"A unique feature of Russia - the share of the public sector"
- In Russia, as we know, developed a set of exclusivity. In your opinion, are there any problems in the Russian economy, which are inherent only to her? Or are we dealing with a set of standard problems?
- The situation in the Russian economy does not seem to me extraordinary. There are other countries that have faced similar problems: Saudi Arabia, Iran, Mexico, Indonesia. These are the countries that are dependent on exports of natural resources. Russia depends not only on the export of oil and gas, but also on the export of wood, metal, that is, the economy is more diversified.
However, to truly diversify the economy in Russia did not work, it is impossible to do now and unlikely to succeed. A unique feature of Russia - a significant proportion of the public sector. Abroad and within the country, not all realize how great the role of government at all levels. Up to 55% of production in Russia accounts for state-owned enterprises. And if we take into account the role of the banks, it turns out that the state plays a colossusbattening role.
While in other countries during the crisis, there may be some reform in Russia all depends on policymakers. The absence of political competition makes little sense for practical activities. People talk, but do nothing.
- You are offered two years ago to develop the Russian economy through investments in education, technological breakthrough and turning to the East, at the same time offered to test reforms in individual regions. All this is true?
- These recommendations are still effective. It is important that the government or the parliament (it is also possible, but not for Russia at this point) was a reformist bloc. He has to address complex problems. The President and the Prime Minister could organize such a unit. The difficulty is not in the fact that no professionals. [Economic Development Minister Alexei] Ulyukayev - a good specialist, I often talked to him, Deputy Prime Minister Arkady Dvorkovich and First Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov - first-class professionals. They all know what to do. Not enough only implementation.
- What to expect in 2016?
- Growth of Budanear zero. It does not depend on oil prices. I hope that it will grow, lest worsening social situation. It is not clear where growth can take reserves. In Russia, there is theoretically competitive sectors: aeronautics, nanotechnology, heavy industry, biomedical technology. But for their development needs the money right now go to the "Rosneft" and others are not the most innovative state corporations. If this continues, then rely on the growth of the economy does not have the next two years.
In the current situation it will be very difficult to carry out large-scale transformations. For complex reform, including pensions, to develop mechanisms to support state-owned enterprises - whether to do it directly from the budget or through the development institutions - the reformers must be political support, and a request for their activities. Now this is not - and, hence, will not be successful transformation. Especially noticeable was in recent years, when it became clear that an urgent need to act.
- China, for example, also faced a number oleconomic and financial problems - the devaluation of the yuan, slowing growth, a decrease in foreign exchange reserves. Did you expect such a scenario?
- Yes, I expect. A few years ago the World Bank have been studies which indicated that in the middle of this decade China will face difficulties. The reason for the current situation in China, primarily demographic. Three years ago, I stopped labor force growth. Each year, the number of free hands is reduced. China's economy depends on the industry, which is suffering from demography in the first place.
In turn, the Chinese industry is represented primarily in construction and infrastructure projects, the rate of which fell in the past two years. The Chinese government in 2013 encourages foreign projects of their companies.
This experience could be used and Russia, but here it does not work. Note also that the GDP growth in China in 2015 will be around 6.5%, and in Russia - about zero.
- China has for many years been one of the world leaders in terms of growth of GDP, remainings with an undemocratic country. Why do some non-democratic countries have successfully modernize their economy, and others not?
- China and Russia is a big difference. Russian located in Europe. Russian specialists have more chances to find employment abroad. Competition for highly skilled professionals in the Old World are much higher. China - a closed system. In Sochi, a few months ago, Deputy Prime Minister Olga Golodets said that, according to its figures, about 2.5 million Russians work and study in Europe. It's not much, but if these people - highly qualified - a substantial amount.
In addition to China, there are other non-democratic countries where the economy is good feeling. Almost all of them authorities restrict freedom of movement. Fortunately, there are no restrictions in Russia. I see in the LSE [London School of Economics; Dyankov is a professor of finance at the London School of Economics] a lot of Russian students. People know where they have more opportunities.
"In a few years, Doing Business will replace other codes"
- Are you one of the authorstori rating Doing Business (see. help), if you follow a change in its methodology?
- Yes, the rating Doing Business - my baby. In the past two years, the method of drawing up the index has changed little. Part of the changes were needed - still ranking since inception 15 years have passed, and now we know much more, but some of the changes I do not like. It is a bureaucratic changes that help the rich more than the developing countries.
When the project was created, there were other similar indices: Heritage Foundation, Transparency International, etc. But they were all subjective, that is, based on surveys. Our index is based on objective factors, we do not ask people - we estimate the laws and institutions. I do not like the fact that in recent years began to appear in the index of subjective elements. Approximately 30% of the changes in methodology account for subjective innovations, including this poll. The survey - a subjective element.
