This year will bring a worsening conflict through intra-state corporations and governments, in the oil and defense industries, the banking sector. A great regrouping of the elites, and experts believe the sources Znak.som.
A few months ago in the report "Politburo 2.0," describes the relationship between the Russian elites among themselves and with President Vladimir Putin, the company Minchenko Consulting has forecast that in 2015, in a serious economic crisis, the fight clans markedly activated: resources becoming less state support receive, not all have to fight for a place at the trough.
Even now, looking at the one who received the money at the first request, and to whom they promised, but is not given (or who have given, but not as much as others), you can do a number on the development of the assumptions of several well-known in political circles intraelite conflicts.
A few days ago, the State Deposit Insurance Agency has published a list of banks that are eligible for state aid. From the state-owned banks to help claim Group BB, Gazprombank, Rosselkhozbank, two sources told RBC government. Banks VTB Group DIA will allocate more than 300 billion rubles .: VTB - 193 billion rubles, its retail "daughter" VTB 24 -. 65.8 billion rubles, the Bank of Moscow -. 49 billion rubles. Gazprombank will provide 125 billion rubles, Rosselkhozbank -. 69 billion rubles.
Chairman of the Board of VTB Bank Andrei Kostin is among its shareholders - the Russian government, the billionaire Suleiman Kerimov, Geberali funds, TPG Capital, Norway Norges Bank, National Bank of Azerbaijan, as well as Chiba Construction Bank. Gazmprombanka shareholders are "Gazprom», Vnesheconombank, Sergei Rosenberg, "Tinkoff", SDC, as well as the bank's management. Chairman of the Board of Directors - Chairman of the Board of OJSC "Gazprom" Alexey Miller. Chairman of the Board, "Bank of Moscow" - all the same Andrey Kostin, its main shareholder - VTB Group.
Referring to the report of the "Politburo" and examine the slide "The orbits of power", it turns out that Kostin together with the head of the Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina, the head of the "Savings" German Gref, Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov,of Ministers of Finance Anton Siluanov, and Assistant to the President Alexander Belousov is in the same sector and in the orbit of influence of Yuri and Mikhail Kovalchuk and Alexei Miller - in the orbit of influence of Gennady Timchenko, the same Kovalchuk and the head of "Rosneft" Igor Sechin.
Of state support of private banks can get Alfa Bank - 62.8 billion rubles, the banks of the "Discovery" -. 65 billion rubles, PSB -. 30 billion rubles, the Moscow Credit Bank -. 20 billion rubles, the bank "Russia" -. 13 billion rubles, "Uralsib" bank -. 12 billion rubles, MDM Bank -. 9 billion rubles. The parent company "Alfa-Bank" is a company in Cyprus. Not directly controlling stake control Mikhail Fridman, German Khan, Alexei Kuzmichev. By the banks of the "Discovery" have to do with a millionaire Alexander Mamut, the vice-president of "Lukoil" Leonid Fedun, millionaires Vadim Belyaev, Ruben Aganbegyan, Alexander Nesis, Sergey Gordeev and others. Chairman of the Board of Directors of "Promsvyazbank" is an ex-senator Alexey Ananiev, his brother Dmitry is still with the Council of the Federation. Community PropertyCENI ICD - Roman Avdeev, the bank Uralsib - Nikolai Tsvetkov, MDM-Bank - a variety of financial institutions, including - offshore.
Friedman also refers to the orbit of influence of Kovalchuk, Mamut believe is quite a close friend to the first deputy head of the President Vyacheslav Volodin administration, Friedman - a presidential aide Vladislav Surkov, is also considered that Friedman's cool relations with Sechin after "Rosneft" has bought TNK-BP (Friedman then headed TNK-BP Board of Directors, however, left his post after the completion of the transaction, which did not agree).
Thus, support for the banking sector is looking in different directions: the Kremlin is trying to appease a variety of financial clans.
Moreover, the banking sector is a priority for another structure: according to unofficial data, this market has a great interest in the FSB.
It is noteworthy that the bank "Russia" Yuri Kovalchuk is isolated by a relatively small state support, which was the occasion to whisper to reduce the impact of the businessman popavshegunder the sanction of the first.
State support is not received and the bank, the brothers Arkady and Boris Rotenberg (SME Bank), also said the source publication in a lobby. But the large amount of state SC "Discovery" has caused a lot of jokes about the fact that the owners of the banks in the group, came into favor, while there is a hypothesis that banks group under the patronage of the Central Bank.
Professor at the Higher School of Economics, Konstantin Sonin noted that in the near future conflicts in the banking sector can only escalate. 'In the banking sector the money go free than to state corporations, the more that the price paid for the allocated funds does not occur so publicly as a means for the NWF. The main venue will now fight the banking sector, rather than manufacturing, "- said Sonin.
The same opinion is shared by the ex-deputy prime minister, now - the co-chairman of the RPR-Parnas Boris Nemtsov. "The basic priority in the crisis, as I see it, will help the banks. There will play the role of not only economic considerations, as "conceptual", and there will be noMet values of the government's position. At the level of the cooperative "Lake" is meaningful communication with President Putin, and not with the government, "- said Nemtsov.
Great potential for conflict there is in the other two sectors, the oil and defense.
For example, difficulties with direct state support from any of "Rosneft", it can be connected with the old conflict between the head of the company Igor Sechin and the current government headed by Dmitry Medvedev.
