The first bank that can move to the consolidation fund of the banking sector, created by the Central Bank for the rehabilitation of banks, can become FC Opening. This is one of the scenarios considered by the regulator of the future fate of the bank, told the "Vedomosti" four state bankers, a source close to the Central Bank, and two people who know this: one - from an employee of the Central Bank, the other - from FC Opening. Knows this and the top manager of a large financial and industrial group. Two interlocutors of "Vedomosti" call the probability of such a scenario very high, but the decision has not yet been made.
The main shareholder of FC Otkritie Vadim Belyaev denies this: there are no negotiations on transferring the bank to the Central Bank's consolidation fund, he told Vedomosti. The representative of the Central Bank does not comment on the existing banks and whether the fund is ready to begin work.
Treat in a new way
The current model of banks' sanation is ineffective, the Central Bank considered and a year ago proposed a new one - through the consolidation of the banking sector of the Central Bank (the law came into force in June). The shareholder of this fund will be the Central Bank, shares of sanitized banks will be transferred there. Having improved banks, the fund will sell them - and not necessarily with profit.
"FC Opening" two months returns clients money: ACRA assigned him a low rating (BBB-), which deprived him of the right to work with the money of state companies and pension funds. And after the collapse of Yugra, the bank became the target of an information attack, Belyaev said. In June and July, the companies took 430 billion rubles from the bank, and the citizens - 36 billion. In July, the banks withdrew from the FC Otkritie 263 billion rubles. Approximately half of the leaked 621 billion rubles. - closing of reverse repo transactions, the rest - planned outflows of funds due to the rating and unplanned withdrawals, explained the representative of the "Discovery". By August 1, liquid assets of FC Otkritie, according to Fitch estimates, covered only 20% of client funding.
The scenario with the transfer of the bank to the Central Bank's fund is logical, say two interlocutors of Vedomosti, recalling the large-scale financing of the bank by the regulator. In July, the "Discovery" borrowed from the Central Bank 333 billion rubles. On repo transactions, and by August the fifth part of the bank's liabilities was accounted for by the Central Bank. In August, the regulator opened an unsecured credit line to the bank, said two interlocutors of Vedomosti, who knew this from FC Otkritie. How much the bank has drawn on it from the Central Bank and on what terms, it is not known.
"Given the information about the recent receipt of a loan from the Central Bank by the bank, it can be assumed that by that time he had exhausted the possibilities to attract collateral financing (as of August 1, the bank had about 130 billion rubles of unsettled bonds), and, therefore, Has grown significantly compared to the already significant value as of August 1, "says Fitch analyst Alexander Danilov. It is clear that for FC Opening, the immediate task now is to compensate for outflows and stabilize funding, but then there will be the question of how to straighten out the structure of liabilities, where a significant portion of expensive funding from the Central Bank takes place in order to be able to compete in rates and earn profits, He points out.
Borrowings from the Central Bank will seriously affect the structure of interest expenses of the bank, the Expert RA methodologist Yury Belikov is in agreement. The funds of the regulator are more expensive than the client ones, especially given that free and low-profit resources (funds on current accounts) leave. In addition, the bank reduced its corporate loan portfolio by almost 40%, on the whole it generated 31-35 billion rubles. In a quarter, but already in the III quarter revenues may fall to 25-27 billion rubles., He estimates.
Most likely dramatically decrease revenues from transactions in currency and derivative financial instruments, Belikov continues: "The bank loses short free liquidity, which is usually funded by these transactions, bringing up to 10 billion rubles. In a quarter ».
On the other hand, maintaining in the liabilities of repo with the Central Bank in the amount of 338 billion rubles. (data as of August 1) will additionally cost 8.5 billion rubles to the "Discovery". in a quarter, says Belikov. "On a non-collateral line, in addition to interest on the funds (key rate + 1.75 pp per annum), a commission is paid for its opening (0.15% of the limit, even if it is not selected). Suppose, for a unsecured loan with a limit of 100 billion rubles. will have to pay 150 million rubles. At a time and almost 2.7 billion rubles. In a quarter », - he reflects. "If current trends continue, it is likely that a loss of 5-9 billion rubles will be generated. In a quarter, "says Belikov, noting that much more will depend on the dynamics of the creation of reserves.
VTB, which owns a 9.9% stake in FC Otkritie, declined to comment.