Smartphones and the ruble rate

Why the shares of Yandex are falling down. 
Origin source
Shares of the company "Yandex" on the NASDAQ from 2014 show steady fall. It has surprisingly coincided with attacks on "Yandex" by the Russian authorities during the "Russian Spring".

 At the Moscow stock exchange shares of the company played a fall, but since mid-2016 once again saw a downward trend.

Chronicle shares dive

The main trading platform for shares "Yandex» - NASDAQ, where they are traded in dollars. At the Moscow Stock Exchange the shares of the company have appeared only in June 2014, when just started falling. On the fateful 2014 consolidated revenue of "Yandex" in dollar terms decreased by 10,15%, EBITDA - to 21.62%, the adjusted net profit - by 34.6%. At the same time, the ruble figures show good momentum, which seems to have provided, and the cost of restoring the company's shares on the Moscow stock exchange in rubles, observed from mid-2015 till July 2016 As of July "Yandex" won back their losses from 2014 ., but at the moment the share price again fell below the level of 2014

The reasons for this are many. In "Yandex" I believe that this decline is temporary, and due to the good results of the company on the Moscow Stock Exchange will continue soon began in the autumn of 2015 the recovery. According to the press secretary of "Yandex" Asya Melkumova, paper companies have a positive outlook on both sites: "If we translate the quotations on the NASDAQ in rubles, the shares fall and played there." Nevertheless, it recognizes that share price may put pressure and external factors, including oil prices, exchange rates and the level of consumption. "This is well illustrated by a comparative graph with the dynamics of" Yandex "in quotations, Mail.Ru Group, Qiwi, MTS and" VimpelCom ", - says Asya Melkumova.

Not all experts agree with this explanation. "Shares" Yandex "on the stock exchange like NASDAQ, and on the Moscow stock exchange show a downward trend since August of this year, - says analyst Denis Ikonnikov QBF. - This is partly due to their high cost. In the first nine months of 2016 the company showed revenue growth of 29%, to 53.8 billion rubles., But net profit fell by 18%, to 5.6 billion rubles. The fall in net profit for the third year in a row there. "

Paul Salas, Regional Director of eToro in Russia and the CIS, the least inclined to blame for the negative dynamics of the shares of "Yandex" macroeconomic factors. Its causes, he believes, is that the company loses the competition Google search engine, in spite of the FAS: "The American search engine accused of" abuse of a dominant position on the market pre-installed shopping apps in the Android operating system. " Google still has not made any changes to the system, and its search engine and installed by default on all new Android-device. Even if "Yandex" will achieve change, it is unlikely to seriously can affect its position in the market - the percentage of "Yandex" mobile application users on iOS and falls. As for the "Yandeks.Taksi", the economic situation in Russia is playing against the company in the transport market: the real-nye population falling wages, and services market is experiencing hard times. In addition, competition from Uber forces "Yandeks.Taksi" conduct numerous internet stock - this trend is unlikely in the foreseeable future will be profitable. "

It is worth remembering that the TNS research company stated in April this year that Google has overtaken "Yandex": at least once per month Google site used in all versions of 20.5 million people, while for "Yandex" this figure was 20 4 million unique users. In September RNS portal reported that the share of "Yandex" search engine in the past six months fell to 2008 indicators .: Google, according to the portal, controls 57.2% of the Russian market of search requests, while its own search engine "Yandex" has to only 41.2%, while its share continues to decline steadily. As it has been said by representatives of "Yandex" and confirmed the analysts of investment banks, a key factor in the growth of the share of Google in Russia - control over the operating system Android. From this we can conclude that Google is increasing its audience primarily by users of mobile devices.

Transnationality prevents

The problem of "Yandex" in the fact that its revenues and expenses are calculated in different currencies: the costs - mainly in euros and US dollars, revenues - mainly in rubles and other currencies of the CIS countries. The company, whose shares are traded on the American, Russian and German trading floors, is focused primarily on the foreign investor, as evidenced by the publication of reports in English only.

