The Moscow real estate market is trying to find the bottom

For large investors, discounts on ready-made new buildings in Moscow are 30-40%.
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Housing prices in Moscow continue to fall, the number of new buildings is growing faster than demand. Over the past three years, the cost per square meter dropped by 30-40%, and, as follows from the report of the company "Rosgosstrakh-Life", theoretically, it can fall in price by as much. Insurers look at the situation with optimism, while further price reduction carries risks for mortgage borrowers and banks.

In 2017, the supply volume in the primary market of Moscow real estate amounted to 7.5 million square meters. m. In comparison with 2014, it has grown by almost one and a half times, and this is by no means the limit - developers are bringing to the market more and more new projects. Why this happens - the conversation is separate. The fact remains: a decline in prices and an increasingly affordable mortgage spurred demand, but it still is not enough to cover the supply.

In order not to keep vacant apartments on balance, developers are ready to sell them in bulk at a discount of 30-40% of the current price. The opportunity to purchase large apartment pools with a huge discount is described in the analytical report of Rosgosstrakh-Life, which is available to Versia. The document indicates that it is a question of "liquid real estate available segment". At the same time, large discounts are provided not only by developers, but also by banks seeking to get rid of collateral real estate.

There is where to fall

The report provides an analysis of the situation as of August 2017. Then, according to the company IRN-Consulting, on the market of "old" Moscow (excluding the elite CAO) was on sale 5100 apartments with a total area of ​​395 000 sq.m. Since then, the situation on the market has not undergone fundamental changes. So, the size of discounts in the report "RGS-Zhin" may indicate a further potential to reduce the cost of housing. Moreover, there are no prerequisites for reducing the supply.

In January-September 2017, between the TTC and the Moscow Ring Road started sales in almost a hundred new buildings with a total area of ​​more than 1.6 million square meters. m, which is comparable to the results for the entire 2016 year. Against the backdrop of this experts say: the market replenishes not at the expense of residential complexes, which were laid in previous years, but due to new projects.

At first glance, the actions of developers are contrary to logic: they increase activity despite the difficulties in the economy and the drop in the purchasing power of the population. But here it is necessary to take into account that up to 20-30% of the cost of the project, Moscow developers invest in its initial stage, often - even before obtaining a building permit. Therefore, it is unprofitable for them to hide "paper" projects under the cloth, it is more expedient to go to the site and open sales in order to repel costs. Further, after the appearance of co-investors, it is almost impossible to stop construction.

At the same time, in describing its investment idea, analysts of Rossgostrakh-Life note that "the Moscow market is chosen because of extremely low risks of lowering ruble prices in the segment of inexpensive housing," "the pace of construction in Moscow is constantly decreasing," and "the prevalence of demand over supply provides a rise in prices. " The last months show that in fact everything is exactly the opposite, but company representatives did not comment on the content of the report.

Mortgage trap

According to a number of experts, prices on the Moscow real estate market will reach the bottom no earlier than 2020. It is then that the supply in the primary segment can be significantly reduced due to the completion of existing projects. In addition, the volume of housing construction may somewhat decrease after the cancellation of the equity system, which, according to the plans of the government, will take place exactly in three years. Up to this point, the cost per square meter can decrease with the previous rates - up to 10% per year.

It can be said that the further fall in prices is not real estate is predicted by the Bank of Russia. The regulator decided to tighten the requirements for securing mortgage loans with an initial contribution of less than 20% of the cost of housing. Borrowers with a small starting fee are considered the least reliable, because they have a low level of income and do not have savings. However, until recently, large Russian banks quite easily issued mortgages with an initial contribution of 10%, and even without it at all. Bankers explained such generosity by the fact that in case of problems with the return of the loan they will be able to sell the borrower's collateral apartment. However, a further decline in property prices can lead to the fact that the cost of collateral simply does not cover the body of the loan.

For this reason, experts believe that buying a house in a mortgage today makes sense only to those who badly need a roof over their heads. The term "investment apartment" today has practically lost relevance, unless, of course, it is not a question of redemption of large volumes of flats for half the cost.