World ranking of countries on the ease of doing business and the protection of property rights of Doing Business was presented to the World Bank in 2003. calculation methodology wasdesigned Dyankova and his colleagues a year ago in an article for a scientific journal Quarterly Journal of Economics. Rating is available annually.
rating methodology changes frequently, for example, in the Doing Business-2016 (published October 27, 2015 th, Russia rose to 11 degrees, up to 51 th place) were the parameters of "dealing with construction permits", "holding power", "property registration ". This year, the ranking will take into account the time required for auditing tax return.
Doing Business does not include the costs of corruption: in the accompanying report in October noted that the correlation between the country's position in Doing Business rating and the perception of Corruptions Perceptions of corruption reaches 0.75.
- It is impossible that the Doing Business reflect a purely theoretical situation, but the reality may be quite different?
- It is necessary to understand how the laws are enforced, and that the politicians do. The main problem for business in Russia and some other countries - is not what is written in the law and how it is applied. Enforcement depends on the country's top officials. The law does not specify who will receive state subtreeHCS or financing from state banks. index methodology can not explain why, "Rosneft" will receive government support, and LUKOIL - no. All clear that in the first case it is a state-owned company, whose president - a special man, and the second - a good company, but private. In Russia, it turns out that sometimes common to all the rules do not work for a narrow group of people.
- Why Doing Business does not include the costs of corruption, because it directly affects the conduct of business?
- That would be great. We have a lot of thought about how to do this. Any rating Transparency International. But he and other ratings are subjective, dependent on the polls. If the political system is not very democratic or not democratic at all, the impact on respondents is easy.
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development conducted surveys in post-communist countries. It turned out that most non-corrupt countries - Turkmenistan, Tajikistan. It somehow does not fit with reality. We wanted to include corruption in the Doing Business, but declined due to difficulties with the methodology. Who is the best index of corruption - at Transparency International.
- What corruption is typical for Russia? For example, there is such a thing - a progressive corruption is when officials are involved in the distribution of income entrepreneurs. It is also frowned upon, but it is believed, it is progressive in nature, as it promotes the growth of additional revenue.
- Corruption is of two types. In the event that you are talking about bribes given to circumvent the law or inconvenient to work quietly in the absence of regulation. It's not great, but experts believe that this type of corruption helps to develop the economy.
There is another type of corruption, which is very important for Russia, - corruption in the higher echelons of power. It's not the traffic police and not the police, it's governors and officials above the rank. They decide who will work and receive public money. The role of officials has increased after the introduction of sanctions, as increased demand for funding from the state. It turns out that people and corporations close to the authorities, get the money and privileges. This corruption is difficult to explore, and it is very dangerous. Cope or weaken this proproblems may be political competition.
- In the ranking of Doing Business-2016 in the list of 20 leaders were only five countries in the eurozone and in the top 10 only came Finland. Italy, for example, is on the 45th place, while Russia - on the 51st, and it is ahead of, say, Luxembourg. The Old World is losing its position in the global economy?
- Indeed, Europe is losing economic initiative. This trend has been going on for several years. New Asian economies - not only Singapore and Malaysia - are developing very quickly. Another good example - Kazakhstan. In general, Asian countries put a lot of effort to ensure that support economic growth, without fear of radical reforms.
- Did you expect such a success Project Doing Business, when working on its creation?
- Our goal was to create an objective index, but I did not expect that he would be such a long and interesting life. I am sure that in a few years there will be other indexes. Doing Business has gained such fame and popularity, because it was launched in 2000. It happened right nAfter large-scale economic and financial crises in different regions - the Far East, Russia, Mexico. Society is interested in the economy when its condition is unsatisfactory. When all is well - it's interesting only to scientists. Politicians around the world in the early 2000s looking for a scale that could give them a reference point, - Doing Business gave them the opportunity.
"It is unclear which institutions are responsible for the development of the economy"
- You were the Minister of Finance and Deputy Prime Minister of Bulgaria in 2009-2013. As you think of Eastern Europe has the potential to become an engine of growth for the economy of the entire European Union?
- Yes, I think that the opportunities are there. Even last year, Slovakia, Czech Republic and even Hungary have shown a decent GDP growth. Economy of Slovakia, for example, increased by 5% in 2015. It would be great to Russian officials also have learned more from this experience.
Slovakia, for example, carried out the pension reform, which is impossible in Western Europe and Russia. The pension system in the Western European countries there is almost unchanged from the postwar era. Ifin Western Europe and 15% of GDP goes to pension costs in Eastern - only 7%. Russia, too, could make use of these developments.
For Russia, the most important in the Eastern European experience - the development of regions. You can look at what is being done in this area, Poland and Hungary. Regional development could give a boost to the entire Russian economy.
