The share of Gazprom in European gas imports has reached a maximum and will not grow any more, according to a new survey of the International Energy Agency (IEA). Until 2040, Gazprom's supplies to the EU will be about 150 billion cubic meters. m, the agency writes. Russia will increase the export of pipeline gas only at the expense of the Chinese market, convinced the IEA, it may be about deliveries of 50-55 billion cubic meters. m per year. To do this, Gazprom needs to put into operation the "Siberia Power" pipeline to China, and then either increase its throughput or have time to build another one.
Western Europe is a key market for Russian gas exports: in 2016, out of a total of 179.3 billion cubic meters. m on the EU countries accounted for more than 86%, or 153.6 billion cubic meters. The expectations of Gazprom for 2017 are even higher.
"This year we will absolutely accurately set the historical record of gas export for Europe - more than 190 billion cubic meters. m ", - said in early October, the chairman of the board of the company Alexei Miller (quote on" Interfax ").
Further records may not be at least until the commissioning of the "Force of Siberia" follows from the long-term forecast of the IEA: the increase in gas consumption in the EU countries (+ 7% in 2016) is completed, it will be fixed at about 460 billion cubic meters. m per year until 2035. Due to the fall of its own production and the reduction of gas production in Norway, the EU needs by that time will grow from 330 billion to 390 billion cubic meters. m, analysts expect.
The additional demand will be covered primarily by the supply of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the USA and gas from Azerbaijan via the Southern Gas Corridor (TANAP-TAP project). The share of US LNG could grow to 10% by 2025, analysts of the IEA expect. "Gazprom" will be able to reduce the price of its gas so that LNG supplies from the US will become meaningless, the IEA acknowledges, but consider such a scenario unlikely.
The increase in the market share due to dumping does not contribute to the growth of Gazprom's revenues (and allocations to the state budget), in addition, depending on one supplier may not want to EU.
Russia also needs to reduce dependence on the virtually sole market and develop alternative export routes to Europe, the IEA believes.
For Europe, the IEA has a pessimistic scenario: by 2040, to reduce emissions, the share of renewable sources in the world energy generation reaches 66%. Gas becomes a balancing fuel, its consumption in the EU by 2040 is reduced to 342 billion cubic meters. m. Peak exports of Russian pipeline gas accounted for the mid-2020. - 220-230 billion cubic meters. m, then it declines to the level of 2016, but taking into account the supplies to China, the export to Europe falls by a third. 35 billion cubic meters. m of gas is exported as LNG.
Increase pipeline exports can be due to the expansion of the Chinese gas market, where consumption will exceed 600 billion cubic meters. (210 billion cubic meters in 2016), of which almost 50% will be imported, are expected in the IEA.
The contract between Gazprom and the Chinese CNPC, under which the Power of Siberia is built, provides for deliveries of up to 38 billion cubic meters. m. per year, the beginning of deliveries - December 2019. The pipeline can reach its design capacity in the middle of the 2020s, and Gazprom will be able to increase supplies in two ways: to expand the "Power of Siberia" or build a western route through the Altai. Regardless of the option, the project will be implemented no later than the beginning of the 2030s, the IEA suggests.
Increase the share of Russia in gas supplies to Europe would help access to exports of other suppliers, believes Director of the Energy Development Fund Sergei Pikin: "The main complaint of European regulators is the violation of" Gazprom "antitrust requirements." This could have a much greater effect than the supply of the "Force of Siberia," which is comparable to 4% of the European market, he said. The issue of canceling the monopoly of Gazprom for the export of pipeline gas is not considered now, Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said.
The export of Russian gas by 2040 can grow to 315 billion cubic meters. m per year, the dependence on the European market will decrease from 90 to 60%, the agency said in a report. Significant increase - 75-80 billion cubic meters. m per year - should provide new LNG-projects, first of all, "Novatek". Already in November, it is planned to launch the first stage of the Yamal LNG plant, and by 2023 the Arctic LNG-2 can be built (the total capacity of the two plants can reach 35 million tons of LNG per year). While in Russia there is only one large liquefied gas plant - in the Sakhalin-2 project (50% belongs to Gazprom). In 2016, two lines of the plant exported almost 11 million tons of LNG (about 14 billion cubic meters), in 2023-2024. "Gazprom" plans to build a third line - 5.5 million tons per year.