The federalization of Donbass: euthanasia under the guise of autonomy

After twenty-three years of independence, in some regions of Ukraine there are people willing to try to gain autonomy or become part of Russia. UNIAN estimated the possible risks and benefits for the separatists.
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Potential "renegades" hold rallies and organize provocations, in particular, in the Donetsk and Lugansk regions. Some local regional councils pedaliruyut subject of a national referendum on the issue of federalization of the country. And some of them even threatened that, in case of failure to do so, "reserve the right to seek assistance from the brotherly Russian people."

At the same time, in Donetsk on federalization term prefer to speak in the future tense, but the hot heads of the deputies of the Regional Council of Lugansk, seem willing to be separated from the Ukraine (or find some kind of "full" autonomy) right now.

UNIAN analyzed the possible prospects for these regions, if they do achieve the desired and, one way or another, come from Ukraine.

Transnistria's Experience

Agitators for separatism in the Lugansk and Donetsk regions in the matter of accession to the Russian Federation can rely on the experience of Transnistria. Recall "got hold" at the time of PMR, Russia, in pursuit, gained control over most of the industries of the former MSSR for Moldova industry is just placed on the territory which, with the support of Russian soldiers occupied the separatists. It - Moldova Steel Works, Moldavian GRES, textile mill "Tirotex" cognac factory "Kvint" and so on. In return for splitting the country Tiraspol received gratuitous gas for these plants - but not in the sense of gratuitous gift - just the gas consumed by Transnistria, Russia as it sells Moldova: for Russia on the matter and has not recognized the independence and statehood of Transnistria. Thus, all the Transdniestrian gas debts, which currently amount to 10 billion dollars, Moscow "hangs" on Chisinau.

To further enhance the attractiveness of friendship with Russia, Moscow annually injects considerable sums in Transnistria, which run at an economically unjustified increase of pensions, salaries and sotsposoby. Help tens of millions of dollars.

Increase pensions and salaries are attractive, but, in reality, such an artificial support only exacerbates the problem lays in time region: They continue to increase the flow of emigration, a negative trade balance, inflation. In this regard, international affairs experts believe that Transnistria is on the verge of economic disaster. Moreover, in view of the growing gas debt, which will sooner or later have to repay (and Moldova to pay for separatist neighbors is not going).

The country's budget, which vengeance is trying to become a subject of the Russian Federation, has never been balanced. Transnistria is spending more than it earns. A Russian business, including full use of PMR as the offshore zone. This fact is widely known, but no one wants to change anything - the region's power does not feel bad in these conditions, and on-salary pension is enough hard workers. But everybody understands that artificial prosperity could collapse at any moment.

For example, Putin will change his mind to revive the USSR, or his plans strongly interfere. What then will do Transnistria, which for many years does not develop and is only a buffer zone? Most likely, according to experts, will begin to ask in Moldein that in the near future will begin to integrate into the EU markets and, in the future, safely crossed the border of the eurozone, which could contribute to Romania. By the way, punctually and various experts said that, taking into account the 20 years of tension between Moldova and Prednistrovem, politicians of the unrecognized country is safer, if anything, to ask the Kyiv accession to the Ukraine.

Misty prospects of the future are well aware of the separatist and current Transdniestrian politicians who, while not willing to part with the Russian "handouts". This explains the local parliament's recent decision to allow the use of Transnistria laws of the Russian Federation. Such methods in Tiraspol "work through" the Russian aid. And even if the DMR leadership did not agree with the decision by the Kremlin, it fits perfectly into the policy of the Russian Federation - to prevent Moldova to ratify and sign the Association Agreement with the EU. After all, even the very Pridnestrovie considers itself an independent country, in fact, even Russia does not recognize its independence. In fact, in terms ofRUSSIA, Transnistria - is like a part of Moldova, but with other laws which may be contrary to international norms and European standards. And to change their attitude towards Tiraspol Moscow does not intend to.

