The Russian car market has not passed the crash test

In three to five years, new cars will become a luxury, constructor cars assembled from secondary spare parts will drive on the roads, mass theft of cars will begin to disassemble them into parts.
Origin source
At the same time, the share of the domestic and Chinese auto industry in the country will increase sharply, experts say. Finest hour awaits the Belarusian automakers.

The first day of spring brought another news about the closure of automobile conveyors and rising prices. The Hyundai plant in St. Petersburg suspends work from March 1 to March 5 due to a shortage of components. The company plans to resume production on March 9, but this is not certain. Today, AvtoVAZ raised prices for Lada cars by an average of 15%.

European car assembly collapsed

The day before, the WSJ reported that the Stellantis concern, which owns the Jeep, Opel, Citroen and Peugeot brands, is going to move its plant from the Kaluga region or limit production in Russia. Earlier in the same Kaluga, due to interruptions in components, the Volkswagen plant stopped. The Moscow Renault plant, which used about 40% of Romanian components, suspended production from February 28 to March 5, when Poland closed their transit through its territory.

All this is happening against the backdrop of a blockade of the supply of new cars to Russia. Shipment of Jaguar, Land Rover, Audi, Volkswagen, Skoda, Porsche and General Motors, PSA has been stopped. Daimler Truck has decided to terminate cooperation with KAMAZ, due to which the joint venture in Naberezhnye Chelny will stop the production of trucks and the supply of spare parts.

The local car assembly of other trucks of global concerns - Isuzu, Volvo Trucks, MAN - was under threat of closure. Difficulties also arise with components for Sollers-Ford, which are brought from Turkey through the port of Novorossiysk, Kommersant writes.

Who assembles and manufactures cars in Russia

According to Avtostat, the share of imported cars in the Russian market in 2021 amounted to 18% or 271 thousand cars. These are mainly cars from China (58 thousand), Japan (56 thousand) and Germany (34 thousand). But 82% or 1.2 million cars sold in Russia are assembled here.

By the beginning of 2022, 13 Russian enterprises produced 58 car brands. This is mainly an assembly of imported components, although the degree of localization has grown in recent years.

AvtoVAZ assembles: LadaX-Ray, Vesta, Granta, Largus, Lada 4×4, Nissan Almera, Renault Sandero and Logan.

Avtoframos produces Renault Logan, Sandero, Fluence, Megane and Duster.

Hyundai Motor Manufacturing Rus assembles Hyundai Solaris, Creta and KIA Rio.

Avtotor - BMW, Cadillac, Chevrolet, Hyundai, Genesis and KIA.

The Toyota plant in St. Petersburg produces Camry and RAV4.

Nearby, Nissan produces Qashqai, X-Trail and Murano.

Volkswagen plant in Kaluga produces Niguan, Polo and Skoda Rapid.

GAZ in Nizhny Novgorod assembles Skoda Octavia and Kodiac.

The PSA plant also produces the Vitsubishi Outlander, Peugeot 408 and Citroen C4

Haval Motor Manufacturing Rus - Haval F7.

Sollers in the Far East assembles Mazda.

In Solnechnogorsk, near Moscow, they produce Mercedes E-class.

Ford Sollers assembles Ford Transit in Yelabuga.

Only AvtoVAZ can be fully called a domestic manufacturer, although its latest models are the fruit of cooperation with Renault-Nissan.

Interestingly, the Japanese car assemblers in Russia - Toyota and Nissan, which is part of PSA - continue to work. And this despite the fact that Japan was one of the first to join the EU and US sanctions against Russia. It would seem that the domestic AvtoVAZ should have benefited from what is happening, but on February 28 its conveyor was also closed, and the company is looking for new suppliers in case of targeted sanctions. Because AvtoVAZ also depends on imported components by 20%. Lada XRAY, for example, is largely assembled from Romanian parts that are no longer supplied.

