Stripping of the banking sector in the near future will only continue. And it is not excluded that the licenses ultimately lose up to half of currently operating banks. According to expert estimates, in the capital from 20 to 50% of credit institutions huge gaping "hole", and demonstrated their leadership assets - phony. That is the conclusion of experts pushes the experience of the recent past - the fact that the bankrupt banks in recent years about 60% of the assets reflected in the financial statements, in fact, had no value.
The appropriate conclusion is contained in the report of the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting (CMASF). This "hole" in the capital, according to analysts, will serve as the main reason for the further cleaning of the banking sector. "The statements about half of currently operating in banks we see the same indirect signs of a large-scale falsification of the value of assets that have been observed previously in failed banks," - believe in CMASF.
An indirect confirmation of the fact that large-scale sweepthe banking sector is yet to come, is the following fact: last week, the Deposit Insurance Agency (DIA) in its treatment received from the Central Bank a loan of 220 billion rubles to support the liquidity and payment of funds to depositors of banks burst. We note that recently the credit limit DIA constantly have to increase. It all started with a loan of 110 billion rubles, but the debts have risen to 420 billion in March of this year and during the summer - up to 600 billion. The current increase in the credit limit - the third in a row this year. Now, the debt to the Central Bank is already 820 billion.
According to industry experts, it is impossible to increase the limit of the infinite. If it goes on, the agency may have to require assistance. The other day at a meeting of the DIA Board of Directors decided to increase the rates for high-risk deposits and 400% to the base rate in the first quarter of next year, and in the second quarter - up to 500%. This is the maximum provided for by the law on deposit insurance. Recall that a single base rate payments to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) is 0.1% of srednekartalnogo deposit volume.
However, analysts estimate, to DIA such a solution is not very helpful, because in fact only increase the amount of contributions by 1.6%. So that the chosen path is likely to be a dead end. "Our position is that the increase in contributions to further hit the profitability of banks, and to collect a lot of money will not, - says a senior managing director, chief analyst Sberbank Mikhail Matovnikov. - The real opportunities lie in raising fund-raising in the process of recovery of assets of bankrupt banks. If paid out to depositors DIA 1 trillion rubles will be able to return at least 60% (the legal entity will not receive anything), the debt to the Central Bank will be back. " "Although, - continues the analyst - in the next year in any case, the DIA will need new loans."
At all will not suffice
Because it can be assumed that if the money runs out sources at DIA before the end redevelopment of the banking sector, it will have to pay for it by the very citizens. Simply put, the rules of the current deposit insurance system will be revisedus. Moreover, this idea has already been discussed in the past year. Recall that today as part of the insurance compensation to depositors of bankrupt banks are entitled to receive compensation from the state in the amount of up to 1.4 million rubles. In 2004, when the ACB is only the beginning of its work, the amount of compensation was only 100 thousand. Rubles.
All possible options discussed the deposit insurance system reform one way or another concerned infringement of depositors. In particular, it was proposed to limit the payments to only one bank, if the depositor money burned in several credit institutions. Or cut the accrued interest, returning to depositors only the original amount. Proponents of this type of reform as a result of the argument the fact that many banks are preparing to burst intentionally attract depositors prohibitively high interest rates on deposits, and the people with knowledge of state guarantees, in no hurry to think about the reliability of the bank.
However, further discussion is that it never went. On the contrary, the Ministry of Finance assured that no changes are planned. "The tightening in relation to citizensthe deposit insurance system will have negative consequences for the vast number of banks, including the good ones. If we had something done, other things being equal citizen would have suffered money in the five largest banks ", - deputy head of department Alexey Moiseev said. However, exactly the opposite position on the matter as early as May this year, said Chairman of the Board of PJSC "Sberbank of Russia" German Gref. According to him, Sberbank should not "pay for someone else's fraud, and long-term gaps in supervision," whereas it is necessary to modernize the system of deposit insurance. This statement was made by the head of the Savings Bank in response to increased basic contribution rate to the deposit insurance fund.
Crime in the TOP
According CMASF experts, the main problem of the Russian banking system lies in its device. Too many so-called pocket banks owned by only one owner or a group of business and serving only their interests. "The massive opening of" holes "(in capital - Ed.). - A consequence of the crisis for the traditional Russianmodel of reference of the private banking business ", - states in CMASF.
Moreover, experience has shown that it is not always talking about small banks, included in the third-fourth hundred. That only is noisy bankruptcy Vneshprombank, pobivshego all records unimaginable size "hole" in the assets, which amounted to 210 billion rubles. The bank was founded by the son and daughter of the famous Moscow "authority" Avdysh Bedzhamov, which, according to rumors, was able to control the entire metropolitan gambling business. In 1995 Bedzhamov killed. In the year of his father's murder of his daughter Larissa Marcus and son George, slightly changed his surname to Bedzhamov, founded Vneshprombank. By 2015, the Bank entered the top 50 largest banks in the country, and its customers are well-known Russian politicians, businessmen, stars of show business and even large state-owned corporation. Chapter Vneshprombank Larissa Marcus is now under arrest, but her brother managed to escape. And, apparently, not with empty hands, and taking with him, according to media reports, at least $ 3 billion. Bedzhamov now happily lives in Monaco.
"Bank of the last two or three years, CatchingIt discharges a fact that clears all of these stables. Maybe worth more actively do so. But in fact we can see that the banks disappear and the ones, which would have to disappear, - says Associate Professor of the Department of Finance of the Russian Economic School Oleg Shibanov. - Many banks are deprived of license or sanitize really drew statements or taken away deposits of balance. In this respect, indeed, probably exist even today, banks are not yet disclosed. " According to experts, those in our banking system can generate up to 20% more.
Signs of "holes" in the bank's capital
• A high proportion of assets in mutual funds paёv
• High turnover of funds at the box office
• High turnover of corporate securities portfolio
• High turnover of balances on correspondent accounts in foreign banks
• High turnover of overdue loans to non-financial enterprises
• The combination of the high proportion of retail deposits in total liabilities with a high proportion of loans enterprisesI eat in assets
• High interest rates on deposits of individuals
by the way
Dutoy The value of assets of bankrupt banks, on average, six times higher than their own capital. This means, calculated in CMASF that of every ruble loss in the value of banks' assets is only 17 cents paid for the owners of the banks, and 83 kopecks - their creditors and depositors (and state if it was a question of insured deposits of natural persons).