The main area of ​​the presence of "Yandex" a multinational company - mainly Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, Kazakhstan, to this list of recently added and Turkey. Accordingly income "Yandex" has received in Russian rubles, Ukrainian hryvnias Belarusian rubles, Kazakh Tenge and Turkish Lira. All these currencies, to put it mildly, not very stable. In fact, the company is a hostage exchange rates.

All the above-yielding currencies, "Yandex" currently fall against the euro and the US dollar. However, it slowed the fall against the euro and the Russian ruble Kazakh tenge. According to the ruble exchange rate for next year is no unanimity. The growth of the budget deficit has not been canceled yet, and therefore, more likely, we should expect a sideways trend for most of the revenue basket of currencies "Yandex", except for the Belarusian ruble and the Ukrainian hryvnia - too strong in these countries, the pressures on the currency.

In addition to currency factors, the policy of territorial expansion, "Yandex" has another negative side: at any time, the company's services can run into protectionism of local authorities. A typical example - the study of the activities of "Yandeks.Taksi" Georgian Agency of the competition. Carrier is accused of dumping in relation to the complaint of the local competitor "200 200". Most likely, "Yandeks.Taksi" falls under the Georgian legislation existing article "Abuse of dominant position". In Moscow, the taxi drivers also protested in September against the "Yandeks.Taksi" policy.

Manual "Yandex" well aware of the growing risk of profit in other countries. In the beginning, the general director of "Yandex" Arkady Volozh said the company will spend less funds for expansion in Turkey. Now the share of "Yandex" in the search engines used by the inhabitants of this country, is around 7%, which contributed to the contracts with the football club "Fenerbahce", on the players' shirts which flaunts a logo of "Yandex", and with the Firefox browser, which "Yandex" - means default search for Turkey. However, in Turkey, the most popular Internet Explorer, Chrome, or Firefox takes a tiny fraction.

It would seem, what's the policy?

The political factor is also not necessary to dismiss. In 2014, the shares of "Yandex" collapsed after the words of Vladimir Putin about Western influence in the company. In fact, it marked the beginning of a downward trend. Around the same time, there was a scandal about the statements on social networks Director of the Ukrainian representative of "Yandex" Sergei Petrenko. On fire in the House of Trade Unions in Odessa, led to the loss of human life, he said: "clean up the city from the separatists." Petrenko had to dismiss as broke serious scandal on the basis of his statements in Russia. Along the way, and users of the Internet, and some Russian politicians and officials have noticed that in the Ukrainian version of a search engine in the top are the news, where the events in Ukraine are covered with a pronounced pro-Ukrainian position.

Denis Ikonnikov not inclined to attach great importance to politics: "Certainly, the aggravation of Russia-West relations had an impact on the stock price on the Moscow Stock Exchange, as many foreign investors have begun to sell assets and withdraw money from Russia. Nevertheless, it should not be considered shares of "Yandex" apart from the rest, in this context, because of Western sanctions personal company has not received. Determining factors of the dynamics of shares of "Yandex" - the financial performance and prospects of the company. As long as the organization does not show clear signals for growth. "

However, there are much more stringent assessment of the current foreign policy situation. For example, an investment banker Yuri Goldberg looks at "Yandex" prospects in the current actual isolation of Russia from the developed economies of the world is skeptical: "Russian Joint-Stock Company" Yandex ", whose shares are traded on world markets and belong to the broadest category of investors, the economic activity takes place in the vast Russian entirety. Generalized unhooks the West and Russia, and Turkey from its business environment. mutual sanctions actions against the Russian - even current deal investors from Switzerland and Qatar are suspicious of Americans, announced an investigation. No success in business does not detract from the overall risks of the crisis in the Russian economy, and extrapolated to the high-tech, and artificial containment ambitions of "Yandex" in the areola of his presence. "

Despite the continued decline in the value of shares, the rejection of further expansion in other countries, and the problem of falling revenues in currencies, the "Yandex" remains scope for development. According to Paul Salas, the company benefits higher prices for advertising, promotional plans National Alliance (NDA), which controls about 75% of the television market, "NRA plans to raise the price of TV advertising by 15%, which will make potential advertisers to seek other means of accommodation. It is expected that many organizations will choose online advertising, which is a major player, "Yandex". At the moment the online advertising accounts for roughly 90 billion rbl., Or 38% of firms spending on promotion of the goods. " Perhaps that is why in the third quarter of 2016 many institutional investors prefer to increase the proportion of securities in their portfolios searcher. Taken together, the new influx of investments amounted to $ 302.4 million against outflows of $ 50.3 million.

