The summit of Russia and the US can end with both a breakthrough and a failure

To repel the budget of the Russian Federation in the amount of 683 billion rubles will not work.
World Cup 2018 was completed, remembered not only the Russian team's release in the quarterfinals, but also the quality of the organization. The tournament was the best for the entire period of the mundiales, the president of FIFA Gianni Infantino said. Russia now has a "different reputation," believes Arkady Dvorkovich, chairman of the Russia-2018 organizing committee, and this, from his point of view, is "more important than GDP" (their quotes from Interfax). It's difficult to argue with this, because the championship will have a modest effect on the economy.

Earn on patriotism

According to the Central Bank, the World Cup will accelerate the growth of Russian GDP this year by 0.1-0.2 pp, mainly in the II quarter due to the growth of retail, hotel, restaurant and transportation services sales. Consumer demand in June - July will grow by $ 5 billion, expects the chief economist of the Russian office of Bank of America, Vladimir Osakovsky.

The expenditure of foreigners was dispelled by the ruble weakened because of yet another anti-Russian sanctions, Moody's analysts noted. The inflow of currency even reduced the deficit of services in the balance of payments in the second quarter of 2018 - for the first time since the fourth quarter of 2016, VTB said in a review. But the growth in demand during the championship will not significantly affect the economy, the representative of the Economic Development Ministry notes, the effect will be more likely from investments in transport, telecommunications and energy infrastructure. Its operation and increase in the flow of tourists can add another 150-210 billion rubles for another five years. to GDP annually, McKinsey experts estimated in a study prepared for the government.

Hardly the costs of the championship (for its preparation and conduct, Russia spent, according to official figures, 683 billion rubles.) Will lead to a noticeable economic growth in the long term, analysts of UBS doubted: a final understanding of the economic benefits of the tournament will come only after a few years. Long-term effect will be insignificant, weaker than from the Olympics in Sochi, Moody's analysts are skeptical. Economic expectations from such events are almost always not justified, experts of the Center for Development of the Higher School of Economics warn in the bulletin "Comments on the state and business": for example, after the 1994 White Lillehammer Olympics, about 40% of city hotels went bankrupt.

Deputy Director of the Development Center Valery Mironov advises to use the "free" international advertising, which the championship provided to Russia: to increase the export of manufacturing industry, to promote the brand "Made in Russia". We also need to use positive experience from a fairly large influx of tourists, albeit short-lived, argues the chief economist of Alfa Bank, Natalia Orlova. For domestic tourism, the positive effect is more obvious than for the international one, for which the reputation of the country is also important, and predictable geopolitical conditions, analysts of UBS noted.

The long-term effect, according to the Development Center, will be immaterial - from a surge of enthusiasm and patriotism. Such a "positive shock", like the World Cup, can stimulate consumption and reduce fears about economic uncertainty, Mironov explains. But the surge of patriotism will not last long, notes political analyst Alexei Makarkin. The effect of the last World Cup, in his opinion, can be compared with the effect of the 1980 Olympics (and not from Sochi-2014, which was followed by euphoria from the annexation of the Crimea): "For many, this is one of the bright memories of childhood, but those emotions quickly left ".

What the regions won in the championship

Most of the influx of tourists will benefit from hotels, trade and transport, and these are not key sources of growth for the regions - the hosts of the championship, according to Moody's review. The nominal GRP of most of these regions will increase the championship by 1-2% this year: the smaller will be won by the smaller Mordovia and the Kaliningrad region. Investments in infrastructure will make up the bulk of all investments in Mordovia this year, and Kaliningrad, dependent on transit energy supplies, will be able to use new energy supply facilities.

 Unlike the Olympics-2014 and the Universiade-2013, most regions could not get into additional debts, as the main expenses for the preparation for the World Cup were assumed by the federal budget and private business, analysts Fitch wrote. Duty since January has grown only in Mordovia, says Natalia Zubarevich, chief research associate of the Russian Academy of Science and Technology. And also in the Rostov region, according to Moody's.

The construction of the public infrastructure - the airport, the road from the airport to the city - is always in favor of the city of a million people, but the stadiums built will be unprofitable almost everywhere except Moscow, Zubarevich argues: that the stadium pays off, it should be used weekly, and tickets must be sold for good price. The experience of Brazil, and the Olympic Sochi, shows that expensive objects can soon be abandoned, complement the analysts of UBS.

