Against Moscow and Brussels: who came to power in Poland

The conservatives from the party of former Prime Minister Jaroslaw Kaczynski returned to power in Poland. He is known for anti-Russian views and does not forget to remind that he had always warned about the threat from Moscow, experts say.
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According to the results of the parliamentary elections in Poland, held on Sunday, October 25 the Conservative Party, "Law and Justice» (PiS) won 39% of the votes and won the right to form the government. In the majority PiS system operating in the country can claim, according to exit polls, at 232-240 of the 460 seats.

For the first 26 years of existence of democratic Poland, more than half the seats in parliament received a single party, the last time a comparable representation was the Communists in the Seimas, elected in 1985, before the fall of the pro-Soviet regime. First woman prime minister (Eva Kopacz of the "Civic Platform") will change as a woman - Beata Szydlow.

PiS's victory broke a five-year dominance of right-liberal "Civic Platform" in Polish politics: the presidential election in May 2015 the acting head of state Bronislaw Komorowski, the candidate of the PiS lost to Andrzej Dude. In the words of The Guardian, Sunday's vote "has completed the turn to the right in Poland."

Prior to 2015 Duda and Szydlow were little-known politicians: the new president was one of theeputatov the European Parliament and the future prime minister the last ten years the Seimas town Chrzanow. The head of the party PiS, Jaroslaw Kaczynski, the former prime minister and brother of the late President Lech Kaczynski. According to Politico, the European edition, it was he who would be "gray eminence" behind the decisions of the president and prime minister. Duda Candidates in the presidential and parliamentary elections on Szydlow Kaczynski supported due to its high anti-rating in the country, says Politico. The task was to win the PiS, rather than a particular person.

Hybrid candidate

Szydlow Beata was born in 1963 in Auschwitz in miner's family. A historian by profession, she studied ethnology at the Jagiellonian University in Krakow. After graduation in 1989, she remained in the department as a graduate student, also works as an assistant at the Historical Museum of Krakow.

Szydlow political career began in 1998 when a young cultural scientist won the election of the mayor of a small town Brzeszcze 7 km from his native Auschwitz. In 2005, she enters the PiS and at the same place in the Sejm. itsit retains the mandate after the elections in 2007 and 2011. Since the autumn of 2014 she works treasurer PiS and as head of the election headquarters of the presidential candidate of Poland Andrzej Duda. After winning Duda PiS leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski called her a candidate for prime minister in case the party wins the October elections to the Sejm.

Limited popularity Szydlow and the direct patronage of the Kaczynski indirectly indicate that it is "a passing figure" for the PiS leader. The political scientist reminded Constantius Gebert BBC, that a similar incident occurred in 2005. Then the Prime Minister from PiS became Kazimierz Marcinkiewicz, who eight months later transferred power Kaczynski. "Szydlow not last long. It is entirely a creation of the chairman of the party Kaczynski and acting in his discretion ", - said Hebert.

All the people

Based on the political weight Kaczynski, observers believe that the policy of Poland under the new leadership will largely repeat the course in Warsaw in 2006-2007, when the government led by Jaroslaw Kaczynski, and his brother-biznets Lech was president.

For example, one of the most important decisions Kaczynski's cabinet was the reduction of personal income tax rates. At this time in the PiS program is tax cuts for small businesses and an increase for large enterprises, the expansion of social assistance and reduction of the retirement age. "Such populist program, coupled with harsh criticism," Civic Platform "on the adoption of the refugees caught the PiS a substantial part of the electorate, those who have not received a personal benefit from the Polish economic boom of the last ten years", - writes the Financial Times.

If the government, "Civic Platform" is cool about the idea to distribute the refugees from Syria across all European countries by quotas, the Kaczynski spoke about migration crisis harshly. According to him, the refugees' carry cholera in Greece, dysentery in Vienna and a large variety of pests. "

If Warsaw toughen its policy towards refugees, it should be viewed not so much as alienation from Brussels, but as the fulfillment of the agreements of the Visegrad Group, which includes Polandon a par with Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic, the expert said IMEMO Irina Kobrin. "The leaders of the four countries previously agreed that a united front against the European Commission proposed a system of quotas for the reception of refugees. Three countries opposed, Poland nevertheless approved the plan ", - she says. At the same time, be sure to Kobrin, the question of Syrian migrants have now is less acute, so to say that the new Polish government clearly fails to support a quota system, it is premature.

The refugee problem is the key, but not the only discrepancy party PiS with the European authorities. German magazine Spiegel recalls: during the premiership Kaczynski German-Polish relations have deteriorated markedly. "Kaczynski is not a hater of Europe, like those politicians Eurosceptics, they want to get out of the EU - says Spiegel. - But he was genuinely convinced that Brussels simply serves the interests of Germany and that the Germans themselves willingly conclude an alliance with Putin against Poland. " Kobrin notes, however, that the PiS leadership took into account their mistakes in relations with Berlin and in the future will not allow skaas the "showdown" with the western neighbor.

Looking east

Politico suggests that if PiS antigermanizm ten years ago was due primarily to personal predilections Kaczynski, now the main criticism of the new authorities will be directed against Moscow. "We value the relationship with Russia. We want it to be an important economic partner. But we have to remember here that it is primarily the enemy ", - said Szydlow during a televised debate in mid-October (quoted by RIA Novosti).

In order that the new authorities will respond is critical of Moscow, agrees and economist David Marsh, co-founder of the Forum monetary and financial institutions (OMFIF). "Kaczynski could use his return to politics, to remind you that he has always warned the West about Putin's aggressive intentions, undermining its image in the world arena," - said the expert MarketWatch.

However, the general euroscepticism PiS may indirectly also play into the hands of the Kremlin. So, Judy Dempsey of Carnegie believes that the Conservative victory would complicate harmonization single Europeanth position on the Russian question. This, however, does not mean that Warsaw can be expected to change the position of European sanctions against Moscow. "In contrast to the eurosceptics, standing at the head of Hungary and the Czech Republic, Kaczynski is known for his anti-Russian views", - added Dempsey.

Moscow has not be able to play on the differences of Warsaw and Brussels - Kobrin believes that attempts to split within the EU from outside are not very successful. Make sure it can be an example of the same in Hungary, which is favorable towards Russia, but on the issue of sanctions prefers to maintain the common European position. "If after a while really begin easing the sanctions regime of the EU and, respectively, kontrsanktsy Russia - and the Poles suffered a lot from them - only then will have a chance to normalize relations", - says RBC Kobrin.