A positive factor is the increase in traffic from the company "Yandeks.Taksi" working in many cities of the CIS and is scheysya-fastest growing segments, including "Yandex": an increase of 151% in the third quarter against growth of 21% in those segments, " Search and portal. " According to preliminary results of the 2016 "Yandeks.Taksi", last year's leader on the Russian markets on, overtook the company Gett coverage cities. Besides, the Georgian example, is likely to force the management of "Yandex" in the future take a cautious approach to the question of launching "Yandeks.Taksi" in other countries. Plans also cover all Russian cities with population over 300 000 people, it seems, is too ambitious. It has long been no secret that the regional taxi operators are afraid of the arrival of "Yandex", which in the Moscow market has actually become a monopolist. In St. Petersburg, local carriers have already held several protests.

Sam "Yandex" has raised its forecast for revenue growth, considering that it is on the basis of 2016 will increase by 22-24%. And for the company "Yandeks.Taksi", revenue which continues to grow, according to Denis Ikonnikova account for less than 5% of revenue, "More than 95% of the revenue the company receives from online advertising. In connection with this in the short term it is from advertising income will determine the growth of the organization. " It seems that predictions of "Yandex" leadership can be questioned, since the income from online advertising shows significantly less growth than income from "Yandeks.Taksi".

"Although at the end of October, the company released strong IFRS results for the third quarter of 2016, it did not help her papers to go beyond the existing in their downtrend. Technical prospects for growth of the securities will be opened only in case of breakdown of the level of 1250 rubles. upstairs. In this case, we can expect recovery to the level of stocks in 1400 rubles, but this will not be enough to return the price within the long-term rising trend of September 2015 ", -. Says the analyst GC" Teletrade "Anastasiya Ignatenko.

While "Yandex" makes potential investors a lot of questions. Against the background of a relatively positive financial results this year on the company pressured macroeconomic factors and, more importantly, growing by leaps and bounds the state control of Internet content. Activities Roskomnadzor so became the talk of the town that gave birth to "memes" like "finish Roscomnadzor life" or "to do something with him for some reason." In the same series it was also an attempt to legally equate "Yandeks.Novosti" to the media, which, however, failed. But in spite of its failure, the possibility of any pressure on "Yandex" from the government for political reasons is still present, and it is unlikely in the near future, this risk is reduced.

The main products of "Yandex"

Now "Yandex" develops five main business areas: search and portal services, e-commerce ( "of Yandex.Market"), service on a call taxi services announcements ( "", "Yandeks.Nedvizhimost", "Yandeks.Rabota "" Yandeks.Puteshestviya ") and experimental direction, which includes" kinopoisk "," Yandeks.Afisha "and" Yandeks.Teleprogramma "music services, reference products, Yandex Data Factory, as well as search and portal in Turkey. Most of the revenue "Yandex" (96%) is advertising in search results and on partner sites. Revenues for "search and portal" (earns from advertising) increased in the third quarter of 2016 by 21%, to 17.5 billion rubles, the segment "Electronic commerce" ( "of Yandex.Market") -. 45%, to 1 ., 2 billion rubles, "Yandeks.Taksi" - by 151%, to 587 million rubles. Services ads (. "", "Yandeks.Nedvizhimost", etc.) showed an increase of 45% to 352 million rubles, the experimental direction ( "kinopoisk", "Yandeks.Muzyka" and others.) -. 98% , up to 210 million rubles.