In the long term, oil production in Russia will increase by a third - to 700 million tons per year. The country will become the world leader in the production of "black gold" - no country in the world has not yet been siphoned off as much fuel.
With such a rosy outlook, the President of "Rosneft" Igor Sechin. Modesty not hold him - he made it clear that the quotes did not have any significance, and can work under any conditions in the commodities market. "Co" figured out what is behind the optimism Sechin and whether there are any buyers on the excess oil.
We need more oil
Over the past year the global energy market has changed. The dramatic collapse of quotations of basic grades of oil (Brent has fallen in price by 54% of WTI - by 57%, the OPEC basket - 56%) led to a crisis in producing countries. They are trapped: increase the production of "black gold" in the conditions of weak demand can not - nobody will buy; too stupid to stop the tower - in this case, there is a risk of losing market share and lose money last.
With particularly strange looking, taking into account this factor,latest news. Russia not only is not going to reduce the production of hydrocarbons, just opposite - Pumping of oil and gas in the future will only grow.
September 4, during the Eastern Economic Forum's Energy Minister Alexander Novak said that in 20 years - by 2035 - oil production in Eastern Siberia and the Far East will increase by 2 times, up to 118 million tons (883 million barrels), gas - 3 times, up to 135 billion cubic meters. M. Of Russia finished in 2014 with the figure of 526.8 million tons (3.94 billion barrels of + 0.7% compared to 2013) and 640.2 billion cubic meters. m (-4.2%), respectively. According to the official, Russian energy resources will grow just by the eastern regions of the country: in 2020, the share of "black gold", produced here, it will be 19% of the total. After 2025 - 22-23%. Now it is 11%.
After 5 days, Novak announced another important figure. In 2015, Russia may raise oil production by 1%. At first glance, this figure - the statistical error. If the Ministry of Energy forecast comes true, this year our country will produce 532.1 million tons of fuel (3.98 billion barrels). Nevertheless designated curious trend. On the surface of extractssmiling more "black gold". Even during the economic crisis, falling costs of raw materials and sluggish demand. Again, in 2014, the dynamics was weaker (+ 0.7%).
The head of "Rosneft" Igor Sechin went further. September 7 at the conference FT Commodities in Singapore, he presented his own, very bold prediction. Sechin said that in the future Russian oil production may reach 700 million tons (5.24 billion barrels). The increase of 33%. To date, an amount of "black gold" does not produce one on the planet (Saudi Arabia - 543 400 000 t, USA - 519.9 million tons, Canada - 209.8 million tons, according to BP data for 2014). Do not forget the president of "Rosneft" and walk on alternative energy sources. He noted progress in their development, but expressed confidence that oil will be a very long time to correct ball.
Thus, a few days in September the state energy strategy has been formulated. Russia is not going to cut production. One gets the impression that the oil companies do not care about the situation on the market, they do not regard the fall in prices. Perhaps they hayut a secret. Something that will make quotes rushed up. But is it really?
It is about to lift sanctions against Iran. As a result, Russia will have a new competitor in the face of the state National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC). Its oil reserves are estimated at 156.5 billion barrels. In 2014, the company mined 3.6 million barrels per day. According to this indicator Iran ahead of Venezuela (2.7 million barrels per day), Kuwait (3.1 million) and Iraq (3.3 million). By comparison, production in Russia amounted to 10.8 million barrels a day. A company NIOC Mohsen Kamsari back in mid-July, has promised that the corporation is to maximize oil production. Its plans include clearly dumping. repeatedly told Iran that will sell for any money hydrocarbons. Out of the Islamic Republic to the stage - direct and obvious threat to all producing countries, including the Russian Federation. In addition to the Tehran factor you need to consider a few more.
The most important among them - the slowdown of the Chinese economy (China - a key consumer of energy in the world, the downturn in China leads to a drop in demand for oil). Let's not forget about the growing commercial reserves of "blackof gold "in the US. According to the United States Department of Energy, to September 4, their volume increased by 0.6%, to 458 million barrels.
That is why the word Sechin and Novak seem, to put it mildly, strange. Moreover, the publication by production capacity forecasts (even in the distant future) alone can cause markets to move and cause a decrease in quotations. "The promises of Russian leaders to increase oil production to stimulate falling prices and have a destructive effect on the revenue of the Russian budget," - said in an interview with "Co" consulting partner Michael RusEnergy Krutikhin.
