Sberbank's management will present a new development strategy to the supervisory board on November 14, according to the bank's materials. In a month, on December 14, Sberbank's top management in London will present it to investors on the traditional Strategy day. By 2020, Sberbank expects to earn 1 trillion rubles. per year - such a net profit can be incorporated in the new strategy of the state bank for 2018-2020, two people close to its supervisory board told Vedomosti and confirmed the person who knows this from another director of the Savings Bank. Sberbank declined to comment on the figure.
The previous strategy was adopted for 2014-2018. Last week, German Gref, President of Sberbank, said that the planning horizon was reduced from five years to three: "We do not guess the five-year cycle, because the cycles have greatly accelerated. We need to move on to strategic planning for decades, but plan our action plan for a three-year period "(quoted by Interfax).
Now 1 trillion rubles. a year - the expected earnings of the entire banking system in Russia in 2017 (CB forecast). And more than half accounted for Sberbank - in 2016, he earned 542 billion rubles., And in 2017, Bloomberg's consensus forecast of 660 billion rubles.
By October, Sberbank secured almost all of the industry's profits, but this is a consequence of the huge losses of the sanated Binbank and FC Opening.
If the economy continues to recover and there will be no external shocks, Sberbank will be able to significantly increase profits (reducing the cost of risk, operating costs and increasing commission fees) and yet 1 trillion rubles. in 2020 seems too optimistic, believes Fitch analyst Alexander Danilov.
Against Sberbank may increase the contribution to the deposit insurance fund (the rate increased by a quarter to 0.15%), and the margin may decline, although hardly strong, thinks Danilov: "Because of its size, Sberbank itself largely determines the level of rates on market and is unlikely to be in a hurry to reduce them to themselves at the expense of ".
Sberbank, due to the scale of business, efficiency and funding structure, can remain profitable in any phase of the credit cycle, while the rest are forced to fight for market share to the detriment of the quality of the new business, but if the banking sector moves from stagnation to growth, 90% of the total profit, it will not work, believes the head of the group of bank ratings ACRA Cyril Lukashuk.
"We believe that Sberbank's margins will shrink very slowly, as the asset life exceeds the term of liabilities by 2.5 years: the life of the loan portfolio is four years, and the funding ratio is 1.5, which in the situation of declining rates will restrain the reduction in net interest margin ", - says analyst of" VTB Capital "Mikhail Shlemov.
Even such officials do not count on such a solid profit. According to the results of 2017, the Finance Ministry expects to receive 150 billion rubles from the Central Bank. in the form of dividends on shares of Sberbank (the Central Bank has 50% plus one share of Sberbank), and the agency expects that it will send half of the profits to payments, follows from the draft budget for 2018-2020. (included in the State Duma). Based on expectations for payments of the state bank, which through the Central Bank will fall into the budget, it turns out that for 2018-2019. officials expect a net profit in these years 330 billion and 363 billion rubles. If Sberbank earns a trillion, the budget will receive 250 billion rubles.
Dividend policy of Sberbank does not specify how much it should pay shareholders, but the state bank has repeatedly stated that it is striving for dividends in 20% of net profit. At the end of 2016, he increased the deductions to 25%. Will he pay half the net profit until it is decided. This issue will be discussed with the Finance Ministry and the Economic Development Ministry, the Central Bank chairman Elvira Nabiullina said in July: "I understand the government's desire to receive more revenues from state property, but dividends from banks and from state-owned companies are completely different things." The Finance Ministry believes that Sberbank has the opportunity to pay dividends in the amount of 50% of profits, but so far the consensus on this issue with the Central Bank has not been found, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said last week.
The press service of the Central Bank did not respond to the request of Vedomosti.