In the current season, Russia may first come second in the world in terms of grain exports, pushing Ukraine to third place. The total volume of supplies is estimated at 44-48 million tons. Achieve this result will allow a record harvest, good weather and low domestic prices.
According to the January forecast of the International Grain Council (IGC), this season Russia will for the first time become the world's second largest grain exporter, Sovekon said. Ukraine, therefore, will move to third place. MSZ increased the forecast for grain exports (excluding legumes and processed products) from the Russian Federation in the current season by 1.7 million tons, to 43.9 million tons, while for Ukraine the forecast is reduced by 1.5 million tons, to 41 million tons tons. The leader of the rating is the United States, which can export 80.3 million tons of grain this season, including 47.7 million tons of corn.
Last year Russia ranked fourth in the list of world grain exporters after the United States, Ukraine and Argentina. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, from the beginning of the season and until January 17, Russia increased grain shipments by 36.4%, to 29 million tons, to the same period of the previous year. Deliveries of wheat increased by 35.3%, to 22.6 million tons. The main reasons for Russia's entry into the second place in terms of grain exports in the world are record harvest and huge carryover stocks, which provided a general high volume of supply, Sovekona director Andrei Sizov said. Export is the main marketing channel for the record Russian harvest, the entire infrastructure is already operating at the limit of what is possible, says Dmitry Rylko, director general of the Institute for the Agrarian Market Studies.
The Ministry of Agriculture estimated that in 2017, 134.1 million tons of grain in net weight were harvested in Russia, which is 11.2% more than a year earlier, and 35.3% higher than the average yield for 2012-2016 (98 , 1 million tons). The wheat harvest (85.8 million tons) exceeded the level of 2016 by 17.1%, and the average for the last five years (56.5 million tons) - 1.5 times. Moving stocks of grain in Russia on July 1, 2018 MSZ estimates at 20.7 million tons. Thanks to good weather in Russia there were fewer storms on the sea, shallow water ports froze later, the attractiveness of exports also provided low domestic grain prices, Mr. Sizov lists. According to Sovecon, last week the average prices for third-class wheat in the European part of Russia fell by 25 rubles, to 8.57 thousand rubles. for a ton, the fourth - remained at the level of 7.5 thousand rubles. per ton. A year ago, wheat of the third class was trading at 10.3 thousand rubles. for a ton, the fourth - for 8.5 thousand rubles., follows from the index "Proserno."
Today Russia confidently dominates the world wheat market, "Sovecon" writes. The US Agriculture Ministry earlier raised its forecast for wheat exports from the Russian Federation in the current season by 1.5 million tons, to 35 million tons. Forecasts of export of culture from the EU and Australia are reduced by 1.5 million tons, to 27 million and 17.5 million tons, respectively. The estimation of shipments from the USA remained at the level of 26 million tons. The positions of the most important competitors for the Russian Federation are weakening: the EU - in the markets of North and West Africa, Australia - in the countries of South-East and South Asia, which this season are increasing purchases of Russian wheat, the Sovetone points out. Wheat is the main crop for the Russian Federation, Russia can not compete in deliveries of the same corn to the US and Ukraine, says Vladimir Protserno, general director of Prozerno.
According to Mr. Rylko, further rates of grain exports will depend, in particular, on the coordinated work of the infrastructure, the dynamics of the ruble exchange rate and the prospects for a new crop. The total volume of Russian grain exports this season is estimated at 47.5 million tons. Andrei Sizov said that in the near future, "Sovecon" will increase the forecast for grain exports from Russia this season at least 1 million tons, up to 48 million tons. According to wheat supplies, Russia will remain at the first-second place in the world in this and future seasons, Mr. Petrichenko believes.