Trade is leaving the Russian regions

New trade centers commissioning can achieve a ten-year minimum.
In 2017, a record low volume of retail space can be introduced in the regions of Russia - less than 700 thousand square meters. M. Developers leave the regions because of a decrease in the activity of buyers and retailers: while the former are less likely to look into shopping centers, the latter are increasingly thinking about reducing the number and area of ​​stores.

In 2017 in the regions of Russia can be introduced 698 thousand square meters. M of quality retail space, this is 25% lower than the same period last year and the lowest value for the last ten years. Such forecasts are given in the study of the company "Shop of shops." Analyst of the research department of Cushman & Wakefield Evgenia Safonova cites similar data: according to her, in the regions of Russia this year will be introduced 700 thousand square meters. M of retail real estate, which is 14.8% less than the previous anti-record recorded in 2009 (822.24 thousand square meters). In CBRE, the total area suitable for leasing (GLA) and announced for commissioning in 2017 is estimated at 542 thousand square meters. M, this is 37% less than last year.

The introduction of regional retail real estate has been steadily falling since 2014, when 1.88 million sq. M. M, according to the data of the "Shop of shops." Already by the end of 2015, this indicator fell by 45%. In 2016, the fall was estimated at 12.2%. The largest retail objects that will be introduced in the regions of Russia in 2017 in the Shop of Shops are the second lines of the SEC "Europe" in Kursk (GLA 98 thousand sq. M.) And the shopping and entertainment center "Galaktika" in Barnaul (65,5 thousand sq. Sq. M.), The shopping center "European" in Novosibirsk (45 thousand square meters). In CBRE, the biggest object is called "Solontsi" (105,000 sq. M.) In Krasnoyarsk.

The head of the "Shopping Centers" department of "Shop of shops" Diana Zaznobina associates the fall in construction volumes in the regions with the fears of developers in relatively small towns: projects in them and developers and retailers perceive as risky. According to the estimates of the consultants, in 2016 the share of small cities (up to 300 thousand people) in the total structure of the new retail property was reduced from 19% to 9%, medium (300-500 thousand people) - from 15% to 13%. The share of Moscow grew from 26% to 38%, of St. Petersburg - from 2% to 5%. "Retailers massively adjust their development plans, reducing the area and number of stores in the regions, there is simply no demand for new premises," adds Alexander A. Morozov, director of the consulting, analysis and evaluation department at S. A. Ricci. The fall in the interest of retail chains to the regions occurs against the background of a decline in consumer activity. According to Watcom estimates, for example, in Yekaterinburg, the indicator shopping index (including the dynamics of attendance of retail centers) in January-February this year fell by 9.7% compared to the same period last year, in the large cities of the Volga region - by 5%.

Yevgeny Safonov calls lowering the volume of commissioning of retail space the result of a policy that developers have been implementing since 2015. Since that time, individual projects have been announced, objects that have already begun to be commissioned have been commissioned. "Now the market is in a stage of recovery, we are marking the first growth signals: the Grozny Mall (suitable for leasing an area of ​​59,000 sq. M.) In Grozny and the Brosko Mall (31,000 sq m) in Khabarovsk , But the volume of new construction will not grow until 2019, when they will be introduced, "- she argues. In the "Shop stores" are waiting for the market to be restored in 2018, when many of the projects under construction will be introduced.

Entering commercial real estate against the background of the crisis is falling not only in the regions. For the second consecutive year, no new trade center was opened in Moscow in the first quarter of the year. In total, according to the results of 2017 in the capital, 177.5 thousand square meters are planned for commissioning. M of retail real estate - this is 2.5 times lower than the indicator of 2016, estimated earlier in CBRE.

 

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