Crimea annexation to Russia as a whole will be extremely unprofitable business: low costs of reunification are estimated at 100-130 billion rubles. Only during 2014, the total infrastructure costs of the peninsula, according to preliminary estimates Economic Development Minister Alexei Ulyukayev, can be three times more. But these costs will undoubtedly involve a large number of beneficiaries, those who will help to develop the money.
In fact, the Russian Federation will become a new mega-project, which will replace the just ended Olympic Games. It is no secret that many in the modern Russian elite are the main source of income due to large government orders arising from the emergence of some multibillion-dollar projects. These categories of officials and businessmen and their companies simply can not afford to stop, so the country should always have in stock a few sverhproektov.
Characteristically, the main "looking" for the Crimean construction projects of the Russian Federal Government will be appointed Dmitry Kozak, has supervised the Olympic construction. According to rumors, in connection with Mr.vym, "Tauride" front work to introduce a special Kozak vice-premier in the Crimea and the Southern Federal District (similar to an existing post "Far East," the vice-premier).
Moreover, there are plans to create a special for the Crimea Development Corporation, by analogy with "Olimpstroem", and maybe even on the basis of "Olimpstroya", which now will not have to liquidate. Creates a state commission to restore the Crimea, where, in addition to Dmitry Kozak, will the Minister of Natural Resources Sergey Donskoy, the Minister of Regional Development Igor Slyunyaev and his deputy Yuri Reylyan.
At the same time, the Russian government is considering the possibility of a special economic zone of the Crimea. Thus, the work of domestic corporations on the peninsula will be stimulated by tax incentives.
As the director of the Institute of Globalization Problems Mikhail Delyagin, "Crimea in terms of business -. The empty space with the money already there is such a cutting that Klondike rest (although the forecast profitability and lower)."
According to Alexei Ulyukayev, the Russian business is ready to invest in Crimea projects $ 5 billion, and the priorities are considered tourism, agriculture and port services. In fact, domestic business has already begun to "sniff" to a new market for him. Delegation of "Business Russia" had time to visit the Crimea. Many Russian regions are preparing "business mission" in the Crimea. There were "brave" among private companies. So, a group of "Samson", Russia's largest wholesale supplier of office supplies, sent to Simferopol his team for a meeting with the local operators of the writing market. As stated in the "Samson", "partners have received an offer for all commodity groups assortment of the company" Samson "They are willing to cooperate only obstacle -.. Not yet resolved the issue with the transfer of Crimea to the Russian currency and tax laws, as well as the issue of transport links mainland Russia to the peninsula. " According to the "Co" CEO Sergey Fabrikant.ru Gabestro, a member of the General Council of "Business Russia" have already started negotiationson the "input" in the Crimea major retail chains. "In the short term, on the Crimea will make the company one way or another related to energy and transport infrastructure, - said the head of the Civil Code" Nexia Pacioli "Svetlana Romanova - First of all, the owners of portable and mobile power stations:. Power supply from Ukraine will only worsen. Secondly, for the same reason engineering company to construct power plants and network of energy facilities. third, designers and builders (if they learn to fit within the estimated limits) traffic bridge across the Kerch Strait. Fourth, "Aeroflot", which is obviously He will be forced to open new routes in the Crimea from different cities of Russia. "
But since the main revenues will undoubtedly be expected in the field of infrastructure construction, the Crimea will be primarily "fiefdom" of major Russian companies. Not casually Russian Union of Builders (RCC) has already opened its regional office in the peninsula. The curator of the new regional union is appointed Vice-President of the RCC, the ex-chairman of the StateRF system Shamuzafarov Anwar. RCC Working Group also went to the Crimea to assess the building capacity available there. As said PCC President Vladimir Yakovlev, "there is little that was built in the last twenty years, and it is necessary to understand the power of building organizations that are in the Crimea."
Timchenko and Rothenberg?
The most ambitious and the most tasty infrastructure project "reunification" is the construction of a bridge across the Kerch Strait. Transport Minister Maxim Sokolov believes that its construction will last not less than three and a half years, and the cost will be at least 50 billion rubles. This amount roughly comparable to the cost of building the bridge across the Lena river in Yakutia, which has already probrel reputation as the most expensive bridge in Russian history. Considering how to implement such projects in Russia before, there is no doubt that the tender for the construction of the bridge will involve large consortia of companies, but the "anchor" of their participants will be Arkady Rotenberg structures ( "Mostotrest", "Volgamost") and Gennady Timchenko ( "Most "," Stroytransgaz "). The Company" Volgamost "has already submitted its own draft of the project of the bridge cost $ 3 billion. The state construction of the bridge will be in charge hastily created" daughter "of state-owned" Avtodor ", OAO" The transport passage through the Kerch Strait "(TPKP) . In the next few days are expected to begin engineering surveys.
Another important "lot", acted out in connection with the Crimea, - repair peninsula roads. Rosavtodor estimated that for this purpose will have to spend 1.2 billion rubles. According to the head of the Federal Road Agency Roman Starovoyt to start funding going to take out the savings reserves. Due to the Crimean network of federal roads of Russia is expected to grow by approximately 1200 km. This "dip" will qualify the structure Rotenberg and Timchenko, as well as, probably, "Stroygazkonsalting" Ziyad Manasira company "Aerodromstroy" which owner called Sergei Solodovnikov, a person close to the mayor of Moscow, Sergei Sobyanin, as well as the major road of the Southern Federal District, such as a group of "Don" (owners - Alex Knyshov VladimirNikolai Kirsanov Imedashvili).
