuhai.
"Vedomosti" familiar with the technical and economic substantiation of the project, which was prepared by the KLA, two federal official and a person close to the KLA, have confirmed it is correct. The first firm contract for SHFDMS scheduled to conclude in 2019, the first flight - in 2023, supplies the start - in 2026, the document says. There will be three SHFDMS model base - 280 passengers, the program will last until 2045
At the start of the discussion of the project was the idea of medium-range aircraft with increased capacity for the Chinese market with its huge population, but decided to do long-haul aircraft for the world market - in a segment where no one even tried to break the duopoly Airbus and Boeing, says a federal official.
SHFDMS will be 10-15% more efficient than the Boeing 787 Dreamliner and Airbus 350, according to a feasibility study. "Reducing direct operating costs by more than 10% will give the latest turbofan engine and the latest advances in aerodynamics and composite materials. Along with an attractive cost of ownership it will provide a sufficient competitive advantage ", - said the representative of the KLA. Representatives from Boeing and Airbus, is not commenting.
How many do you need
8200 at least such is the global demand for wide-bodied aircraft in 2023-2041 gg., The largest market is China with the need to not less than 1500 ships, estimated KLA and COMAC in the feasibility study. Boeing forecast for the next 20 years (2016-2035 gg.) - 8570 ships of this class.
Development of the liner and the establishment of production facilities will cost $ 13 billion, another $ 7 billion will be spent on spare parts supply system, marketing and sales support - subsidies and guaranteed residual value, according to a feasibility study, the cost of Russia and China will be borne equally. "The program is at the stage of conceptual design, the costs will be adjusted," - said the representative of the KLA.
Price set at $ SHFDMS 113,5-117,8 million in the first year it should be 20% cheaper than its competitors, according to a feasibility study. Dreamliner in the catalog is $ 224 million, but when buying a large consignment, it costs $ 112,3-153 million, say the representatives of the airlines. A350 will cost $ 136-154 million, according to the manufacturer's website. SHFDMS to 2045 should bring $ 123 billion in revenue and $ 9.6 billion in net profit, the price for a roomy and expensive models are not listed in the feasibility study, but based on the planned total sales revenue could reach about 1,000 vessels. "We hope to 2045 to sell up to 800 boards" - promises a representative of the KLA.
The authorized capital of the joint venture and the KLA COMAC is only $ 2 million, it will make only a conceptual design, according to the feasibility study. Detailed design will KLA structure, it also will be the certificate holder of the type in Russia, China and Europe; COMAC under the license agreement will be engaged in the assembly of the fuselage and the entire aircraft at the plant in a special economic zone in Shanghai, the wing will gather in Russia; COMAC will sell airplanes. The parties will pay their own work, it said in a feasibility study, but as the parity will be achieved in the costs has not been described. Do not know this and the interlocutors "Vedomosti": feasibility study clarifies in 2017 will have a new option.
"Cooperation with China is necessary because of its finance and access to its market. Cost of the project is such that either Russia will not be able to comply with the parity in funding, a project will be delayed or worsen parameters such as efficiency, "- says the executive director of" airport "Oleg Panteleyev.
"China's goal in the first place - get the Russian developments and technologies. China - a hard negotiator and cynically refers to someone else's intellectual property, so that the project poses to Russia some risks "- warns a leading researcher at the Institute of Transport Economics Fedor Borisov.
With the current division of work it turns out that Russia will start investing early, says the official. This may be an additional risk to Russia, indicates Panteleev.
KLA released haul the SSJ100, completes the development of medium-range MS-21, SHFDSM would make the main line vessels full, then no one producer in the world. In 2017-2018 gg. on SHFDSM under the state program "Development of the aviation industry," laid 7.4 billion rubles. - Not enough for such a project, a federal official said.
Ministry of Industry and COMAC to not answer the request.