Eastern Siberia and the Far East - frontier for Russian energy companies. In terms of hydrocarbon production is wild and undeveloped areas with enormous potential. Now oil and gas are produced mainly in the western part of the country. So, in the Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Okrug is located in Russia's largest oil field - Samotlor. It works "daughter" of "Rosneft" - OJSC "Samotlorneftegh. " Production is carried out for 50 years. In 2014, here was pumped 21.8 million tons of "black gold" (163.1 million barrels). According to the corporation, with the area can be extracted 1 billion tons of oil (7.5 billion barrels). In Western Siberia, is also Urengoy gas pool. Its reserves are estimated at 10 trillion cubic meters. m, it is 5% of the world reserves, and a third - Russian. Here reigns "Gazprom mining Urengoy". By 2013, the company was able to produce 6.5 trillion cubic meters. "Blue fuel". The company said that "such a huge amount of gas from one field" does not produce anybody in the world. In the year of "daughter" of "Gazprom" produces about 100 billion cubic meters (22% of the total production monopoly).
However, there is a problem. Western Siberia is rich in resources and be able to provide Russia for many years. But to get them to the surface becomes more difficult with each passing year. In the "Rosneft", for example, recognize that remaining 1 billion tons of "black gold" in the Samotlor - a hard-to-reserves. Further development requires large investments and modern technologies. And that means one thing - the cost of growth etc.custom. In addition, at the current price of oil should not expect major investments. And US sanctions have led to the technological blockade Igor Sechin. "Approval of the increase in production at times in these regions (Eastern Siberia and the Far East -. Note" Co ".) Controversial. To do this, we need to increase exploration and production drilling, need modern technology. Given imposed against Russian companies of the sanctions, it is quite difficult. In addition, companies in the current conditions are not planning large-scale investments ", - says principal analyst at Promsvyazbank Ekaterina Krylova.
However, the head of "Rosneft" is not too worried. September 3 at Beijing, he said that corporations do not care how much it costs, "black gold". "We proceed from the fact that the cost of production of the company" Rosneft "is the best in the world, therefore, are ready for any reversals in the oil market," - said Sechin (by Tass quoted).
According to the director of the analytical department of the IR «Golden Hills-Capital AM» Mikhail Krylov, the cost of oil production in Russia - indeed one of thethe world's lowest. Better only Saudi Arabia (about $ 4 a barrel) and Iran ($ 5). "But due to additional costs for depreciation of equipment and restoration of the mineral resource base, commercial transportation costs, it rises to $ 15-17 per barrel. The administrative component raises this figure to $ 25. " "In the" Rosneft "indicate lower costs of extraction (lifting costs) to individual projects such as Vankor. But the production cost not limited to these operating costs. On average, the Russian production of a barrel costs about $ 37, "- said, in turn, Mikhail Krutikhin. IFC Markets brokerage company analyst Dmitry Lukashov adds that "Rosneft" is essential value of oil transportation to the seaports and China. "It's 4700 and 2,700 km. In view of this factor in the production of the majority of deposits lost practical sense when oil prices below $ 30 per barrel ", - he explains.
Anyway, cheaper oil, mining companies are losing money. Therefore, turning to the East looks like a logical step. There is undevelopeddeposits with an attractive production costs.
The gas reserves in Eastern Siberia and the Far East amount to 52.4 trillion cubic meters. meters (14.9 trillion offshore). Enterprises of "Gazprom" in these regions until the own sites of 5 trillion cubic meters. M. The largest eastern fields are Chayandinskoye (reserves - 1.2 trillion cubic meters, is planned to produce 25 billion cubic meters per year) and the Kovykta gas (1.5 trillion / $ 35 billion, respectively). Another important project - "Sakhalin-2". It largely depends on the position of Russia on the global market for liquefied natural gas. For the oil industry in the East, too, a lot of work. But as long as the active mining in the region has not begun. The case limited to a few areas. So, in the Irkutsk region is located verkhnechonsk field. It is engaged in the development of "Verkhnechonskneftegaz" (99.94% owned by "Rosneft"). The proven reserves of 1.3 billion barrels. As of 2013, the company produced 57.7 million barrels. There is also the Vankor field. In its interior is 500 million tons of oil (3.7 billion barrels). "Vankorneft" (also "daughter" of "Rosneft";) In 2013 removed the 153.1 million barrels of "black gold".
According to Mikhail Krutikhin out of RusEnergy, in Eastern Siberia oil production growth may provide "Rosneft", "Gazprom Neft", Irkutsk Oil Company and "Surgutneftegaz", the Far East - the project "Sakhalin-1" under the leadership of ExxonMobil. "In the gas situation is not easy. In addition to "Gazprom" on the land a solid increase in production can provide "Rosneft". Gas has almost all the players, but the monopoly "Gazprom" hinders effective use of these reserves ", - says Mikhail Krutikhin.
