The retail real estate market in large cities of Russia stopped growing: under the influence of the crisis, developers stopped the construction of new facilities. Now, developers will have to develop smaller cities, and in Moscow to compete for transport and transfer hubs, where it is allowed to create retail space.
In cities with a population of one million people, the growth in the index of retail real estate has stopped, according to Knight Frank. In 10 of the 15 cities in the sample, according to the results of the first half of 2018 this indicator remained at the level fixed for the same period last year. A slight increase occurred in Moscow (from 487 to 502 square meters per 1,000 inhabitants), Krasnoyarsk (from 316 to 338 square meters), Kazan (from 327 to 357 square meters), Rostov-on-Don 439 to 486 square meters), Voronezh (from 464 to 497 square meters).
The lack of new construction projects is the result of the decline in developer activity that occurred at the beginning of the current crisis, "explains Evgenia Hakberdieva, head of the department of retail centers of the department of retail real estate of Knight Frank.
Until 2014, the market was actively growing, in 2013-2018 (considering the results for the first half of the year), the availability of retail space for 1 thousand people in most cities with a million population grew twice or more: in Moscow - from 311 to 502 square meters. m, in Ufa - from 206 to 461 square meters. m, in Perm - from 118 to 250 square meters. m, in Yekaterinburg - from 321 to 671 square meters. m.
According to Mrs. Hakberdiyeva, now in Moscow, an additional factor in the braking of the market was the deficit of construction sites - "this prompted the development of community centers in residential complexes, as well as trade centers within the boundaries of transport and transfer junctions."
Not only volumes of retail property entering are reduced, but also the parameters of previously announced projects. "Developers change the concept of future facilities or shift the terms of construction and commissioning," says Olga Yasko, business development director at Cushman & Wakefield. According to her, in Russia the construction of 2 million sq. M. m of commercial real estate, half of this volume - in cities with a population of one million. Projects will unfreeze when the developer finds the conditions appropriate. "But now it's slow. Additional influence is exerted by a change in the consumption pattern, "Ms Yasko argues. Visits to hypermarkets for everyday goods are becoming less popular. According to Nielsen, seven out of ten trips to the store fall into the format of "at home". Hypermarkets - anchor tenants of most trade centers. Fashion retailers, the expert continues, are forced to compete with online trading and adapt to reducing consumer spending.
According to Yevgenia Hakberdiyeva, in the future retailers and developers will master poorly covered retail real estate in Khanty-Mansiysk, Yakutsk, Makhachkala and others, where there is a need for modern trade centers. This is confirmed in the group "Tashir" (developing network of trade centers "Rio"): "In the regions, the demand for quality areas is not only from international and Russian companies, but also a local pool of tenants."
Malltech representative Kirill Stepanov believes that a temporary lull will go to the market for good - "this will help fill the objects that opened earlier." According to him, the company sees development prospects in at least five regions, but they are not ready to name them. One of the options for adapting to changed conditions is the simplification of the format and the cheaper construction.
Developers of large objects with a significant entertainment component have to take into account the increase in the payback period of projects. "The purchase of quality facilities in small towns with a population of about 300 thousand people is a popular request, but there is nothing to buy," concludes Olga Yasko.