In addition, all Lada models, including the old Niva, are equipped with electrics and electronics from Bosch. Today it became known that the company has stopped deliveries of auto components to the warehouses of all its partners in Russia due to the sharp fall of the ruble, unclear prospects for working on the Russian market and problems with logistics.

On the evening of Tuesday, March 1, the AvtoVAZ conveyor resumed operation.

The market is running out of spare parts

Other major suppliers of auto parts have also stopped deliveries, and it is unprofitable to sell already imported parts at current prices. The Korean auto industry is under a special blow: last year, this country exported $1.5 billion worth of auto parts to Russia. They account for 15.1% of all Korean exports to Russia, for which the Russian Federation is the largest market after the United States and China.

The car market of the Far East is also experiencing great shocks, IA Prima Media reports. Its members report canceled flights with used cars from Japan. Some Japanese companies have stopped accepting bids from Russian importers at auto auctions. “We won’t be able to buy cars in Japan: they don’t take rubles, we won’t be able to buy cash yen, and our banks won’t be able to carry out transactions in the required foreign currency,” Vostok-Media quoted the auto businessman as saying.

Car repairmen expect that in March-April, difficulties will begin with the purchase of the most popular consumables: filters, brake pads, discs, shock absorbers, etc. Already, most distributors have increased prices by 1.5-2 times. In any case, the correspondent of the "Company", who did not have time to pay the bill for spare parts on the service in February, instead of nine thousand rubles, was forced to pay 15 thousand for them on March 1.

But the main problem is expected with automotive chips, the world production of which is controlled by the five largest companies - the Dutch NXP, the German Infineon, the Japanese Renesas, the American Texas Instruments and the Swiss STMicroelectronics. It is impossible to find a replacement for their components, experts of Avtostat say. If cars can be produced without radars, light and rain sensors, as well as multimedia, then without ESP, ABS and other active safety systems they can no longer be produced by law. Domestic chips will not save the situation here, because most of them are produced by the Taiwanese TSMC, which has already announced the termination of supplies.

Disturbing contours of the future

Avtostat experts calculated that due to the sanctions of automakers, Russia will lose 441,115 cars, which is a quarter of the market. The market is expected to shrink to 1 million cars a year. The price of the remaining cars will double, even the new LADA will become a luxury that few people can afford. Constructor cars assembled from secondary parts will drive on the roads, the number of car thefts for disassembly for spare parts will increase. But in the passenger segment, the status of the domestic and Chinese auto industry will sharply increase, and in the cargo segment, the triumph of the Belarusian MAZ and BelAZ will begin.

“On the horizon of three to five years, given the sanctions policy of Europe, which cannot be regarded as independent, the VAG group will leave our market: there will be no official deliveries of spare parts, there will be no cars,” predicts Ilya Sviridov, founder of the Club Service car repair company. “Thus, the Germans will doom their dealer network in Russia to bankruptcy, burying what they have been building for 30 years. But as soon as the situation changes, the same thing that happened after 2014 with GM will happen: they announced that they were leaving the Russian market, but three years later they returned to it clandestinely, creating the budget brand Ravon at the Uzbek plant. Money, you know, does wonders.

Toyota has already stated that it will not leave Russia, they attribute problems with the assembly line to a hacker attack, apparently they are waiting. The only problem with Asian suppliers is the shipping company Maersk, which said today that it will not transport cargo in containers by sea from Russia and to Russia. But our country is large, we border on many, so the logistics chains will be reviewed.”

But in Russia, a lot of cars have been bought in recent years. These machines will be on the move for another 5-10 years, and spare parts for them will be supplied. Part of the vacated niche will be occupied by the Chinese (so far they account for 7% of the car market). First of all, these are Haval and Geely.

Dealers are likely to switch to service, repair and tuning. At least half of them will close, experts say.

“Given the presence of the Haval plant near Tula, the Chinese, who cannot sell their cars in many countries, are interested in us as a sales market,” the owner of the service is sure. - Yes, of course, in the range from 1.5 million to 4 million rubles, these cars will prevail in sales. People need something to ride."