The Bank of Russia is preparing for a large-scale money issue in order to pour hundreds of billions of rubles into the Russian banking system, which was on the brink of a full-fledged crisis due to the nearly broken bank "Otkrytie" - the 8th in the country in terms of assets and the 7th in volume Deposits of natural persons.
Since the beginning of summer, the Central Bank has already injected 333 billion rubles into the "Discovery" in the form of repo loans to cover the flight of corporate clients and private investors, who took in total more than a third of all funds from their accounts.
Taking the bank under the control of the sanation fund, the Central Bank will continue injections: the "Discovery" will conduct an additional share issue, the regulator will buy them, becoming the owner of at least 75% of the bank, said the deputy chairman of the central bank, Dmitry Tulin.
The further actions will depend on whether the "Discovery" has any real capital. According to Tulin, its size in the reporting is likely to be overestimated; The true state of affairs within three months will be determined by the interim administration.
About a possible "hole" in the capital of the "Discovery", Tulin says for a reason - it is, and its size is almost not a record for the Russian banking system, three Russian bankers told the Financial Times. According to them, the bank's problems are comparable to what was found in the Bank of Moscow, which in 2011 was sanitized and affiliated with VTB Group.
"Opening" will require additional injections worth about $ 14 billion, or more than 800 billion rubles at the current rate, calculated one of the sources of the FT.
The money is needed not only to increase the bank's stability, but also to maintain its solvency, says junior director for bank ratings "Expert RA" Vyacheslav Putilovsky: given the size of the "Discovery", this will be "hundreds of billions of rubles."
"Such an infusion of funds is actually a money issue," recalls the head of the department for operations in the Russian stock market, Fried Finance, Georgy Vashchenko: assistance to the troubled bank is provided through a "printing press."
According to Vashchenko, to save the bank will have to "print" a record 830 billion rubles. And taking into account the injections already made to the bank, the amount may reach 1.2 trillion rubles.
The injection of such a volume of emission mass into the system can put pressure on the currency market and the ruble exchange rate, though, in the long run, warns the senior analyst of AMarkets Artem Deev.
But the central bank does not have a way out: it is obvious that the destiny of more than one "Discovery" is at stake, and the banking system as a whole, the crisis in which on the eve of the presidential elections-2018 can not be tolerated, says Alpari analyst Romant Tkachuk.
"A number of Russian banks, formed by private capital, have close economic ties with each other, the default of one of the banks may lead to the appearance of the effect of a" house of cards, "explains Expert RA analyst Anastasia Lichagina.
At the moment, from 20% to 24% of all loans issued by Russian banks are either not serviced in principle or payments are in arrears, the international rating agency S & P reported in June. In monetary terms, this potential hole in bank balances reaches 11 trillion rubles.
Further clearance of the sector is likely to reveal new problem banks, says senior analyst Fitch Alexander Danilov. Already, there is a "flight to the quality," he notes: customers withdraw money from accounts and transfer them to large state-owned banks or "daughters" of foreign banks. This process can accelerate, which will "create risks for the liquidity of some weaker private" lending institutions.