Municipal budgets will not be able to withstand such spending, which means that they will become a burden for the regions, Zubarevich believes, particularly serious problems will be in Saransk and Kaliningrad. For the budgets of small and financially weak regions - the same Mordovia - this can become a sensitive load, analysts at Fitch agree. In Sochi, to fill the hotels built for the Olympics-2014, according to Zubarevich, "drive all conceivable and unimaginable conferences, meetings of shareholders of state corporations," and there is not even a question of filling sports facilities. The cost of servicing the new sports infrastructure is unlikely to exceed 2-3% of the total costs of the regions, partially offset by ticket sales, Moody's analysts are more optimistic.

Getting to Russia

According to the organizing committee, 1.3 million people visited the World Cup, of which 570,000 were foreigners. For the duration of the championship, the number of aviation bookings in Russia increased by 32%, analysts estimated Aviasales. Before the match prices for air tickets grew at times compared to other days, analysts said an average of 3-5 times, but reached up to 12 times.

The second largest Russian airline, S7 Airlines, carried approximately 100,000 passengers whose flights were connected with the championship, says its representative. But against the background of annual traffic S7 (about 15 million passengers) is a small increase. "Ural Airlines" carried about 60 000 fans, said their representative. The representative of Aeroflot did not respond to the request.

 In Russia, the fans moved mostly on trains and cars, says the executive director of the Association of Tour Operators of Russia Maya Lomidze. According to preliminary estimates, the championship additionally attracted more than 2 million passengers, the representative of Russian Railways noted. Some of the passengers were transported from the budget.

The winning of airlines and RZhD from the championship will be short-term - passenger traffic will grow by less than 3% per year, Moody's forecasts, the profit will be moderate, as the state limited the growth of ticket prices.

The main beneficiaries in the transport sector will be Moscow airports, as other cities can not count on significant growth in tourism, Moody's believes. Passenger traffic Sheremetyevo for the month of the championship grew by 15% compared with the same period in 2017, Domodedovo - by 14.7%, Vnukovo - 17.1%, Sochi Airport - 18%, and all airports in Yekaterinburg, Samara, Rostov-on-Don, Nizhny Novgorod - by 35%, representatives of airports, "Basel Aero" and holding "Airports of Regions" tell.

Where did the fans live

According to the online reservation service OneTwoTrip, more than half - 52% of fans - stayed in traditional hotels. Further popularity comes from friends and acquaintances (28%), apartment rentals (15%), and 4% decided to spend the night in a tent or car. More than 277,000 fans (76% of them - foreigners) rented housing in Russia for the time of matches through the Airbnb service, its analysts told: this is 4 times more than a year earlier.

 The long-term effect of the World Cup will be felt by Moscow and St. Petersburg, the Regional Director for Revenues in Russia and Eastern Europe Radisson Hotel Group Antoine Mubarak is sure. In the regions, demand is unlikely to continue. "We do not expect a big increase in the tourist flow after the World Cup in Nizhny Novgorod," says Alexander Ogarkov, General Manager of Azimut Hotel Nizhny Novgorod: for this, it is necessary to develop and advertise the city, demand for the second half of July, August and September remains at the level of 2017.

World Cup provided a good promotion primarily to Moscow, Zubarevich argues: "Russia has shown that this is a normal country that can be seen, and this is a good story, but it will primarily affect Moscow, St. Petersburg and the Golden Ring. Luring tourists to Samara, and even to Yekaterinburg and Rostov-on-Don ... Explain how, I do not understand. " And even Moscow will find it difficult to take advantage of the opportunity if the barriers to obtaining a visa remain the same as now, she warns.

