At the auction on April 18, the cost of a ton of aluminum for the first time since August 2011 has risen above $ 2500. Also, nickel has risen sharply - the cost of a ton of metal has grown by more than $ 1500. FT called nickel "a victim of Rusal syndrome".
World prices for aluminum continue to grow rapidly amid fears of a deficit following the entry of one of the largest metal producers, Russian UC Rusal, into the US Ministry of Finance's sanction list. During the bidding on April 18 at the London Metal Exchange (LME) the cost of a ton of aluminum for the first time since 2011 has risen above $ 2500. At the peak, the price of aluminum reached $ 2537.5, which is 5.88% higher than the closing level of previous trades and is the highest since August 2, 2011.
The sharp rise in aluminum prices began on April 6, after the US Treasury announced the inclusion of Rusal in its Specially Designated Nationals List (SDN). To date, the cost of a ton of metal has grown by about 25%.
"What's happening in the last couple of weeks is unprecedented," said Macquarie analyst Vivien Lloyd.
According to the forecast of Goldman Sachs analysts, if aluminum supplies from Rusal to the world market do not resume, the world prices for aluminum can exceed $ 3000 per ton in the near future, writes Financial Times (FT). The last time more than $ 3000 ton of aluminum was worth in 2008.
The day before, on April 17, it became known that Rusal had suspended at least a quarter of its aluminum exports for export. On the same day, Reuters reported on the refusal of Japanese companies to buy aluminum from Rusal because of fear of being subjected to secondary sanctions by the US (companies that enter into transactions with persons involved in the SDN sanctions list published by the US Treasury may be subject to such sanctions).
On April 18, LME also recorded the strongest jump in nickel prices since 2008, one of the largest suppliers of which to the world market is also Russia, reports FT. The cost of a ton of nickel jumped by more than 10%, or $ 1,500, reaching $ 15865 at the maximum. More than $ 15 thousand for a ton of nickel is for the first time since February 2015, and reached on April 18 mark was the maximum since December 17, 2014.
"Nickel fell victim to Rusal syndrome," FT founder Founder Malcolm Freeman told FT.
According to analysts, investors fear that in case of another expansion of US sanctions, Norilsk Nickel may fall under them, Reuters reports. "The prices are definitely affected by the likelihood that nickel will be included [in the case of a new round of anti-Russian sanctions]," Colin Hamilton, managing director for commodities at BMO Capital Markets, explained to Bloomberg.
The share price of Rusal after the introduction of sanctions against the company fell sharply. On April 18, trades on the Hong Kong stock closed at 1.42 Hong Kong dollars apiece, the company's capitalization fell to about $ 2.728 billion. Since the IPO held on the Hong Kong stock exchange in January 2010, the value of Rusal has decreased 7.7 times.
At the same time, shares of American companies Alcoa Corp. and Century Aluminum Co. from April 6 went up by 23.3 and 10% respectively. Papers of the Norwegian Norsk Hydro ASA, Chinese Aluminum Corp. of China Ltd and Indian Hindalco Industries Ltd during this time also significantly increased in price.