East Development fits in Russia reorientation toward China. The same "Power of Siberia" is tuned for use Chayandinskoye field. But then again - for the rapid development of wild East Russia needs a favorable situation on the world market. Companies will invest in exploration, drilling and extraction only if they have a strong belief in obtaining superprofits. Bet on China is not the most successful. For the first time since 1998, failed to reach the Celestial suppliedennoy problem. The Government expects GDP growth of 7.5%. At the end of 2014 it amounted to 7.3% (the final results were announced the statistics agency of the country in September 2015). It seemed that nothing can stop China. But he stumbled and came face to face with growing pains.
In any case, Moscow has no influence over the price of "black gold". There is only hope and phantoms. Periodically, they come up and make the authorities and directors of energy companies to do a good face on a bad game.
The main misconception is that a conglomerate of oil-producing countries can seriously affect the quotes. But the ball went to the other side - in the near future, the market took over consumers. "Black gold" is tied to the cost of the balance of supply and demand. The key problem today - the sale has produced volumes.
Change the status quo does not work even in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). Yes, the secretary general of the cartel Abdalla Salem El-Badri in January admitted that the fuel can grow by up to $ 200 per barrel. But heHe stressed that this will happen in the distant future, and only in that case if there is a deficit. Today, the lack of oil production can cause frost. The cartel has to fulfill its primary function - to commit conspiracy, reduce production and thereby spur prices. This is not happening. Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi has repeatedly stressed that the kingdom will not slow down vykachku oil, even if the price drops below $ 20. Thus, the main member of the OPEC cartel signed the disability. Another fact in favor of the insolvency of the organization - consistently broken production quota. OPEC has set a threshold of 30 million barrels per day. In August, participating countries associations produced 31.7 million barrels a day in July -. 31.5 million OPEC is unable to cope with the market. Russia is in the same position. Even the association with the cartel is unlikely to save the domestic oil and gas industry.
It appears that OPEC is in despair. This is evidenced by the persistent signals sent by the organization. August 31 on the site of the cartel, it was reported, even more appeal. itOVOR that falling oil prices has a socio-economic development of many countries. To solve this problem, OPEC offered to establish an interstate dialogue in order to stabilize the market. This verbal intervention has played a role - the cost of "black gold" shot up to $ 52.67 per barrel (the daily low was $ 48.29). The market took a call for cooperation positively. It is a pity that the cartel did not say that, and how he was going to do. All it limited to a show of friendliness. And the prices have gone down again.
Later, on September 3, the President of Venezuela (also OPEC member) Nicolas Maduro proposed to his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin to stabilize the oil market. He has "good ideas on this subject," said the president of the Bolivarian Republic. Again, no specifics. Understand Nicolas Maduro simple. His country was hit by the collapse in oil prices the most. 97% of the revenue side of the budget provided by the sale of Venezuelan hydrocarbons. In 2013, she received from the oil trade $ 114 billion, in 2014 -. Has $ 77 billion All anything, but the local agricultural industry is unable toResearch Institute to provide the population with food. Food must be purchased for petrodollars in other countries. Since the foreign currency flow dries up, and reduced opportunities for full import. Bottom line - the food deficit kilometer queue in shops and the flourishing black market. In fact, Maduro has invited Putin to OPEC.
While the Russian Federation has observer status at the organization. September 7 Igor Sechin said that the cartel offered to Moscow to become a full member. Russia has refused. President of "Rosneft" stated that it was for several reasons. Firstly, the different oil production technology. Second, the major players in the OPEC countries are state-owned. We, at Sechin said that the market "is almost completely privatized."
We got three signals from OPEC: a manifesto for global cooperation, a proposal from Maduro and an invitation to the cartel, which said Sechin. They show one thing - OPEC and the oil producing countries have exhausted all possibilities to influence the market. To change needed a new union. The trouble is that its a hypotheticals participants are unlikely to step on your throat and cut back on production (in fact seen as the organization adheres to their own quota).
Whether to enter Russia in OPEC or not, she is left alone with the terms of its consumers. If they will need oil and gas, our economy will flourish. If not, we will begin to approach Venezuela. In all this history with the cartel important one conclusion: the Russian Federation will be able to increase production to 700 million tonnes per year (the figure predicted by Sechin) only if increased demand and need economic prosperity in Europe and China for it.
