A risk factor when crossing the poverty line could be the presence of children, place of residence, their loans - that is, the ordinary circumstances in which each of us lives.
The report, prepared by experts of the Institute of Social Forecasting RANHiGS called "Risks of poverty and household resources." Results of the survey 3.5 thousand Russians discouraged: on the brink of poverty and relative prosperity balance of 28.8% of the population. For the poor, as we officially include those whose income is less than 9956 rubles a month.
Why more poverty
The main reason for the deterioration of the financial situation of obvious and banal. The Russians are falling so-called 'real disposable income "(that is, income after deduction of compulsory payments, corrected by consumer price index). And this fall is faster: in 2014, the reduction in income was only 0.7%, in 2015 - 6%. The expected drop in revenue by the end of 2016 should be 10% to the level of 2013.
Reduced revenue is as obvious and expected results in lower consumption: the population of the Russian Federation 70% somehow compelled to economize. 75.7% of Russians are saving on the purchase of clothing and footwear, 68.0% - on products, 67.5% - for entertainment, 57.7% - on holiday, 38.9% - on drugs, 6.3% - on . transport, durable goods, housing and communal services, etc. Women 'save on everything "75% of men - at 65.6%, it is more difficult given the thrift. It is interesting that although the saving of all ages, most people are tightening their belts in the age of 36-45 years, that is, those who, in theory, is solvent and the most socially active. No cost savings, only 20% of Russians surveyed middle-aged.
Socio-class bindings have no savings: find the money, and the princes, and mid-level employees and unskilled staff. 65% of top managers said that in 2016, the year were forced to watch carefully where and what the money is spent. Of those surveyed working hard to save had to 77,9%.
The difference, however, can be found in the subject savings. "On the whole" save 59% of young (18-25) people on personal consumption - 22%, on the maintenance of their traditional way of life - 19%. In the group of middle-aged (26-45 years old) in all save 60% on personal consumption - 25%, on the way of life - 12.5%. The "55+" group on everything, including food and medicines, saving vast majority. Only 4% said they save on the way of life - is not excluded, because the article in their household budget is simply not available.
What can help to reduce the income and, accordingly, the usual property status? Job loss, loans and "dependents" - children and elderly relatives, meet the authors of the study. Approximately half of the respondents (51.7%) live without the burden of the loan. However, the second half is heavily in debt: at 74.5% - consumer loans, 29% - private debt, 18% - mortgage, micro-credit took 5.4% of the respondents. In this case more than 13% of debtors unable to pay on time on one or more loans.
The older generation has a higher financial liability: no debts and credits live almost 75% of Russians over 55 years. Young (26-35 years), more likely to go into debt, to the zone of maximum credit risk stress experts carry more than 7% of young people.
Who, where, when
Residents of big cities with a million people less likely to gain heavy debts; those who live in small towns and villages - at risk. And most people with working specialties or unskilled personnel. Having a job does not guarantee prosperity. From working Russians (regardless of the positions) of approximately 30% rated their financial situation as good, 45% say - "average", 22% - "bad." At the same time 40% said worsening position of the enterprise on which work over the last year. Only 16% of respondents said that things were getting better.
Optimistic meet other grassroots workers: technicians, workers, ordinary workers of sphere of services and trade. Above seen another way: 45.7% of CEOs say that the economic situation in their enterprises rather negative. Fear of job loss - the constant risk factor and a source of stress. Layoffs in the next year, every fifth afraid of Russians working. Risk number two - the presence of children.
"Dependency burden affects the socio-economic situation of each member of the household," the report's authors wrote. And children under 16 - a stronger risk factor than "podroschennye" child - a student. Naturally, a very strong effect on the stability of the households in the presence of the family of a pensioner or disabled person. Collectively dependent burden is the reason that more than 50% of the population once again falls into the area of maximum risk. It is clear that in some cases this is complicated by the age factor (55+), place of residence (the villagers live harder than their urban peers).
How to climb back?
Permanent saving (not a good life) deprives the household possible to increase the resources to return to the usual socio-economic status, experts say. At the same time saving on the most basic - food and medicine - is that the family is likely to be on the verge of survival.
According to the forecasts of the World Bank on the results of 2016 the number of poor in Russia exceeds 20 million people. Poverty experts call revenue 3.1 dollar per person per day; extreme poverty - 1.9 dollar.