"In late 2014," Rosneft "asked for funds from the National Wealth Fund, and its application, according to observers, exceeded 2 trillion rubles. After the company has not received these funds, it is estimated in the request for $ 1 trillion, - says the editor of the markets «Oil & Gas Journal Russia» Ilya Alcove. - However, recently reappeared information that the government does not authorize the provision of this money. History seems to be not finished, and the oil and gas giant will still attempt to get help. Let us not forget that the corporation just yesterday held another major issue of bondsth and attracted serious ruble funds. It is understood that "Rosneft" has concentrated today the lion's share of Russian oil production, under the field development are taken large loans, and must serve, you need to provide tax payments (including the export of raw materials), and corporations need to conduct large-scale projects, particularly in the field of modernization refineries. Some investment may be sequestrated, but many will continue as they are carried out under the auspices of increasing gasoline quality standards, stability of its supply, to avoid petrol crises and the jump in fuel prices. But the fate of a project such as the construction of the Eastern Petrochemical Company (VNHK) under tightens the crisis - is clearly under threat. In any case, the discussion of "Rosneft" in the region with financial support by the government will continue ", - says Ilya Alcove.
Znak.com source close to the presidential administration, said that in recent months the government has complained to the Kremlin on the behavior of "Rosneft" in the foreign exchange market in December 2014, kotoRoe could provoke a collapse of the ruble. The Kremlin was even written government report about it, says the source.
Former Deputy Minister of Energy, the leader of "Democratic Choice" Vladimir Milov believes that the position of the head of "Rosneft" Igor Sechin has recently weakened.
"This story is reminiscent of the story of Sergei Chemezov before the crisis of 2008, when he was one of the most influential people in Putin's environment. However, it turned out that the corporation headed by him "Russian Technologies" pick up distressed assets. Now his star has faded a bit. The same thing happens with Sechin, "Rosneft" was the main target in a problem situation that has developed in response to the crisis. She has a big corporate debt, which should give fast, "Rosneft" - the largest petitioner money from the state and government. Sechin is now in a state of dependence on the financial and economic bloc of the government, and government can repay him. "Rosneft" is not given the money, its "muryzhat" state-owned company in the heavy sievesuatsii, although for the sake of them have already made emissions. Now the government will give the industry the conclusion of all the "Rosneft" projects and I think that will turn into a campaign against Sechin. However, the "Rosneft" has political support, have a relationship with Vladimir Putin ", - said Milov Znak.com.
In the defense industry's complicated too. In this field there are two most influential players today - Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and head of the State Corporation "Russian Technologies" Sergey Chemezov, and the weaker player - Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin. The influential head of the holding Uralvagonzavod Oleg Sienko, according to the report "Politburo 2.0", is also included in the sphere of influence Shoigu (though a lot of it is in contact with Rogozin).
source publication, close to the government, outline the relationship between "Sergei" and "Dimitri" is now a "very complicated."
In particular, according to information from the two interlocutors, Shoigu voiced proposals for restructuring "Rostekhnologii" (it is headed by Sergei Chemezov) for the de-monopolization of the industry, however, is the idea of success has not crowned. FPractical losing foreign markets, "Rostekhnologii" was completely dependent on the state of the same Ministry of Defence.
Dmitry Rogozin also continues to apply to an informal position of "chief political deputy prime minister" and constantly expressed support for the Russian defense industry, the militia of Donbass and so on. However, as sources said the significance of this individual should not be compared with such titans as Shoigu and Chemezov, who in a crisis situation, are likely to find a common language.
As a result, the balance is as follows: "Rostekhnologii" not reformat, but the question on means of support for the military industrial complex enterprises is not yet resolved. From the State Duma received an offer from the deputy Vladimir Guteneva provide them with 4 trillion rubles, but the final decision is taken.
the source publication are advised to pay attention to exactly who will be the main person responsible for the allocation of state support, and noted that on this basis may be a conflict through Shoigu - Rogozin, which is likely to win Shoigu.
In general, as one of the sources Znak.com, «Stored popcorn": coming crisis restructuring of the elite.
The source said that due to the crisis Dmitry Medvedev's government, which began to accompany retire from day one, is temporarily stabilized, but all intra-elite conflicts will continue to grow during the current year.
Head Center for Political Technologies Igor Bunin notes that the elites everyone has to fight for access to the first person, that is - to the endangered resources, but even this may not be enough today.
"Previously, the proximity to the first person gave carte blanche, but now we see that this carte blanche, you can lock. We must stand in line for state, you can play it in a few places but around the whole can not. The argument becomes the danger of a social explosion as a result of the termination of the organization - for example, the same "Rosneft". That is close to the first person became less important than the presence of a potential large-scale social conflict. As for the government, it is doomed to slaughter. Maybe three months may,Erez six months, maybe a year. But as long as it distributes the money and it can be said that this enterprise to put state support, and the other - no, "- says Bunin.
"There are two different processes in the elite - says political analyst Olga Kryshtanovskaya. - On the one hand - this is the consolidation of the centripetal, when people realize that there is an external enemy, and see the leader, whose team want to be; and the stronger the onslaught of the enemy, the more cohesion. But there is a second aspect: state aid, which should be divided, and then begins to play a greater role of internal competition, which will worsen, "- said Kryshtanovskaia.
The author of "Politburo 2.0" report, the head of the International Institute of Political Expertise Yevgeny Minchenko believes that still should not be overestimated strengthening government: it performs the function of an accountant issuing money.
"I do not agree with the view that the state corporations have weakened, and the government intensified. On the contrary, it is under severe pressure from, and who knows how many will work: at least until the end of the Presidiotskogo term of Putin, though prematurely resign. In my opinion, the most interesting thing happening around the financial "triangle": Gref (the head of the "Savings Bank"), Elvira (the head of the Central Bank), Kostin (VTB head). The first attack on the policy of the Central Bank was repulsed, when Putin said he trusts the policies of its leadership. But there is a question, how much is enough stock of trust in them ", - said Minchenko.