To save VEB, almost drowned under the weight of assets in 2014, the government decided to allocate 150 billion rubles to it in the capital. in 2016-2019. Enough and 100 billion rubles., The government has changed the mind. Reduction is provided for by the government-approved draft budget for the next three years. VEB will be able to fulfill all its obligations with less support, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov is sure (his words on Interfax).
In 2018-2019 years. VEB has to pay external debts of about 240 billion rubles. Therefore, it is necessary to maintain the size of state support, VEB's representative insists. Management counted on 150 billion rubles. If the subsidy is reduced, VEB will be forced to refinance external debts through other market sources or reduce support for the economy, he warns. According to the basic scenario of the new strategy, VEB should invest 460 billion rubles in the economy. in 2018-2020, under the scenario of extended support - 850 billion.
"VEB with 100 billion rubles. will survive, but with difficulty ", - worries a person close to the state corporation. VEB still holds a siege and hopes that the decision will be changed, the federal official knows. The work of the project financing factory, which the government expects to launch on VEB basis from 2018, will not affect the reduction of state support, the state corporation representative and official state.
Assistance was provided to VEB for a double purpose. First, increase the capital adequacy. After the creation of reserves for bad assets, it sagged, and, although VEB is not a bank, covenants on eurobonds are tied to the standards. Secondly, the same liquidity was to partially go to pay off obligations on eurobonds. Deprived of the sanctions to refinance the external debt, VEB could not pay for them in February 2016. In 2017, the bank received a respite, the peaks of repayments fall on 2018 and 2020. However, For three years, VEB has to pay about $ 6 billion on foreign debts, it follows from his presentation.
Now VEB is being funded, mainly by placing bonds and attracting money from banks, another 20% of its liabilities are a debt to the Central Bank and the government. Now the State Duma is considering a bill that will expand its ability to raise money - any company, not just those whose projects it leads, as now, will be able to open accounts with VEB. But this is not cheap money, Vnesheconombank Chairman Sergey Gorkov explained. They will not replace free budget money, VEB's employee points out.
The economy will only benefit if VEB cuts its support, says Natalia Orlova, chief economist at Alfa Bank: any state investment is ineffective. VEB only partially participates in its money in the factory, the official objected: its main task - acting as an anchor investor, attract private co-investors.
I am confident that the defaults will not threaten VEB, says Fitch analyst Anton Lopatin: the ruble strengthened, which reduces the burden on eurobonds, and partially external debts of VEB can be refinanced by internal ones. There should be no problems with capital, he continues. According to the reporting for 2016, VEB had about 1.1 trillion rubles. potentially impaired loans (depreciated plus past due but not impaired), and reserves are created at 800 billion. If there are no new serious problems, then the planned support will be enough for full redundancy, Lopatin reassures.