What "the patched-up peace" will bring for Russia and Ukraine

Negotiations between Surkov and Poroshenko, the "party of war" in Putin's entourage and the fate of the "people's republics".
Origin source
DNR and LNR will have maximum autonomy within Ukraine, Russia - non-entry of Ukraine into NATO, Ukraine - the ability to stop the war. These interim results announced at the end of last week truce in the south-east of Ukraine. Znak.com questioned experts and resources about the current situation and its possible development.

The adage that a bad peace is better than a good war, was launched at the weekend in practice, in the south-east of Ukraine. It was the result of Friday's agreement in Minsk and the armistice agreement in Kiev to discuss the provision of the south-east of the "special status."

This was worth the late evening on Saturday to open the news feed as it became clear that the truce is very fragile in nature: shooting near Mariupol Ukrainian checkpoints lasted. DNR representative Moscow Andrey Rodkin failed to promptly confirm or deny the DNR representatives involved in these shootings, and the deputy governor of the Donetsk region, Konstantin Batozsky told me that the shelling of Mariupol, on the Ukrainian side version, militia forces- In violation of the declared truce.

"There is a fire ... I did see and hear ... The shelling comes from the village in the direction Shirokinino Mariupol heavy artillery. According to our estimates, a system of "Grad", they conduct aimed fire on the positions of the Ukrainian army. Already one refueling destroyed, field burning. Our army into battle. Around Shirokinino been prepared in advance positions to "meeting", and now there is the battle began, according to my information. Everything that is happening - a cynical act of ceasefire violations ", - told me Batozsky. At the same time there are reports of shooting near the Donetsk airport. However, on the perturbation of certain speakers about violation ceasefire situation is not yet gone.

Special correspondent of the publishing house "Kommersant" Ilya Barabanov, who is now in Mariupol, said Znak.com, now in the city are all relatively calm. "Shooting - this is, of course, a violation of the truce, but the rules because in order and written to be broken," - said grimly Barabanov1.

Chief editor of "National Defense" Igor Korotchenko also believesdeclared a truce "unsteady", given to the same lack of control of many battalions Kiev. "Hopefully, the ceasefire will be, but in Ukraine, there are enough people supporting the" war party ", including Poroshenko in an environment that will provoke the breach", - said Znak.com Korochenko.

What will happen next

Between all the parties to continue the negotiation process, there is unofficial information Ukrainian media that the Kiev Petro Poroshenko at the weekend met with Assistant to the President Vladislav Surkov, whose elite is considered one of the supporters of a peaceful settlement of the situation in the Donbass.

Political scientist Oleg Bondarenko said Znak.som that are currently in talks is finding a compromise on the main positions: transcript of the concept of "special status" for the Donetsk and Lugansk regions.

"No one has made it clear that it means" special status "- it is clear that the DNR and LNR disagree simply on extended autonomy. Moreover, those who know the nature of Ukrainian politics, understand that there can be easy forbeschat anything, and then do exactly the opposite. Therefore, as is the clarification of the issue of guarantees implementation of these promises. Performing these same promises is possible only if the changes the Constitution of Ukraine, the change in its status as a unitary state. In my opinion, the closest option - it is Bosnia and Herzegovina, which are de facto confederation, although they are formally a federation. On the agenda matters of election management bodies in the southeast, and their interaction with the Verkhovna Rada, "- Bondarenko said.

The head of the political conjuncture Center Alexei Chesnakov, considered close to Surkov says about the same thing: "In the process of fighting the warring parties explicitly come to the point of fracture, when they need a break, since none of them have no resources to change the situation in their favor. On each side there is an aggressive-minded radicals, who want to continue the war, and there is a conditional "pacifists" who are in favor of the war to begin to gradually withdraw. At this point a bit with the balancethe second place in the side. "

If we talk about under the desired political objectives stated and the presence of the Kremlin of long-term plans, I would like to recall a few conversations that took me to various acquaintances, close to the Russian presidential administration in March, in a referendum days in the Crimea, and later - after the start of mass unrest in Donbas.

All sides in the voice said that Russia does not have the goal of annexation south-east of Ukraine - both for political reasons, as well as purely economic: Russia can not at this stage to take a balance of Ukrainian state employees and retirees.

"Wait, everything returned to normal, will be no war. Achieve federalization of Ukraine - and all "- told me one of my interlocutors.

Meanwhile, there was a parallel and the "party of war" (to her elite decided to refer, for example, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu), speaking very actively in the public field and require the entry of the troops and enjoyed strong support within the DNI.

A popular keynote speeches today Weddi representatives of this party is "Surkov merged New Russia".

