In the first quarter of 2017 in Moscow, housing was 59% less than in the first quarter of 2016, - 322,900 square meters. M, according to Rosstat. Completed construction falls in Moscow for the second year, in the first quarter of 2016, 12% less housing was introduced than in the first quarter of 2015.
Traditionally, in the I quarter there are no high results, the main input is at the end of the year, says a representative of the Moscow construction complex. The head of irn.ru Oleg Repchenko agrees with him: "Input is an indicator of the market two years ago, from the point of view of the market, the offer is more important." The objects that are being introduced were laid two or three years ago, in the midst of a difficult economic situation, a representative of the Moscow construction complex confirms his words. The head of the group of companies "Ingrid" Anatoly Frantsev explains the drop in the commissioning of the construction stages: most of the projects under construction are at the initial and intermediate stages of readiness.
Basically, the reduction was provided by the new Moscow: there were introduced only 135,700 sq. M. M, says a representative of the Moscow construction complex: within the boundaries of the old Moscow, entry dropped by only 35%. The Moscow authorities also announced their intention to limit housing construction in the annexed territories.
"The main focus is on creating jobs and developing infrastructure. In the near future, it is planned to commission four large commercial facilities, "says Vladimir Zhidkin, head of the new territories development department.
Probably, because of the difficult economic situation, developers delay construction and hand over objects more slowly, believes Repchenko, before the apartment was sold at the early stages of construction, today in ready-made houses up to 30% of apartments are not sold.
In 2016, more than 40% of the planned for the delivery of residential complexes postponed the timing of input, knows the managing partner of the "Metrium Group" Maria Litinetskaya.
In the suburbs, the input was not so much reduced: by 8.9% - 1.166 million sq. M. M.
Stabilization of demand for new buildings allowed the commissioning of the projects started on schedule, the representative of the region's minstroi explains. The density of developers is still the largest, but the price per square meter is still quite competitive, the Moscow region partner Khimki Group Dmitry Kotrovsky describes.
In Russia, housing starts are also decreasing, according to Rosstat, by 15.8% to 13.1 million square meters. M. One third of this property is for individual housing construction - 4.8 million square meters. M.
Significantly decreased the commissioning of real estate in the Nizhny Novgorod region - by 26.6%, in the Tyumen - by 35.5%, in the Sverdlovsk region - by 49.2%. Ministry of Construction of Russia and predicted a decrease in the input, said his representative, to improve the situation, the government allocated additional money to stimulate housing construction.
"Moscow is more painful than others, the price in its market was stronger than other superheated ones," Repchenko believes. - In world practice there is a formula: the cost of a meter should be equal to the average monthly salary. In Moscow, there were many investment buyers, and with an average salary of 60,000-70,000 rubles. Per month the meter cost 200 000 rubles. And in the regions, the cost of housing more or less correlates with the income of the population. " Now, he said, there are a lot of offers on the market and prices are being gradually adjusted. "Do not dramatize the situation. In 2015, offers in new buildings increased by 56% compared to 2014. This means that at the end of the current year or early next year we can see a new growth in commissioning comparable to the record 2015 (3.8 million sq. M.), Believes Litinetskaya.
Zammera Marat Khusnullin reported that Moscow has created a huge urban development, which will allow the construction industry to work steadily in the coming years. According to him, there are permits for the construction of 27.6 million square meters. M of real estate, including 18 million square meters. M of housing.
Among the regions - the leaders in commissioning, in addition to the Moscow region, St. Petersburg (1,117 million square meters, an increase of 24.4%) and the Krasnodar Territory (1.047 million square meters, a decrease of 7.5%). Olga Trosheva, the head of the consulting center "Petersburg Real Estate", explains the higher than the all-Russian housing commissioning indicators in St. Petersburg by the fact that the demand and the introduction of new facilities are at a consistently high level - about 4 million square meters. In addition, together with Moscow, St. Petersburg picks up part of the regional demand, in St. Petersburg it provided about 30% of sales.
