The Central Bank accused the Russians of the inability to assess inflation

Russia continues to widen the gap between official inflation recorded by Rosstat and the rate of price growth, which is observed by citizens of the country.
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In October, according to Rosstat, inflation set a new post-Soviet minimum of 2.7%. Over the year, consumer price growth slowed by 2.2 times, and from the middle of summer - by 0.6 percentage points. And although the record low values ​​of state statistics recorded 6 months in a row, the consumers themselves did not notice this.

A survey conducted by the Central Bank showed that if in the first half of the year people saw small signs of a slowing of inflation (its observed level fell from 14% to 11.9%), then in the second half of the year this process almost stopped.

Over the summer, the indicator fell by only 0.6 percentage points, and in August, September and October, the Russians estimated inflation at almost the same level - 11.2-11.3%.

As a result, the gap between the figure from Rosstat and the indicator that was obtained from population surveys reached a record: the observed inflation is 4.5 times higher than the official one.

"Such dynamics can not be called accidental," the analysts of Raiffeisenbank note in a review: almost all key components of the CB survey deteriorated.

Inflationary expectations of the population increased for the second consecutive month - up to 9.6% on the horizon a year. The consumer sentiment index fell for the first time in six months, both in the assessment of the current situation and in anticipation of the future.

The proportion of those who said that family spending continues to grow, increased from 14% to 17%; the share of those who did not manage to postpone anything for the last month rose from 66% in August to 73% in September and 72% in October. Values ​​above the Central Bank fixed last time only in January 2016, when the dollar rate exceeded 80 rubles against the background of a collapse in oil prices.

The population refuses to see a victory over inflation simply because people "can not" believe it yet, "the Central Bank says.

"It's difficult for a common person to understand how inflation in general is changing," says Zoya Kuzmina, head of the expert group of the Department of Monetary Policy of the Bank of Russia, explaining the position of the central bank: thus, sugar prices, according to statistics, fell by 20% over the year, and people in the survey said they see their growth.

"This result confirms that we all need a little more time to get used to low inflation," Kuzmin concludes.

In fact, this addiction can never take place; inflation from Rosstat is a divorce from life, says Anna Bodrova, Senior Analyst of Alpari: the state statistics service traditionally monitors a narrow group of goods that is practically not taken into account by the consumer on store shelves - it is a large packaging of products without a brand, and not those packaged goods that appear on the shelves of stores.

"The official inflation index, provided by Rosstat, is not so much a statistical as an economic and political indicator," experts of Romir explained.

On how much inflation Rosstat calculates, for example, the amount of indexation of pensions and social benefits depends. Each percentage point of the officially recognized price increase requires an increase in budget spending by 70 billion rubles a year, said earlier the head of the Ministry of Finance Anton Siluanov.