Judge for yourself: 98% Pridnestrovians expressed in a referendum to join the Russian Federation in 2006, but the Kremlin is still not in a hurry even to recognize the independence of Transnistria, and recognizes only the "special status" of Transnistria.

East feeds Ukraine?

Returning to the subject of possible autonomy or accession to the Russian Federation of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions, it is worth noting that, to date, these regions are not so attractive to Russia, as in his time, was attractive Transnistria (where the industry is working on the gas for which hypothetically have to pay someone else, and the geographical location of the TMR more strategically interesting than that of the Russian Federation bordering on the South-East of Ukraine).

The fact that the two areas where some regional politicians shouting that the local residents will be better in terms of autonomy, in fact, quite unprofitable. Only for the first polugodie 2013 (the second half of the numbers are not yet available) Donetsk region donated 3.85 billion USD in the budget of Ukraine and received - UAH 13.09 billion. That is, the net loss of the Donetsk region for the first 6 months of last year - 9.24 billion UAH!

Not better things in the Luhansk region, where the first half of 2013, the state budget was sent to 4.35 billion USD., Requesting a total of assistance to 9.42 billion USD. That is, Luhansk loss ratio was at 5.07 billion.

If you do not consider the general "regional pot", and take only the industry, which is famous for the Donbas, the Donetsk enterprises, the results of the entire 2013 showed 4.215 billion USD loss. Unprofitable companies in the Donetsk region - 46%. That is, almost half of all enterprises - do not earn. A similar situation with Lunganskimi "industrial giants" - UAH 6.479 billion total loss in the previous year.

For example, coal mining, despite the myths about "feeding the country", in fact, does not bring profits to the state. On the contrary, to support the miners, Ukraine spends annually about 12-14 billion tveins, earned in other regions of the country. Mostly, it happens through the mechanism of compensation for the difference between the price of coal sales (for which it makes sense to buy businesses) and its cost (due to the development of the upper coal seams over the years production of "black gold", Ukrainian coal, refined in many mines in the vast depth is ultimately much more expensive than Polish or, for example, Kazakh).

In this regard, it is not surprising that both areas - large debtors to pay wages. Thus, in the Donetsk region in 2013 people in the region received less than USD 96.7 million, in the Luhansk - 38.3 million USD ..

In order to somehow repay these and other debts, both regions remain "petitioners" from the state budget. In 2014, the Donetsk region will receive from the treasury 5.494 billion USD subsidies, Lugansk - 2.528 billion UAH of subsidies. Approximately 30% of these amounts - go to the coal subsidies.

It is interesting that all these circumstances are well aware of the local business elite and representatives of the executive power: that is why, for example, ex-governor of the Donetsk region and nyneshs the head of the Donetsk regional council is trying to cool Shishatskiy "federalizatorov" hotheads and calls to maintain undivided Ukraine; Yes and no major businessman in the East never said a word in support of federalization or separatism.

After all, in the case of a hypothetical separation, or getting some broad autonomy, ask for help Donbas is not one. In any event, rely on the direct infusion of the budget of Ukraine (collected elsewhere) the right, in principle, will not, and help "brotherly" Russia, as we know, has the form of loans rather big percentage of that, sooner or later, will have to give . In the case of the entry of the Russian Donbass have to stand in the queue of the subsidized regions of Russia itself, where unprofitable locations and depressive enough too.

In principle, the future residents of subjects of federation, can fend off that coal is not a single famous Donbass. And some of the city where there are companies - industrial giants, could benefit from the arrival of investors. But, firstly, only a small part of the population works in Donba successful enterprises of the regionca (profitable factories and mines and so profitable that there are optimized production processes, and the working staff "pressed down" to a minimum), and what to do with thousands of people who remain without work when an investor closes unprofitable areas of certain businesses? And, secondly, as practice shows, even the direct purchase of working Ukrainian enterprises by Russian investors are not a panacea for the first. An illustrative example - idle Lisichansk refinery in the Luhansk region, owned by Russians.