The crisis in the construction industry is exacerbated
The state order and the introduction of real estate are falling, the delay and the number of bankruptcies are growing
This conclusion follows from the report of the rating agency of the construction complex (RASK). In 2016, Russia completed construction works for a total of 6.18 trillion rubles. This is 4.3% lower than the same indicator in 2015 in comparable prices (Rosstat data). In general, the cost of construction works is reduced within three years.
One of the most important indicators of the development of the industry, RASK analysts call works on state procurement. It provides more than 60% of investment. The total amount of government purchases for the year amounted to 5.8 trillion rubles. Compared to 2015, the amount of contracts fell by 11%, and their number - by 29%.
The fall would be much greater if it were not for the construction of the Kerch bridge and football stadiums for the World Cup - 2018, believes Ilya Ponomarev, a member of the public council under the Ministry of Construction. The bulk of these investments fell on road construction and the oil and gas industry, the report says. A year ago, the head of Rosavtodor Roman Starovoit stated that his agency would give up new construction projects because of the fall in oil prices and a reduction in the federal budget's expenditure. Then the draft federal budget for 2016 provided for 553 billion rubles. For financing Rosavtodor, in 2017 - 494 billion rubles.
Reduced and the input of real estate. In total for 2016, according to the Federal State Statistics Service, in Russia it was commissioned 131.4 million square meters. M (a decrease of 5.7%). In Russia, for the first time in six years, there has been a reduction in housing construction, it amounted to 79.8 million square meters. This is 6.5% less than in 2015, which was a record for the whole history of the country - then 85.3 million sq. M. This success was due to projects that started in the pre-crisis period, and in 2014-2015. Many investors have postponed new projects, the report says.
"Yield of the construction industry, according to Rosstat, is 5.2%. The industry grows on condition that the yield reaches "inflation plus 1%". Last year, official inflation was 5.4%. That is, no matter how much you invest in the industry, your earnings will be lower than inflation, "Ponomarev comments. As a result, companies leave the market, and the sector's lending is declining, he points out.
Bankruptcy recognized 3183 companies, which exceeds the same indicator of last year by 17.3% (2713 bankrupts). And among the recognized insolvent old-timers prevail. 66% of bankruptcies existed for at least seven years, according to the report of RASK. Another 32% of companies exist from three to seven years, and only 2% are young companies. This is partly the effect of megaprojects, says Ksenia Tsaplina, marketing and market research director of FGC "Leader". A large proportion of bankruptcies in the Southern Federal District, in her estimation, are companies that participated in the construction projects for the Sochi Olympics-2014.
As a result, since September 2014 the share of the construction industry in the loan portfolio of banks has been steadily declining - from 9.7 to 7.4%. The share of overdue loans for ruble loans was 24.7% - every fourth ruble is a problem, the report says. At the end of 2015, loans were issued by 32.5% less than in 2014. In 2016 there is an increase of only 6.4%. Almost half of the portfolio of loans is formed by Moscow (49.7%), followed by St. Petersburg (8.1%).
It became difficult to get loans. For example, if earlier on an open line of credit the financing of the facility continued depending on the stage of construction, now banks are looking at how the sales are going, points out the partner of Khimki Group Dmitry Kotrovsky. "Since 2014, there has been a restructuring of the market structure, increasing concentration. Small companies that sold 1-2 objects, like everyone, faced a decline in demand, "says Zaplina. - This increased arrears, complicated financing by banks, disrupted the investment process and increased the bankruptcy of small companies. This is confirmed by official statistics. "
The fall in orders from the state only worsens the situation in the industry and gives rise to stagnation in early 2017, predicts RASK. Ponomarev agrees: "Legislation changes: in June, a new system of self-regulation will be launched, in September - a new pricing system, in parallel a large volume of technical regulation documents is adopted, the law on shared construction is changed." In five years, when the economy begins to grow, it may turn out that there will be nobody to build, he warns.
The real estate market adapts to this new reality, the relationship between it and the macroeconomy is becoming more controversial and ambiguous. In recent months, oil rebounded above $ 50 a barrel, the ruble strengthened, but the surge in demand for real estate did not happen, rather the opposite. For example, in the Moscow region, the offer is so large that it will probably be possible to sell all that has been built, provided a revolutionary reduction in the cost of housing, says Oleg Repchenko, head of the analytical center irn.ru.