The main conclusion: Russia has no economic sovereignty

"And it can be a personal disaster for Putin."
Origin source
In the event that the Central Bank can not cope with the situation and raise shareholder value of the national currency in the coming weeks, following the currency crisis may start a bank. This is related experts and sources The situation is compounded by the fact that Russian banks have large domestic debt. they deny the existence of problems Cami.

Last Friday, the streets of Moscow to picket out people who have taken to zero currency mortgages in private banks. With double the fall of the ruble to pay the mortgage was not possible for them, banks refuse to restructure their debts.

Meanwhile, foreign currency borrowing is not only among Russian consumers, but also in Russia itself, in state-owned corporations, banks and private companies. According to the website of the Central Bank on July 1, 2014 the total external debt of Russia was 731.2 billion US dollars.

Of these, general government debt is $ 57.1 billion dollars (of which 682 million - payable regions), CB - 16 billion dollars, the banks - 209 billion dollars, the debt of other sectors - 449 billion.

December 16, "Kommersant" newspaper wrotethe second annual auction currency repo, which held the central bank (repo - a lending against securities). newspaper Experts say that the main amount was granted bail of "Rosneft" bonds placed last week. Source publication in a major bank said that just bail recently placed issues of "Rosneft" was drawn approximately $ 3.3 billion.

December 11 "Rosneft" has placed 13 issues of 625 billion rubles of bonds. Earlier in the summer of 2014, "Rosneft" has asked state unprecedented financial assistance to 1.5 trillion rubles. The debts of the company consists of little more than 2 trillion rubles, while the end of the year it should return to creditors 440 billion rubles, including foreign creditors.

In expert circles it is considered that it was placing "Rosneft" and the subsequent purchase of the bonds of its subsidiaries in the currency revenue and provoked the collapse of the ruble, although CEO Igor Sechin spoke on Tuesday denied it. According to him, "it is necessary to deal with the interested parties and provocateurs." "What is the leople, who are the bulk, Nemtsov and Kudrin, and whose goals are implemented, "- said Sechin.

Anyway, by the end of Tuesday, despite the fact that on Monday night, the Central Bank raised the rate to 17% in order to stabilize the exchange rate, the latter continued to crumble. In the afternoon, the ruble fell to a mark of 100 rubles per euro and then stabilized at 90 rubles.

682 million dollars of debt of regional concern to Moscow, but hardly inflict a serious blow to the capital budget, this peer review gave regional program director of the Independent Institute for Social Policy, Associate Professor, Faculty of Geography, Moscow State University, Doctor of Geographical Sciences Natalya Zubarevich.

"Moscow has always made external borrowing, it is well served by these debts, and the amount of the capital budget are small. Yes, the increase in debt due to rising currency - it is unpleasant, but Moscow to deal with that, there is no cause for concern ", - said Zubarevich. interlocutors among economists say that, following the currency crisis in the Russian banking crisis may come,especially if the panic will begin and people will pick up their contributions. The second problem - foreign currency debts of the banks, which are now grown at least twice in ruble terms.

The system SPARK data on financial debt of banks listed on the exchange rate of 1 US dollar to 43 rubles; it is almost one and a half times more expensive than at the beginning of the year, but half the price than yesterday's rate.

In the top ten banks, which have large debts to foreigners according to SPARK system - "Sberbank" (debt of 32.207 billion US dollars), VTB Bank (23.739 billion US dollars), OJSC "Gazprombank" (23.069 billion US dollars), Vnesheconombank ( 18.525 billion US dollars), JSC "Rosselkhozbank" (12.445 billion USD), "Alfa-Bank" (6 billion US dollars), JSC "Nordea Bank" (5.811 billion US dollars), OJSC "Promsvyazbank" (4.706 billion USD), FC "Opening" (2.827 billion US dollars), ZAO "Raiffeisenbank" (2.352 billion US dollars). Slightly behind them JSCB "Rosbank", JSC "Unicreditbank", OJSC "Bank of Moscow", JSC "Russian Standard", JSC "Credit Bank of Moscow" - eand foreign banks have a half to two billion US dollars each.

"In these companies a huge problem, mostly because they all need to buy dollars to repay debts on schedule. The reason for panic in the banking sector is the fact that the Central Bank does not want to answer questions and offer to lend money only on foreign currency repurchase $ 50 billion a year. But the problem is that currency repo suggest a scenario in which the sanctions in 2015, should be repealed. It is likely that this will not happen. The main problem will be for those who need to repay the debt in 2015-2016, if they do not pay, the company is waiting for default. There was a settlement that would give China money, but he did not. With regard to the Central Bank, the history has shown one of the market players with bonds of "Rosneft": the government will save it "Rosneft", and the consequences of their actions do not count ", - says the source publications among leading economists.