Once the second largest power company in Ukraine capable of processing 16 million tons of oil per year, after a decade of management of the two Russian oil giants, is idle for two years. Recall, the first private owner of the plant in 2001 began rossiyko-British company TNK-BP. As the UNIAN Director of the Consulting Group "A-95" Sergey Kuiun, TNK-BP, by and large, the plant simply exploited, squeezing out of him the safety margin, which was built during the Soviet era. "Especially one, nothing there moerniziroval ... For its time, this plant has been advanced, and the company did not consider it necessary to develop it, "- he said.

According Kuyun, because Lisichansk refinery was one of the "youngest" of plants in the vast Soviet Union, it allowed him to remain competitive until 2005. "As soon as the time demands have changed, competition from foreign suppliers has increased, and this has led to the gradual loss of plant products. As a result, he was stopped ", - the expert said.

Actually, the Lisichansk Refinery was stopped by March 2012. And hope for its resurrection has filed the largest in the history of the oil business transaction, which took place in 2013. State Russian oil giant "Rosneft" in March last year bought 100% of TNK-BP for $ 50 billion. This acquisition has allowed "Rosneft" to become the world's largest company in terms of production and reserves of hydrocarbons.

Despite this, at the Lisichansk refinery miracle did not happen, the plant has not started. "First start Lisichansk promised Ukrainian officials WEDO profileCTBA Yuriy Boyko and Edward Stavitskiy. Itself "Rosneft" kept silent until the autumn of last year. In the fall, they said they plan to launch in late spring, but already in 2014 there was a correction and now it comes to the launch of the summer ", - said Sergey Kuiun.

In fairness, we note that "Rosneft" produced in the factory of the rehabilitation works and led the preparations for its launch. But whether this will happen in the summer? "Will it be launched? This is a question. I think that due to the recent developments, the chances of this decline. Especially given the political situation as a whole, as well as realizing that recycling economy in Lisichansk will not be very good. At best, it can be a break-even "- said the expert.

However, according to Kuyun, over the years, the plant completely behind the modern requirements, and even with the return to work, it will be hard enough to compete with players from the Eastern European market of petroleum products. "At this stage, without modernization, the plant will be difficult to compete with Belarusian products, as well as with the production of the Kremenchug refinery, kotoing has a better economy, as more technological ... And the quality of petroleum products Kremenchug refinery also bypasses Lisichanskiy in a number of positions. With this in mind, to "Rosneft" processing at the plant would not be very interesting, "- said the expert.

In addition, to bring the Lisichansk Refinery to modern requirements, according to experts consulting group "A-95", "Rosneft" now it is necessary to invest in the plant about 500 million. Dollars. Are Russian company to do it? it is extremely doubtful With the recent collapse of the stock markets in Russia.

"Welcome to the Magadan"

So, if Russia does not kindled desire without hope of a return of capital to invest in the Lugansk and Donetsk regions (forgetting about the pressing needs of their disadvantaged regions, of which in the Russian Federation - enough), will pop up another problem of total Ukrainian regions - unemployment. Even today, in the Donetsk region of 33.4 thousand unemployed in Lugansk on the dole are trying to survive 20,400 people. Keep them at the expense of the Russian budgetFederation will be expensive. But the emergency exit in Russian - is.

For example, the Russian Far East Development Minister Alexander Galushka already made a proposal to use the Ukrainians as a provision "on becoming a priority development territories in the Far East."

According to him, investment in northern Russia more than enough. But manpower is not enough. "The obvious advantage of attracting the citizens of Ukraine (in the development of the Far East - UNIAN) is that the Far East will be people without language, mental and cultural barriers," - said the Russian minister.

Well, really, what could be the difference in Luhansk and Donetsk, who are not willing to find a common language with their current or compatriots from the city of Ternopil, with the inhabitants of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) and Chukotka Autonomous Region? And about Kamchatka, Magadan and Sakhalin, perhaps you can and do not worry.