Preparation and holding of the World Football Championship in total for 2013-2018. will provide Russia with an additional 1% of GDP (about 820 billion rubles.), preliminary results of the research of the consulting company McKinsey, which Vedomosti learned, show. The operation of the infrastructure built for the FM and the increase in the tourist flow can bring an additional 80-110 billion rubles. to investments and 120-180 billion rubles. to GDP annually over the next five years.
Officially, 1.2 trillion rubles was spent on training, follows from the presentation of McKinsey. Mainly, it is investment in the construction of sports and transport infrastructure and improvement. Since 2018, the development of tourism will make an additional contribution to GDP. This year, tourism development will increase GDP by an additional 121 billion rubles, in the next five years - by 40-70 billion annually, according to the presentation of McKinsey. The flow of tourists from abroad to regions hosting the 2018 World Cup will grow by 14-18%, Russian tourists - by 10-26%. During the World Cup 2018, the revenue of 4-5-star hotels can grow to 40%, 3-star - up to 15%, the vice-president of the Restaurateurs and Hoteliers Federation, Vadim Prasov, argues. The Ginza Project (restaurants John Jolie, Mercedes Bar, Sixty, etc.) expects traffic growth and revenue growth in their restaurants by 25-30%, says its CEO Alexei Volkov. Representative of the network of coffee houses "Chocolate" waits for growth by 10-15%. In addition, the championship for another five years can annually provide 140,000-200,000 jobs, 60-90 billion rubles. additional income to the population, 20-30 billion rubles. tax revenues to the budget and 100-150 billion rubles. revenues to small and medium-sized businesses, count in McKinsey.
True, major sports events do not always provide a further influx of tourists. After the World Cups in Germany, Brazil and South Africa, the annual influx of foreign tourists in the next five years has really increased, as in Sochi after the 2014 Olympics. But, for example, in Turin after the Olympics-2006, there were fewer foreigners. The same applies to domestic tourism: in Sochi after the Olympics, it grew, and in South Africa after World Cup 2010 - fell, it follows from the data of McKinsey.
Most of the preparations for the World Cup-2018 supported Mordovia and the Kaliningrad region: due to the development of infrastructure, the gross regional product there in 2013-2018. will grow by more than 15%. In Tatarstan and the Krasnodar Territory, the infrastructure is already developed after the Universiade-2013 and the 2014 Olympics: there tourism should have more influence, and GRP will grow by 2%.
The chief economist of Alfa Bank, Natalia Orlova, does not share the optimism of the consultants: "It is assumed that we are building the infrastructure on which we will raise tourist flows, on the eve of the 2014 Olympics there were similar considerations. But, judging by the balance of payments, exports of services in 2013 were $ 70 billion, of which transportation services and travel - that is, tourism - amounted to $ 33 billion, and in 2017 were respectively $ 58 billion and $ 29 billion. that if the general economic policy is not aimed at further opening of the economy, it is not possible to use the new infrastructure. Therefore, it is not a fact that the 2018 World Cup will have a significant multiplier effect. "
After such events in some countries, the growth rate of the economy is declining, says BCS chief economist Vladimir Tikhomirov, for example, in Brazil there was a recession, in South Africa - a significant slowdown in growth. But on the scale of the Russian economy, there will be no failure of investments, he is sure: the total amount of investments annually fluctuates around 14-15 trillion rubles. and 600 billion in five years is only about 1% of all capital investments. In addition, if there was no championship, this does not mean that there would be no other investments: money would be spent on other projects, state orders for industry, construction of infrastructure. The additional effect of the championship can be expressed in the increase of the tourist flow, but it will last about a month, Tikhomirov continues. But the calculation that foreign visitors will like the country, it will improve the image of Russia and in the future will support the tourist flow, may not be justified: against the backdrop of sanctions and negative news about Russia in the media it is still unknown what will outweigh.