Fans blasted sales

The turnover of restaurants and cafes throughout Russia grew during the championship by 16%, the number of checks - by 10%, and the average check by 5%, the company "Evotor" (the manufacturer of smart online cash and cloud solutions), in the cities of the championship - by 31, 22 and 8% respectively. Almost all the shops and catering in the center of Moscow, the turnover rose to peak New Year values, notes managing partner of Colliers International, Nikolai Kazansky. Traffic at Nikolskaya, Bolshaya Dmitrovka, Kuznetsky Most, Petrovka grew more than threefold, agrees director of the direction of street retail company Knight Frank Victoria Kamlyuk. On the more remote from the Kremlin streets - Nikitsky, Tverskoi boulevards, Arbat - it increased by a maximum of 20%, and on the streets in the area of ​​the TTC and further to the Moscow Ring Road has not changed.

Demand increased significantly in restaurants near places of congestion of fans, and attendance - in 1,5 times, confirms the representative of "Chocolate Girl". The revenue from Rosinter Restaurants (restaurants TGI Fridays, IL Patio, Planeta Sushi, etc.) has grown by an average of 30%, and in some restaurants more than doubled, says company president Sergei Zaitsev. The championship created additional demand from the owners of bars and cafes for equipment, said the representative of M.Video-Eldorado: many people bought new TVs.

 In shops and supermarkets, sales also jumped. For example, in stores "Azbuka Vkusa" inside the Garden Ring and next to the "Luzhniki" - in 1,5-2 times, says the representative of the network: basically the fans bought ready-made cooking, snacks, alcoholic and non-alcoholic drinks. Traffic in supermarkets X5 Retail Group grew by 45-63%, and in the store on the Okhotny Ryad doubled, the company representative said. The growth of trade turnover was also recorded in "Auchan" and "Magnite", according to their representatives. In the top 5 of the best-selling products came lighters, soap bubbles, the figure of the wolf Zabivaki, a mug and a metal badge FIFA, fixes a representative of "Magnet".

The turnover of beer throughout Russia grew by 42%, calculated "Evotor", and in the cities of the championship - by 34%, strong alcohol - by 6.8 and 12%, respectively. The demand for beer even surpassed expectations, notes AB InBev Efes director for corporate relations and legal issues Oraz Durdiyev. According to Irina Fomina, Chairman of the Board of Directors of MBG Wine, alcohol sales increased by 25%: the forecasts were understated - for example, in the first half of the match Portugal - Spain drank a wine reserve for two games. A representative of X5 Retail Group ("Crossroads", "Pyaterochka", etc.) records a drop in sales of spirits: cognac - by 17%, and vodka - by 13%.

Non-core retail also remained in positive territory. In pharmacies "36.6" within the Boulevard Ring, revenue doubled, noted its representative, but after the quarterfinals, traffic began to decline.

The growth of trade turnover was short-term, after the end of the tournament it will decrease to the usual summer values, I'm sure Kazan. Until the end of July there will still be a plume from the World Cup at the expense of tourists-fans who decide to continue their vacation in Russia, but by August the situation will return to normal seasonality, Zaitsev agrees.
Football call

The World Championship also helped Russian mobile operators. They report on an unprecedented growth of roaming users and sales of special tariff packages for foreigners, but they do not disclose how much they have managed to earn. The operator's additional revenues from the World Cup may amount to 8-10 billion rubles., Mikhail Alexeev, managing partner of AC & M Consulting, estimates. At the same time, the aggregate revenue of operators for 2017 amounted to 1.1 trillion rubles., "Vedomosti" calculated.

 In the days of matches, SIM cards were 20% more than in the previous month, the representative of Tele2 Olga Galushina said. In the cities of the matches more than 50% of the sales of SIM cards in MTS salons were for foreign tourists; tariffs with a large package of mobile Internet were sold 2-3 times better than in May, the representative of the operator says. But it is unlikely that the championship can significantly affect the economy or the subscriber base of operators, Galushina believes.

Internet traffic operators of the championship increased by only 1% per month, ie, about 0.1% per year, recognizes the manager of one of the telecom operators. But the behavior of subscribers has changed, he continues, they began to actively use streaming and upload video to social networks. Many subscribers have discovered for themselves the streaming and high quality of the mobile Internet, agrees Alexeyev. In addition, operators noticeably brightened mobile TV sales, the expert notes. This is agreed by the representative of "Megaphone" Yulia Dorokhina, according to which the traffic of the application "Megaphone TV" in the days of the championship grew by 3-5 times. She hopes that subscribers have acquired a stable habit.