Sibur is conducting a preliminary study of the market, which may result in an initial public offering, Reuters reported citing its sources in banking circles and confirmed by several interlocutors of Vedomosti, who knew about it. The placement is planned on the Moscow and London stock exchanges, the source of Reuters reports, the volume of the transaction can range from $ 2 billion to $ 3 billion. In assessing its value offered to the market, Sibur proceeds from the values of $ 20-26 billion, says one of Vedomosti's interlocutors, close to the company.
"The deal can be combined, a part of the shares the company will sell through an additional issue, a part will go to the market due to a decrease in the proportion of major shareholders," - says the source of Vedomosti, who is familiar with the terms of the deal. The proportion between the new issue of shares being sold to the market and the decrease in the share of shareholders will depend only on the appetite of investors, he notes. Part of the shares in the event of placement may be sold by the current shareholders of Sibur, including the main owner of the company, Leonid Mikhelson, Reuters reported. Among the possible organizers of the IPO are Gazprombank and JPMorgan, RBC reports. The representative of Gazprombank declined to comment. JPMorgan's participation is confirmed by one of Vedomosti's interlocutors: "The rest are being collected - there will be a big syndicate"; the representative of the bank did not respond to the request.
"Like any successful company, Sibur is considering various strategic options for financing its growth and development," the Sibur representative said in response to Vedomosti's request, but did not comment on the possible placement.
The interlocutor of Vedomosti, close to one of the shareholders, calls the corridor $ 20-26 billion close to objectivity. "Simplified calculation is the following: EBITDA - about $ 3 billion ($ 2.9 billion in 2017 - Vedomosti). The average multiplier of comparable world-class companies - Petronas Chemicals (Malaysia), PTT Chemical (Thailand), LG Chem (South Korea) - 7.3. From the received cost we deduct net debt ($ 4.7 billion), but we add the size of capital investments in Zapsibneftekhim, "the source of Vedomosti says. By the end of the year, the amount of accumulated investment in the new Sibur project should be $ 7.2 billion, the company said.
Formally, the country discount in this method of calculating the cost is not, but the organizers pragmatically look at the prospects and a certain discount pawn, says Vedomosti's interlocutor, close to the organizers of the deal. "In assessing the underlying asset, despite the very high margins, the multiplier is lower than the more objective 8. This is a discount of a kind. As well as in the consensus estimate, EBITDA growth was not taken into account after Zapsibneftekhim's launch. For future investors, this is a tangible opportunity to make money, "he says.
"We constantly think (about the IPO." - "Vedomosti") and recently we often think more and more substantively, "Mikhelson said at the annual meeting of Sibur shareholders this year. In the summer of 2017, the businessman clarified that he considered optimal the IPO after the launch of Zapsibneftekhim.
The capacity of Zapsibneftekhim is 1.5 million tons of polyethylene and 500,000 tons of polypropylene, its construction is to be completed in 2019. The launch of the complex will allow Sibur to actually double the production of polyolefins. In the first half of 2019 the complex is supposed to be brought to the stage of mechanical readiness, said Dmitry Konov, chairman of the board of Sibur.
In 2016, when selling 10% of its shares in Chinese Sinopec, Sibur was valued at about $ 1.3 billion. Based on the same estimate, another 10% were later sold to the Silk Road Investment Fund. In addition, Mikhelson (48.5%), Gennady Timchenko (17%), Kirill Shamalov (3.9%) are among the largest shareholders of Sibur.