Breaking ties with Ukraine will cost the domestic Federal Space agency, or rather, the Russian budget, at least a billion dollars. Around such an astronomical sum will fly alone localization of production in Russia. A year ago, experts have called an entirely different price of our possible losses, 10 times smaller. Why is agency management chose to hold on to the last line, and that prevented him to make a decision sooner, thus minimizing the loss of budgetary funds? Incompetence, negligence or arrogance?
The final realization that the services of Ukrainian subcontractors refuse still have on the space agency leadership, according to rumors, yet condescended month and a half ago. Surely superiors had already assessed the losses, but voice them aloud, for obvious reasons, feared. Head of Roscosmos Oleg Ostapenko could quite recall it more optimistic than the April interview with "Vedomosti", in which he said: "We hope that the Ukrainian side obligations are fulfilled. As for the prospectselations with Ukraine, we expect that they will continue and will be fruitful. " What was behind all these hopes and calculations, it is not clear. Only one Russian maybe Likely. Perhaps by the summer of Ukrainian crisis is over. But it has not ended. Moreover, the newly elected Ukrainian President Pyotr Poroshenko promised to completely dismantle any cooperation with our country in the framework of the military-industrial complex. In general, the clouds began to thicken over the space agency leadership.
In Roskosmos underestimated the political risks or overestimated their own capabilities?
It is said that the Samara Vladimir Putin's visit to Roskosmos expected dripping cold sweat. The head of state examined the rocket and space center "Progress" and held a meeting, during which it was not only the launch of the latest developments, but also that such products should be applied to completely replace imported components soon. And then we are talking about the possibility of continuing the program "Sea Launch" for launching spacecraft from the territory of the Pacific Ocean - Afteruet emphasize that cooperation with Ukraine and the United States under the program is now frozen. And representatives of Roscosmos casually let slip that de production Dnepropetrovsk launch vehicles "Zenith", "could be established and" progress ". According to rumors, Putin endorsed the idea.
The meeting took place on July 21 and the next day the space agency leadership risked voice the cost of localization of production in our country. Thus, by 2018 the industry will require about 33 billion rubles and 3.5 billion - in the current year. Especially touches the next departmental passage - to the allocation of additional funds from the budget of the Federal Space Agency, it is ready to save on the low-priority programs for the implementation of the import substitution plan. It is interesting to know on what exactly, or this passage -so, for effect? But salt is not the case. And the fact that more 24 April Oleg Ostapenko on the country solemnly declared that "the production of Ukrainian carrier rocket" Zenit "will not be transferred to the Russian enterprises due to the unstable situation on theUkraine. " "As for the" Zenith ", I can say that it does not reproduce the booster one in one sense here" is a quote by RIA "Novosti". So, the "unstable situation" space agency leadership was informed in a timely manner, and therefore, clearly assess the risk of its collapse hasty. Or underestimated? Agree, there is something wrong -in April Roskosmos claim that "production will not be tolerated," and just three months later, in July - "... you can adjust and" progress "! But, in fact, since then, nothing has changed. Dnipropetrovsk in March, informed the Moscow that Russian orders execution collapses completely and irrevocably. What do expect? What hope? And who is now asking for late action agency losses which are estimated to number nine zeros?
Space programs intend to develop to the detriment of the defense industry?
Counting means necessary to "compensate for the negative effects of the gap of cooperation with enterprises ukrainsth DIC ", engaged in ad hoc working group established by order of the head of Roscosmos Oleg Ostapenko. Here, by the way, amusing, if the results of the work of this group became known on July 22 and on the presidential approval of the transfer of production to Russia -dnёm before, then, consequently, the working group to the 21st acted almost on the sly, or what? After all, according to Ostapenko, about any break ties and speech could not be, and therefore also of the "compensation of negative consequences." Or the Commission has calculated all in one day, or rather, on the night of 21 to 22 of July? Go know.
Where do we now take these sought 33 billion? The federal space program, which runs until 2015, Roskosmos intends to withdraw 2.28 billion rubles (program operates since 2006, and not the fact that in its budget for anything else lying around, however, Ostapenko and his comrades know better). Also because of the federal target program "Development of the military-industrial complex for 2011-2020" will extract 23.24 billion. Of the target program "Development, restoration and organization of strategic deficit and import-substitutinging materials and low-tonnage chemistry for weapons, military and special equipment in the 2016-2025 years "- more
7.48 billion. There are, however, a subtlety that no one clearly does not explain. Expenditures under all these programs were strictly painted long before the July event this year. And if hastily drawn from the defense industry development programs as much as $ 23 billion, which means that remain unfulfilled any other, certainly not less important programs that have to the same defense and, therefore, of paramount importance for the country.
New command - the new rakes
And it is not clear enough whether the space agency announced this year's extra 3.5 billion. For example, Corresponding Member of the Russian Academy of Cosmonautics. KE Tsiolkovsky Andrew, son of John doubts that will be enough, "Usually the biggest costs are in the first year." And indeed the whole current situation of Jona was referred to as "strange", "The gap was not unexpected with Ukraine, the first call was back in 2004 when it came to power, Yushchenko. Then it became clear that sovmespro- grams need to fold "and Roscosmos had to prepare for the termination of cooperation. "And if we are in 2004 remained within the same cooperation with Ukraine, the people who are responsible for this trend in the Federal Space Agency, should be driven out filthy broom." It's hard not to agree is not it?
According to the study of the Royal Institution of Great Britain united services, about 4.4% of the total imports of Russian military make deliveries to Ukraine, about 60 kinds of products. About a third of all of these products -Key components for intercontinental ballistic missiles SS-18 that is produced in Dnepropetrovsk plant "Pivdenmash". Two types of ballistic missiles, SS-19 and SS-25 "Topol", designed and manufactured by domestic enterprises, but their guidance systems produce in Kharkov. Missiles these three types account for more than half of Russia's strategic nuclear potential. By Roscosmos all these data are not directly related, but they are most relevant to nationalharrows. Imagine that all this production will have to debug again, in Russia - because the Ukrainian president has already announced that from now on the cooperation between the two countries there is a cross. Presented? Now imagine how much money it will take. Hundreds of billions! They will certainly find - most likely in the same place, where they are now looking for Roskosmos, in targeted government programs. Guess with three times, who give priority to - space or military authorities? And to think there is nothing. As it turns out, in the coming years Roscosmos destined to stall, and together with the agency and all of our space programs?