"... After the arrival Strelkova in Donetsk due to increase combat formations density militias could unleash forces and arrange the junta first large boiler, which would have ended the grand catastrophe with thousands of dead and missing persons, as well as with more than a hundred killed and captured militia armored vehicles. At the same time, the initiators of the negotiations with the junta (direct contacts carried himself Surkov and his men) and customers - Russian oligarchs such as Friedman and former members of the so-called family like Voloshin continued to negotiate with Akhmetov and Poroshenko ... The main interest of those circles that Surkov is, was that in order to avoid a direct confrontation with the United States that jeopardize their assets in the West and the opportunity to conduct business there. The boundary condition was preventing full discharge, that first of all beat by Putin, who would have to explain why at all pretentious jingoistic rhetoric, Russia openly repeatedly stoop in Ukraine - the village Yushchenkoavyat then ousted Yanukovych, and here and Novorossia passed. So while the spread rot Strelkova for the sake of trying to come to terms with Russian and Ukrainian oligarchs, tap "PX" began to slowly slightly opened, but strictly in homeopathic doses, "- describes his vision of the development of the negotiation process of the last few weeks LJ-user Colonelcassad, often publishing insides from DNR to position "war party".

In the Donetsk also uneasy: after removal from the post of the head of the self-proclaimed republic of Russians, political technologist Alexander Boroda, cases of looting, kidnapping, told Znak.com source close to the leadership of the DNI and extremely sympathetic to the idea of ​​New Russia.

"Boroday tried to keep everyone in a civilized manner, and Antyufeev arranged for a police state. The cellars of the former SBU building crammed "detainees." Ordinary citizens have the situation really tortured, they were never helps to build a peaceful life "- so the source publication assesses the current situation in Donetsk.

"For the DNR and LC main question on the saIOM's case - "who will pay for dinner?". Most managers believe that Russia should pay, as they cry about the Russian world and fight for him against "the Kiev junta." They also explain now, so that will not work. The main losers - those who want to continue to ride on the tanks and win historic victory, and in the evening to discuss the "Russian world". But in the modern world can not be so, the independence of the DNI and the LC in the form which it want to get these people in the realities of the XXI century there is no place. It is necessary to change the world or under them or change their concept. They are now in the negotiating process is to explain, "- said political consultant Gleb Kuznetsov Znak.som.

What are Ukraine and Russia?

Winning as a result of the incident of the crisis in Russian-Ukrainian relations is not, experts say Znak.com.

"This crisis did not initially match the interests of Russia. As a consolation to ourselves, we can only say that even if the ex-President of Ukraine Viktor Yanukovych would have gone to the forceful dispersal of Maidan, still he continued to deceive Moscow and further to a level ofruption to continue off-scale "- Bondarenko said.

Deputy Director of the Institute of CIS Countries Vladimir Zharikhin notes that one of the main interests of the Russian foreign policy is at least formally neutral status of Ukraine and its for absence in NATO (now it is impossible: with territorial problems of the country in NATO do not take). From this perspective, the goal is achieved, although the level of anti-Russian sentiment in Ukraine is now rolls.

"If we talk about the interests of Russia, they are, in my opinion, are: maximum autonomy DNR and LNR from Kiev with solid guarantees for the protection of political, social and cultural rights of people who opposed the Kiev regime and the economic independence of these territories in South-East ... "- says carefully Chesnakov.

All players are now getting the opportunity to go back to the beginning of the story and try to fix something, said the head of the Political expert group Konstantin Kalachev.

"Ukraine was convinced that a military victory is so close and desirable, escaped from her. DNR and LNR seenThat they do not become part of Russia. And, then, it is necessary to consider other options. Russia saw that margin has great and bend the West can and should be, "- said Kalachev.

Now for Russia removed from the agenda the need for a "peaceful invasion", that is, a war of aggression, and it gives the opportunity to exit from the situation in which Russia itself has driven.

"I do not support the process in the south-east of Russia seemingly can not but support also can not, because it leads to isolation. It is significant that this issue was removed from the agenda, even when the central television channels began to do stories about the dead Russian soldiers in Ukraine, and when all of this could have lead to a full-fledged war. If we talk about the lessons, I would personally delivered the lesson that we must not fall more than ever in such a situation. If we talk about Ukraine, Ukraine was on the verge of martial law. Economy is they always have been destroyed, just worsen the situation here is difficult, "- says Kuznetsov.

At the same time the sides Znak.com in Ukraine, close to the leadership of the ATO, elevechayut that the number of dead soldiers is very high, and in the army reigns total corruption by the leadership. In each city a few times a week, go to the funeral.

In Russian cities also bury the dead paratroopers that during the exercises in the Rostov region in a strange manner appeared on Ukrainian territory and came under fire. Nonpublic are burying the dead volunteers who went to fight in the militia DNR.

In some social networks citizens horrified the empty store shelves, while others call them national-traitors of love for some of the types of cheese - and require massive repression. Food prices are rising. Tables in expensive restaurants in Moscow, which enjoys political elite, still regularly backed up.