Russia can update the record for oil production

Exit from the OPEC + deal will allow Russia to increase oil production by almost 1% in the next two years, to 551 million tons this year and 555 million tons next year.
As a result, Russia can set another record for oil production in post-Soviet history. However, the current high oil prices carry the threat of continuing a sharp increase in the production of shale oil in the US, which has already made up 16% since the beginning of the year. The next year, the US can become the world's largest oil producer.

The Ministry of Energy expects that oil production in Russia will grow by almost 1% in 2018 and 2019, to 551 million tons and 555 million tons, respectively, the head of the department Alexander Novak said on July 25. Thus, the Ministry of Energy increased the forecast for this year by 3.5 million tons, as the OPEC + countries agreed to review previous agreements on the reduction of oil production. "These are preliminary estimates - a lot will depend on the dynamics of the market and the need to adjust our actions (with other OPEC +." "Kommersant"), "added Mr. Nowak.

Under the agreement, Russia reduced oil production to 10.9 million barrels per day, which is 300 thousand barrels per day below the level of October 2016. The arrangement lasted until the end of this year, but was adjusted in June, and under the new conditions, the OPEC + countries decided to further increase the supply by 1 million b / s due to a record decline in production in Venezuela.
As a result, Russia can increase production, according to Alexander Novak, by 200 thousand b / s (equivalent to 5 million tons in six months).

Thus, now the Ministry of Energy's forecast for production growth looks conservative and may be overfulfilled.

In fact, the growth in oil production in Russia began before the formal adjustment of the OPEC + deal - in April Russia exceeded its quota, and by mid-July oil production had risen to 11.2 million b / s, reaching a record level in October 2016, OPEC + deal.

Andrei Polishchuk from Raiffeisenbank believes that 551 million tons is a real target. According to him, now all Russian oil companies are increasing production through the drilling of new and old fields. To comply with the OPEC + agreement, companies cut production mainly on mature assets, but they will be able to restore it, the expert believes. According to Interfax, in the first two weeks of July, in comparison with the previous month, Rosneft (by 102 thousand b / s), Gazprom Neft (by 55 thousand b / s), LUKOIL 27 thousand b / s). According to Alexander Novak, by mid-July, oil companies have restored production by 80% of the reduction in the OPEC + deal. Meanwhile, the Ministry of Economy expects a slower growth in production - up to 549 million tons this year.

For 2019, the forecasts of agencies coincide. At the same time, the Ministry of Economy does not expect that there are serious risks of price stability, laying in the forecast the price of oil at $ 63.4 per barrel in 2019 with a decrease to $ 53.5 by 2025. Actual prices are now much higher and fluctuate in the range of $ 72-78 per barrel. Such prices should, as expected, support the growth of shale oil production in the US, which is still continuing at a very rapid pace - from the beginning of the year to July 20, production has increased by almost 16%, to 11 million b / s. The Information Department of the US Energy Ministry (EIA) expects an average oil production in the country this year at 10.8 million b / s, and in the next - an increase to 11.8 million b / s. If this forecast is justified, oil production in the US will beat its previous historical record, exceeding the level of 1970, and the US will become the world's largest oil producer.

EIA predicts a slight overproduction of oil in 2019, which could lead to lower prices (in the EIA forecast - up to $ 69 per barrel of Brent). However, the balance of supply and demand by early 2019 will seriously depend on how the US sanctions, which will come into effect in October, will affect the extraction and export of oil from Iran.