At the same time in the Crimea will develop a large-scale energy construction. Part of the power received from the Crimea in Ukraine, and now it will not flow, so that Crimea requires additional capacity. As long as the energy deficit on a peninsula covered with temporary mobile generators in 1400, brought by the Ministry of Emergency Situations of the Russian Federation. Carry them was close, as these generators have also been working on securing energy Olympics and Paralympics. But on the agenda - the construction of new thermal power capacities. Deputy Chairman of the Board of NP "Market Council" Vladimir Shkatov assess the needs of the peninsula in the new power of 1000 megawatts. While imported generators have a capacity of only 56 megawatts, in addition to May should be completed by the installation of nine mobile gas turbine power plants of about 200 MW.
Apply for these projects are: OAO "Mosenergo Energy", whose board of directors headed by the son of Arkady Rotenberg Igor Rothenberg, the company "Tekhnopromexport", a member of the state corporation"Rostec", and OAO "Globalelectroservice" Ziyavudin Magomedov.
"Flow" changing direction?
"The big cluster, an interesting Russian companies, gas production can be: in fact, according to many, the Crimea has impressive reserves of" blue fuel ", the field is so far poorly developed", - says CEO of "Technonikol" Vladimir Markov. However, it is the interest of "Gazprom" is associated not so much with gas reserves of the Black Sea shelf, as with the pipeline "South Stream", which should pass under the Black Sea from Anapa to Varna. The estimated cost of the project - 16 billion euros. The lion's share of the budget, "South Stream" should absorb the 900-kilometer underwater section megastroyki as the Black Sea and Baltic deeper "South Stream" will be more expensive "North" (EUR 7.4 billion). In 2014, the plan was to start the construction of the underwater part of the pipeline, but now, after the annexation of Crimea, the underwater portion can be reduced from 900 to 220 km (from Olenevka in Crimea to Romania). There are alreadyCamping version of the pipeline can now be referred to the Romanian shore, thereby enabling the number of gas consumers in another country. Moreover, the transfer of "blue fuel" will cost much cheaper. "Now," South Stream "will not the Turkish part of the shelf, and on the Crimean coast," - suggests the director of the Foundation for Social Research Vladimir Zvonovsky.
However, it is too early to count the dividends. Center for European Security Strategies analyst Frank Umbach believes that the EU can suspend the construction of a pipeline for political reasons. Director General of the Italian company Eni (20% owner of the "South Stream"), Paolo Scaroni also predicted the project "South Stream", "bleak future" as its prospects are directly connected with the situation around Crimea.
Business or PR?
Of particular interest is the fate of the Crimean winemaking. The largest producers of local wines - "Massandra", "New World", "Magarach" - belonged to the Ukrainian state, and they are now nationalized Crimean Govermentth. There is every reason to predict that over time, wineries will be privatized, and buyers will include representatives of the Russian business. There are already rumors that the new owner of the Crimean port will be our producer of sparkling wines "Abrau-Durso", founded by business ombudsman Boris Titov. However, the chairman of Paul "Abrau-Durso" Titov Board of Directors declared disinterest in group buying wine assets in the Crimea to stabilize the political situation in the region. "With regard to industries, but now pronounced I aspirations and activities still do not see, - says Sergey Gabestro -. As soon as the Crimea will be a free economic zone, I think that the peninsula will become an attractive investment, including industrial companies especially if we start from. the fact that the market - the countries of Europe and Turkey. "
Judging by current events as "guardian" of the Crimean wine did not Boris Titov and Moscow Region Governor Andrei Vorobyov. That he was approached by representatives of the Crimean wineindustries with a view to facilitate the movement of goods in Russia. The governor has held a special meeting of the Crimean wine producers with the Russian trade networks, where it was agreed that the large retail chains in Moscow will hold promotions to promote the Crimean wines, the products will be placed on separate shelves and mark stickers.
It was learned that billionaire Chechen origin Ruslan Baysarov going to invest in the tourist infrastructure of the Crimea 12 billion rbl., Having constructed there a hotel complex with 500 rooms, a wellness center on 200 seats, SPA-zone, several restaurants, and more. It is very likely that these investments will lay the burden on federal finances. His mountain resort in Chechnya Ruslan Baysarov hopes to build at the expense of loans or bank, or government guarantees, and in the Crimea, probably, it will build on the same conditions. "It all depends strongly on the policy, - says the managing partner of consulting company" FOK "Moses Furschik -. Of course, immediately comes up with the idea that we should make infrastructure Corp.orations - "Gazprom", FSK, Russian Railways, the largest construction companies. But suddenly they "asked" to help the government and carry out their work at a discounted price? It is not entirely clear situation for the tourism industry. Travel agencies can sell tickets to the Crimea before, so for them a large growth in revenue may not be. Investors and operators of tourism facilities are likely to encounter problems with property in the Crimea, as well as competition with respect to Sochi, so here fast profits should be expected. Perhaps, in any case, something will earn major suppliers of the products, but it is unlikely it will be very much in their business scale, as the retail market of the Crimea is not very capacious. It is possible that some of the largest Russian agro-holdings on good terms get serious land or productive assets in the region. Indirect positive effect of the annexation of Crimea could feel the defense companies due to rising international tensions surrounding Russia. But the overall economic problems arising are fully capable to block these small effects produced by individualcompanies. "