The Russian political history in 2014 and striking a surprise event scale. Leaving routinized world rankings, economic motivations, standards of cooperation - all this boring surroundings of today's global hierarchy - Russia, led by the Kremlin, he weighed anchor and came out into the open waters of history. Philosopher Mikhail Yampolsky wrote about it: "From the world of postmodern Russia moved into the modern", ie in the first half of the twentieth century...
After Russia joined Crimea, in the south-eastern Ukraine, broke out a short and severe crisis between 26 February and 16 March. Crimea transition under Russia shook the public mood of the population in the five regions of Ukraine. In those days, in the Crimea is continuously visited by representatives of the different groups from the Ukraine, there was an atmosphere of excitement, there was "Russian Spring", said Igor Girkin later. Fueled by Russia of various political groups, this atmosphere and led to a military expedition Girkin unit in Slavyansk, which began with the "Donbass war." Turns her story were the main events of THE RUSSIANth internal policies in 2014. As a result, in 2015 the first Russian met with results that would not have dreamed the Kremlin in a nightmare two years earlier. Russia left the G8, in relations with Germany in deep crisis, the US and EU sanctions, the gap of many high-tech areas of cooperation between Russian and European companies.
Russia is losing the place eighth economy in the world, in 2015 it offers "junk rating" of attractive investment emerging market, what Russia has been more than a decade, we become extremely vulnerable economy. Falling oil prices and Russian ruble drops to almost $ 1,000 of the average salary in June 2014 (salary - 33 563 rubles, the rate -. 34.41 $ 1) to $ 600 and below, a few years ago.
Putin's turn - 2014 attracted enormous attention to the Russian world. Now all Russian - reserves, the nature of penetration into the economy of European countries, foreign policy activity - fell from the half-light area directly under spotlights erupted. Now, all according to Russian reserves and plotting their melting. Each transaction comes under the microscope. The United States followed by chickeny, Obama declared: "Everything has a price, and it must be paid." But how much to pay? Price Crimea is unknown, because the Kremlin does not enter into negotiations. As a result of carried out policy of "degreasing" of the Kremlin, which will result in burning reserves to zero. Reserves run out earlier than the time to diversify the Russian economy. There is a no-win situation: the population must bear the burdens of the crisis and the recession, with only "pending catastrophe" in the long term.
For political historian would be extremely interesting to see how the decision was made in the Crimea. Most likely - based on the disintegration of Ukraine and strategic perspective the emergence of a large new state New Russia. Only in this case, the decision to annex Crimea would dissolve in a larger process of redrawing borders. But this adventurist plan failed. And now the Kremlin in a difficult position. It can be seen that it strains all diplomatic options, foreign propaganda, pro-Russian business circles in Europe, to create a tangible movement for recognitione Crimea.
For that the Kremlin is prepared to pay. There are numerous statements by European politicians and entrepreneurs, calling for understanding the actions of Russia as a manifestation of a reasonable anxiety, fear, or even the result of misguided policies of the West in the post-Soviet period. But these statements putins-versteers Putin managed to capitalize only if it further in February and did not join the Crimea, and just to destabilize the situation in Ukraine, without violating the borders.
It is obvious that after the death of "Boeing" Putin was able to exchange a complete cessation of hostilities in the Donbass in the scheme, which is the voice of the former US Ambassador to Russia John Matlock and a number of European politicians:. West agrees to restore dosanktsionnogo mode of economic cooperation, not recognizing the de -fakto annexation of Crimea, and considering it as a "frozen conflict". But Putin did not use it.
As a result of the transition in 2015 in an atmosphere of complete deadlock, the lack of any strategies for settlement and growth of confrontational rhetoric. Now Putin's rhetoric about the sameatelnom revising the European security concept does not matter. On the contrary, a common place today in Europe expert assessments: Crimean Kremlin gamble even deprive Russia of the regional power status, which was previously recognized as a result of a decade of Putin's effort and its political environment. What to say about the Kremlin's claims to speak revisionist leader, offering new schemes of European or global political architecture.
The new contract
But foreign policy, and economic losses - is half the battle, and not the most important. The main event of the year - "samoobnaruzhenie" Russian society, driven Crimean adventure in the narrow corridor of the "new loyalty." Kremlin renegotiated social contract. Ukrainization domestic policy made a quick reconfiguration of the entire social space. Tens of millions of officials, employees of state corporations, entrepreneurs, whose business is connected with the state budget, previously had different views on the future of Russia, is now tied Crimea. The same situation with the humanitarian community:historians, journalists, teachers of higher and secondary schools. Not less than 20,000 federal journalists included in the orbit of the Kremlin's war service with the rest of the world. The education system should take in not only the justification of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, but also the entire global mythologized picture Russian battle with the West in general.
The consequences of "Ukraine" came in every Russian family. Those who doubt the correctness of the Kremlin's policy, forced silence, avoiding conflict with their own parents or children. The symbolic figure of a new social contract are the notorious 87% - latching sociologists support for Putin and his course.
What is the content of a new contract between the Kremlin and the public? It has three points.
1) Go to Putin when Putin's life "not Putin" is no longer possible ( "No to Putin - is not Russia").
2) Isolationism - a course that will be maintained until the end of Putin's life ( "Russia is surrounded by enemies").
3) The country does not reform itself.
The last point - the result of 25 years of post-Soviet transit: easy optionoff. It is obvious that the social contract postkrymsky final transfer of the weak Russian democracy status personalistic regime and thus reformats the future. Now we are a country, to put their future is completely dependent on the care or the leader's death. Social networks can be seen that thousands of people are well aware that the contract contains a pending disaster. Now return to samoreformiruemosti way out of isolation is only possible as a result of large-scale civil conflict, military defeat or a profound economic collapse. Ukrainization of Russian politics devoured the future of Russia.
The road to disaster
It is hoped to maintain the truce in the Donbas, but understand that it will not change the state of Russian society. "West" in the new political rhetoric is designed so that on his part there can be no rational answer, involving the restoration of dialogue. The West must go somewhere, disappear. Before that, he must repent for centuries of anti-Russian policy, starting with the death of VisanTII and until the organization of the coup in Kiev. Smaller Kremlin and our new postkrymskoe society are not ready to accept. Inside, a new social contract and no space to end the conflict with Kiev. Ukraine should also go somewhere together with the West. Inside of this contract, as it clearly shows Putin's rhetoric is the second half of the year, there is no rational proposals from the Kremlin for an available-West.
Proposals have only imaginary West. A new social contract involves a dense shell of mythology, which should produce (and consume itself) Russian society. Obviously covered by this mythology does not allow any reverse. The fact of enrollment - evidence that the fuse is blown. Mechanisms of self-reflection denied. Postkrymsky social contract does not imply the end - unlike Putin's first term of the contract and the contract years 2003-2011. Now I do not know where and under what circumstances will be formed anew mechanisms of self-reflection, protecting society from degradation. etthe worst result of 2014