- The euro zone faces almost every year with the Greek crisis. What do you think, in the current form, the EU monetary model is adequate or in need of reform?
- The problem is not in the monetary union, and that the single currency was another negative factor. Greece does not produce anything that would be in demand abroad. There is still no industry. The problem is that countries with uncompetitive economies have become members of the eurozone. I do not understand how, for example, Croatia could be an effective participant in the monetary union. This monetary union - one of the most stable structures of the eurozone. I do not think that this situation will change. Sami European politicians say that the euro zone - the main component of the EU.
Behold the main problem of the EU - where, as in Russia, it is unclear which institutions are responsible for the development of the economy. Former US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner in 2014 published the book "Stress Test: Reflections on the financial crisis." In it, he writes that when in Washington when he was Minister of Finance discussed the rescue of Greece and Italy, the US leadership simply did not understand who to call in Europe. Who makes the decisions? Is the European Commission, but at the time the European Commissioner for the economy was not exactly experienced. Therefore, they establish contacts with the European Central Bank and the German Government, that is, with Chancellor Angela Merkel and Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble.
The EU is still in the process of registration. The crisis originated with migrants - all repeats. In Brussels, there is a man who is working on this problem. So again we see the German government at the forefront.
- Once you leave the post of rector of the New Economic School in October last year retained if you have any position in the university?
- Prior to the beginning of December, I was an owlDirectors are but then the Council decided that it would be better if there remain people who live in Russia and can be given to the development of the university much attention as possible. The board of directors includes Ulyukayev, the former Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin and deputy chairman Ksenia Yudaeva. I am currently a professor at the LSE and a regular professor at the New Economic School, where I have students.
- Do you follow the Russian media? There seemed to be a request for an explanation of society rising prices and declining salaries?
- The main reason for the interest - to stop economic growth. People are trying to understand what to expect, so economists are becoming more popular society.
- Russian and foreign economists, who had previously worked in government or associated with public institutions, very carefully comment on the impact of the political situation in Russia on the state of the economy and business. When you were rector of NES, if you tried in his public speeches to be more diplomatic?
- I always say what I think, with the expert position. There were many times when we were talking about that holding Neobhodimyh Russian reforms - pension, higher education, subsidies and mechanisms of state support - difficult in countries with one-party political system.
- Have the your advice Russian officials?
- Yes, frequently accessed. Not only to me as a NES rector, but also to our professors and specialists in macroeconomics, foreign trade and investment. They participated in various government commissions. Discussions and debates were, I am sure, continue today. The question is, whether taken any action since. The Russian government there are people who are well versed in the economy. Russia's problem is not that people do not know how to stimulate economic growth, and that they do not dare to do it.
He was born in the Bulgarian town of Lovech 13 July 1970. His great-grandfather Miho Minkov was one of the delegates to the Constitutional Assembly in 1879, during which the first Constitution of Bulgaria was adopted.
In 1989, Djankov entered the Bulgarian Supreme Economic Institute. Karl Marx (now - Supermarketa National and World Economy). In 1990 he continued his education in the United States, where he first became a Bachelor of Economics at the Geneva College in Pennsylvania and later received a doctorate (PhD) from the University of Michigan.
In the World Bank economist, came in 1995 and became a consultant for the European and Central Asian areas. The bank and its units Dyankov worked until 2009. The most famous project Dyankova bank - ranking ease of doing business Doing Business: it was introduced in 2003 and has since been considered one of the key indicators of the quality of economic policy.
In 2009, Djankov returned to his homeland, where he became finance minister and deputy prime minister in the government of Boyko Borisov. Economist became the youngest minister in the EU after the head of the British Treasury George Osborne. At his post Dyankov was known as a supporter of the liberalization and fiscal conservatism. As one of the key measures to stimulate GDP growth, he advocated low taxes. In 2012, Djankov parallel led the European Bank for Reconstruction and Supervisory BoardItijah and worked in this position a year.
After leaving the government in 2013 because of disagreements with Borisov on farm subsidies Dyankov was invited to lead the New Economic School. In the spring of that year, her former Rector - Russian economist Sergei Guriev - moved to France, fearing persecution by the Yukos case. In October 2015 th Dyankov resigned as rector of NES by mutual agreement with the board of directors of the school, and in December came from the NES Board of Directors.
Who is your main place of work, he calls the London School of Economics (LSE), where is a professor of finance.
Dyankov passionate about the study of the history of Bulgaria, is the author of more than 70 scientific articles. In 2014, he and a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, Anders Aslund became co-editor of the book "The Great Revival: what we have learned the victory of capitalism over communism", it refers to the need to continue the democratic reforms in Eastern Europe.