First Vice-Rector of the HSE Lev Yakobson agree that the external debt of banks exacerbate their situation, but notes that some of them are sistemooBrazier with a large share of the state. "I think that in critical situations such banks state support, because it is - also a question of trust in the state itself, its reputation," - says Jacobson.

Former Deputy Prime Minister, co-chairman of the RPR-Parnas Boris Nemtsov believes that the banking crisis has already begun. "Banks have ceased to lend, because they do not understand how to evaluate them, and what is the exchange rate. Because of the crisis will sharply decrease repayment of loans, many people lost their jobs, will abandon the expensive equipment and vehicles taken for credit money. In addition, banks have huge foreign debts. The chances of a default state is now small: we have a small external debt. But on default of private companies - large. First of all under the threat will be small private banks that will not save power, "- said Nemtsov.

The banks themselves assess their chances of surviving the crisis quite optimistic and believe that gently treat their foreign debts. "Funding through external borrowing is insignificant and does not exceed 2% of the balance sheet totalAnka », - told in the press service of the" Bank of Moscow ".

The press service of "Alfa-Bank" the publication stated: "According to administrative data on 31.10.2014 the amount of foreign currency debt, Alfa-Bank, including promissory notes, was $ 4.7 billion balance sheet structure is well balanced both in terms of and.. on currencies. To mitigate the risks associated with the collapse of the ruble, the Bank maintains a significant liquidity cushion currency (about $ 1.5 billion of cash and cash equivalents and $ 3.2 billion as the trading and investment securities available-for-sale). Also, in order to attract additional foreign currency liquidity at Alfa-Bank has access to this instrument of the Central Bank, as a "transaction" currency swap "for the sale of US dollars for rubles." All of these sources in case of emergency will allow the bank to fulfill obligations to foreign partners on time and in full. In addition, it should be borne in mind that Alfa-Bank uses net asset hedging strategy to protect the capital from the adverse effects of a sharp weakening of the ruble exchange rate & raquo ;, - stressed in the bank.

"We do not have sharp peaks redemptions, all diversified. Therefore, there is no threat PSB ", - said the press service of" Promsvyazbank ".

"This year, VTB has no external borrowing, requiring repayment. In 2015, repaid liabilities totaling approximately $ 4.3 billion (equivalent), representing approximately 2.5% of total liabilities, "VTB Group," which does not represent a threat to the liquidity and financial stability of VTB "- such official comment given to the press service of VTB Bank.

Interlocutor publication, familiar with the situation said that the main danger is not so much the external debt of banks, as a possible panic of the population, if the exchange rate will continue to grow up, people will massively withdraw deposits from banks, to transfer cash into foreign currency and keep the house savings. According to the source forecast, this may occur if the New Year rate of the ruble against the dollar and the euro will not rise even to the level of last week; otherwise, the banking crisis and the panic of the population can be expected by the conin January.

Professor of the School of Economics and a columnist for the newspaper "Vedomosti" Konstantin Sonin in a conversation with recalled that in 2008-2009, during the crisis of the external debt did not manage the company "Rusal", resulting in a restructuring that can be expected in this again those who did not hold out.

"There is a danger of the banking panic. The situation is very serious: it is not clear how many days you can live with such a critical rate ", - says Sonya.

Political consultant Gleb Kuznetsov believes that recent events indicate tragic circumstance: Russia has no economic sovereignty, and it will not be soon.

"People have already started to take deposits from banks today and will continue to do so tomorrow. As a result, by the end of the year, we have come to the situation, as it was in the USSR: our sovereignty - this is our nuclear bomb. We produce oil and sell weapons, but we are absolutely dependent on the threat of foreign markets, and recent developments in the foreign exchange market and the beginning of the panic in the banking market is shown. Our tragedy is that Russia is nownot a classic sovereign state, we do not actually its currency. Currency - is a universal means of exchange, and the state is sovereign when it can assign price or a major influence on her - as do the US, UK or even Saudi Arabia. When your currency is actually owned by foreign players - which means that no sovereignty there. Western politicians have noted the weakness of our economy, but we laughed at them and called them clowns. The current currency crisis, I think it could be a personal disaster for President Vladimir Putin - he showed no less important for the sovereignty of his country ", - said Kuznetsov.