"Russia should be followed and the market, not a trendsetter in the level of prices for hydrocarbons," - emphasizes Mikhail Krutikhin. We have no influence over the world oil prices, there is no them and OPEC, the director of exploration and production Vygon Consulting Sergei coil. Shale revolution and the differences in the cartel on the distribution of production quotas have led to what today are the supplier of balancing the United States, he said. "Russia has no leverage on prices - production decline in Russia inadvisable: in neO, it is difficult, if not impossible, due to climatic conditions (some of the well in the winter can freeze if they preserve), and secondly, is not profitable, because the market will take competitors and rising prices still will not happen ", - says the analyst of investment it "Veles capital" Basil Tanurcov.
Spellcasters "black gold"
In such circumstances, any forecast for production in Russia seems to be misleading. More or less realistic is the prediction Alexander Novak. Still, growth of 1% - is, in fact, the stagnation that is justified at a low cost of hydrocarbons. September 15 Deputy Energy Minister Kirill Molodtsov also made the assessment, which is close to the current realities. According to him, in the next 20 years, the production of "black gold" in Russia will remain at 525 million tons (3.93 billion barrels) per year.
Well, 700 million tons, of which he said Igor Sechin, is impossible. Not the fact that he believes in them. Most likely, the head of "Rosneft" simply sends a specific signal to the market: Russia will fight for their share of the market, would be to extract the maximum possibleThe number of oil. And it is not so important as it is, the main thing - to sell.
But even if Sechin really dreams of world domination in the oil industry, to name a forecast of 700 million tons per year in any way realistic it is extremely difficult in the light of his past predictions. A year ago, he said that the cost of a barrel of oil has fallen below $ 90 (then gave him more than $ 95). "This is due to a number of factors," - says the president of "Rosneft" its opinion, without going into details. "The price of oil will continue to grow" - sure he said in June this year, when a barrel was worth more than $ 60. And in July, prices began to creep down. And back in 2009, Igor Sechin gladly agree with the prophecy oil minister of Saudi Arabia, which said that the price of oil barrels in a couple of years will be $ 150.
But not only unfulfilled predictions suggest that the head of "Rosneft" is mistaken. Expert estimates suggest that production will stagnate or decline.
September 11, the International Energy Agency (IEA) published its latest report. It talebut that countries outside of OPEC, in 2016 will reduce output by 500,000 barrels per day. This will be the maximum decline in production for a quarter century. It will result in the collapse of the low price of oil and, consequently, the preservation of many fields (in particular, in the Eagle Ford in Texas, and the Russian Federation referred to, but not specific sites).
"In the oil market canopy offers preserved, and this year it has reached its maximum level in 19 years" - says Ekaterina Krylova. According to her, the sources of excess supply - the OPEC countries and the United States. The first fight for market share, the latter reaping the benefits of shale gas revolution. "The imbalance will continue until the end of 2015. In 2016 the main risk is access to the Iranian market, which led to the preservation of oversupply," - she concludes.
"Almost all the consumer countries filled their storage to the maximum. Therefore, even a small excess of raw material leads to the powerful, the fall in prices, "- commented Dmitry Lukashov of IFC Markets. So, in July, Saudi Arabia increased its production by 350,000 barrels a day, Russia increased its exports by 7.1%, or approximately 300,000 BurrellFirst, he continues. And, despite the fact that China Import boosted (to 200,000 barrels per day), the excess of 400,000 barrels size arose in the world. "This" extra "volume was enough to reduce the Brent quotations from $ 58 to $ 43," - says the analyst.
Russian economic policy in general and its energy component in particular linked to the outside world. Welfare oil and gas companies, and most of the population depends on what decisions will be made in Washington, Brussels and Beijing. Right-to-consumer countries to the crisis - well, in our budget a broad stream will flow dollars. Not the right - well, have to tighten their belts. It is surprising that an industry that does not such a great contribution to Russia's GDP (about 20%), plays such a huge role. Even with expensive oil economy grew not very rapidly. In 2004, Brent was worth just over $ 38, Russia's GDP gained more than 7%. In 2008, it gave $ 100, the economy grew by 5.2% per barrel of North Sea brand. Indicators 2013 - $ 108.8 and 1.3%, 2014 - $ 98.9 and 0.6%, respectively. However, the vagaries of commodity markets to drive Russia into a stupor,deprived of its room for maneuver. And in the coming years, it is unlikely that it will change radically - to buy energy for a lot of money no one will.